Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Jose Enrique deserves the right to win his spot back

Whether we bring in another left back or not (hopefully not Moreno though), Jose Enrique has the right to win his place back.  If he can return from knee injury and produce as he did the season prior, he should be our first choice with Flanagan being the 'defensive'/cup option.

year2010-112011-122012-132013-14
clubNewcastleLiverpoolLiverpoolLiverpool
age24252627
app(subs)3633(2)25(4)6(2)
mins312329942257604
p9034.733.325.16.7
goals0020
assist1242
chances3036268
npgp90000.080
gcp900.030.060.240.3
ccp900.871.081.041.19
ap900.030.060.160.3
ccv3.45.615.425.2
pass%7780.676.780.4
bp%--3740.8
sacc%21.123.136.450
shot%009.10
TTI901413.315.611.2
gap9011.050.920.6
gsp901.041.21.911.64
gop900.040.150.991.04
tgop-0.030.130.741.32
tp901.732.072.871.64
tack %--75.353.3
intp901.670.931.391.34
clrp901.761.411.952.99
dribpp900.260.360.360.3
bsp900.350.150.120.15

Even in the short time he saw the pitch last year, he impressed.  His 25.2 chance created value was ridiculously good and even 15.2 from the season before is solid.  His tackle success rate of  75.3% from his second year at LFC is phenomenal as well, basically he succeeded on three out of four tackles attempted.

So how does his season before compare to Flanagan and Moreno from last season?

EnriqueFlanaganMoreno
npgp900.080.050.11
gcp900.240.10.11
ccp901.040.620.71
ap900.160.050
ccv15.48.10
pass%76.783.778.9
bp%3742.636.5
sacc%36.442.917
shot%9.114.313
TTI9015.69.28.5
gap900.921.811.6
gsp901.9131.98
gop900.991.190.38
tgop0.741.320.45
tp902.873.81.94
tack %75.345.739.6
intp901.391.92.72
clrp901.953.61.64
dribpp900.361.90.82
bsp900.120.20.3

Enrique is the only one above who had a goals on pitch average higher than his team and his chance created value is unparalleled.  The damning stat is Enrique's TTI90, 15.7 is dreadful, but in the handful of matches he participated in last season, he had a TTI90 of 11.2.  That's not good, but hopefully it's at least a sign of progress.  Other than that, neither Flanagan nor Moreno offer more than Enrique other than potential and years left of service and that doesn't make the latter worth £20m.

Victor Moses: worse than Aspas?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Victor Moses' loan stay last season was a disaster.  In fact, ever since Moses joined Chelsea from Wigan, his career has down-spiraled, but was he really worth all the hype to begin with?

club2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-14
yearWiganWiganWiganWig/CheLiverpool
age1920212223
app(subs)2(12)8(13)36(2)13(11)6(13)
mins44381532121215651
p904.99.135.713.57.2
goals11611
assist33110
chances1116412210
npgp900.200.110.170.070.14
gcp900.820.440.200.150.14
ccp902.241.761.151.631.39
ap900.610.330.030.070
ccv27.218.82.64.30
pass%79.373.281.282.586.6
bp%---52.650.5
sacc%21.429.229.121.436.4
shot%7.14.25.83.69.1
TTI9016.714.511.110.310
gap901.631.430.760.821.38
gsp902.041.761.511.71.66
gop900.410.330.750.880.28

Though he has improved over the years, especially passing and ball-handling, he has yet to develop into the player for which Chelsea paid £10.12m and at 23, he probably never will.  His goals on pitch last season, and basically throughout his career, was dreadful. 0.28? For a club that averaged 1.32? A full goal! That is mind-bottling.  Just for perspective, Aspas had a 0.94 gopd last season.  In fact, let's compare their output from 2013-14:

AspasMoses
npgp9000.14
gcp900.230.14
ccp901.861.39
ap900.230
ccv12.40
pass%75.486.6
bp%58.150.5
sacc%5036.4
shot%09.1
TTI9014.410
gap900.471.38
gsp901.411.66
gop900.940.28

Moses is the better passer, though his 50.5% back pass rate is only comparable to Aspas.  If Moses hadn't scored his lone goal of the season against Swansea, his stats would be unbelievably bad.  Arguing who had the better year between the two would be like comparing dog feces with cat dung, who cares? They both smell like shit.

I don't see what Rodgers sees in him, he doesn't seem to have amazing athletic ability to make up for lack of skill. Honestly he should beg Mourinho to sell him on the cheap to a mid-table club like Stoke or Sunderland, so he can at least have a chance to become a 'cult hero'.  Something tells me Martinez would probably take him back under his wing at Everton as well.

Shaqiri, Rojo, Sanchez, & Origi: The transfer vultures are circling

Though it appears Lazar Markovic is a likely signing, others who were once possibly on our radar are gone or slowly disappearing.  Of the four I listed in this post's title, the only one whom I'm disappointed about is Shaqiri. Apparently Bayern Munich offered him more money, but will that translate into more playing time for the loaded German side? Not that he'll be handed a spot at Liverpool, but Der FCB isn't called 'FC Hollywood' for nothing.

Apparently Roma are now in talks to sign the Swiss International.  If I were Shaqiri and an Serie A club came for me with an offer equivalent or greater than what I could make anywhere else, I'd sign faster than an imploding Brazilian defense.  Shaqiri will run rampant in Italy and his has the technical prowess to persevere as well.

Personally I have not been all the impressed with Marcos Rojo at the World Cup.  He's got that WC hype feeling.  He has received praises for his play in Portugal, but his stats do not overwhelm other than his card collection of 14 yellows and 3 reds in 33 matches.  If that's not a red flag, I don't know what is.

I don't care about Sanchez.  He prefers Arsenal and that tells me he's absolutely clueless.  The reason being his family wants to 'live in London' is just lame.  Oh well, have fun getting rotated to death and make sure not to make Arsene angry, you wouldn't like him when he's angry.

Finally we get to Origi, who I have already written about. Now there are reports that Spurs are interested in him.  I couldn't care less either way considering we would probably loan him back to Lille anyhow.  Seems ridiculous to me to spend £10m for a player just to loan him back to the club we bought him from.  What are we, Chelsea now? And if Origi wants to know how things will probably work out for him at Tottenham, I suggest he give Erik Lamela a call.

Oh and we missed out on Ashley Cole.  You can only imagine the tears.  Let's just hope we 'miss out' on Bertrand as well.  I will really be crying then.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

You have to feel for Iago Aspas

The wide-eyed Spaniard has become the butt of many jokes, the top clown in the circus of mockery, and the subject of a very amusing twitter account.  I previously wrote about how the former Celta de Vigo star showed little promise for his £7.7m transfer fee, but let's see what that got us:

goals0npgp900pass%75.4gap900.47
assist1gcp900.23bp%58.1gsp901.41
chances8ccp901.86sacc%50gop900.94
ap900.23shot%0
ccv12.4TTI9014.4

Surprisingly, Aspas has a decent chance created per 90 average of 1.86 and chance created value of 12.4.  Unfortunately that's about it, his piss poor passing, abysmal turnover rate, and goals-on-pitch difference of 0.94 aren't worth  £770,000.

It started out so promising though.  He scored 4 goals in the preseason, including one in his first match, a curling beaut of a strike from outside of the box against Preston.  In our opening fixture versus Stoke at Anfield, he assisted on what would be the game-winning goal.  Then he did little else save his only official goal as a Liverpool player, when Oldham came to Anfield for their FA Cup tie in January.

You have to wonder what Rodgers has in store for Aspas.  I would hope he's planning to sell him, apparently Sevilla will take him on the cheap.  At this point getting anything back for him would be a plus,  £7.7m is awfully expensive for a mascot.

The transfer terrorists and their sneaky, little dirty bombs

If you are like me, you are already tired of all the speculations and half-fabrications pertaining to potential transfers involving our beloved club.  The silly season is upon us and since my two pence is worth at least one-fiftieth quid, I figure I'll have a go at deciphering through this radioactive mess.  I don't claim to have an advantage of who we may bring in, but I can at least give my thoughts on who is 'surplus to the cause'.

Lucas Leiva
I'm really on the fence about Lucas.  As much as I think we should keep him, part of me thinks the Lucas of three seasons ago is gone and he shan't return.  His injuries have become too frequent and though his passing and ball-handling skills have improved, he appears slower than ever and that's saying a lot considering pace was never one of his strengths.  At least now, with the addition of Can, we won't have to rely on him as much.

Daniel Agger
Absolutely not, losing Agger would be a greater loss than losing Suarez.  He was our best centre back last year and unless Sakho proves his worth early on next season, Agger should be around for a few more years.

Iago Aspas
Here's an interesting stat concerning Aspas... oh wait, there are no interesting stats concerning him.  Give'em a ticket and say bon voyage.

Fabio Borini
Even without the addition of Rickie Lambert, Borini should be shipped out.  In 2692 Premiership minutes, playing for Sunderland, Liverpool, and Chelsea, he has scored 8 goals, 3 of which are penalties, and assisted on 3 more.  For a comparison, he scored 9 goals in 1680 minutes for Roma in Serie A.  He doesn't have the pace nor the technical ability to make up for the lack of pace to make it in the Prem.  I say sell him to Sunderland or use him as bait to get a versatile defender like Federico Fazio.

Ousama Assaidi
Assaidi had a decent spell at Stoke last season, but not enough to really consider keeping him.  His ccp90 of 1.53, shooting accuracy of 45%, shot % of 20%, and a TTI90 of 8.6 are all respectable numbers, but he'll be 26 in August.  If he was 23, I'd say keep him around for another season, but it's time to cut ties and try to get back at least some of what we paid for him.

Jack Robinson
Robinson's loan spell at Blackpool probably did more for his character development than it did for his skills. Blackpool started the season in decent form, sitting on 31 points 17 matches into the season, than the ship ran aground.  They lost 20 of their remaining 29 matches, even bringing in Barry Ferguson as the manager did little to help their slide.  Was Robinson integral to their fall? Not really.  Despite picking up 3 red cards, 2 of which were in their first 17 matches, Robinson's output was respectable:

npgp900pass%71.7gap901.44intp902.27
gcp900.1bp%37.3gsp900.83clrp905.3
ccp900.77sacc%8.3gop90-0.61bsp900.35
ap900.1shot%0tgop90-0.61adwp901.4
ccv12.5TTI9011.7tp901.95adwon%57.1
tack %51.3

Ferguson even deployed Robinson at left mid for 4 matches with mixed results.  Being only 20, I expect him to be loaned out again and hopefully show more promise than last season.

As for Suso, Wisdom, Kelly, Coady, Yesil, and Ibe, unless they vehemently demand to leave, we should hold on to them.  The first three can contribute now, while the latter three probably need seasoning at a Championship side to improve their game.

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

minspp90gagap90gsgsp90diff
Coutinho232325.8371.43783.021.59
Sterling222024.7311.26692.801.54
Agger142115.8181.14422.661.52
Suarez296232.9471.43962.921.49
Sturridge226725.2311.23682.701.47
Johnson251527.9381.36792.831.47
Henderson312934.8421.21932.671.47
Allen144316.0211.31442.751.44
Skrtel322135.8501.40992.771.37
Gerrard289532.2441.37862.671.30
Flanagan189021.0381.81633.001.19
Lucas189621.1271.28492.321.04
Toure144316.0201.25362.251.00
Sakho147816.4251.52382.320.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.

Popular Posts