Rising French star to 'replace' Suarez

Alexandre Lacazette is a 23-year-old forward who plays for Lyon in Ligue 1 and the France national football team.  He's got great ball skills, passing vision, and is a solid finisher.  Last season he came into his own, netting 15 goals in 36 appearances.  Here is his output from that campaign:

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.47	0.56	1.27	0.09	7.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
77.3	52.9	47.6	17.9	11.2
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.58	1.09	0.49	0.32	0.17

At first glance, that chance created value is dismal.  It basically means he is not setting up his teammates with good looks at goal or his teammates take bad shots or they are horrible finishers.  The fact that his teammates took 51% of their shots outside of the box leads me to believe answer number two is most likely why his ccv was so poor.  Still, it's an area in need of improvement.

His passing could see some development as well, a 52.9% back pass percentage tells me that his 77.3% passing rate is misleading, but at least he isn't turning over the ball at an obscene rate.  An 11.2 true turnover index is about what Sterling and Coutinho post.

There are other positives, he is only 23 and will only probably only cost about £16m.  I don't know if we necessarily need him though and maybe another year at Lyon would be best for all.  If he can improve on last season and score 20+ goals, he probably won't go up in value more than £25m, but he'll be a proven talent, not just a flash in the pan. A 'replacement' for Suarez though? I think not.

Here is a video of him that shows his fancy footwork. 

Wilfried Bony: All is fair in love and transfers, Spurs

Wilfried Bony had a pretty impressive first year in England, more impressive than most who come over from the Eredivisie.  Suarez didn't have that kind of year, not even close, neither did Christian Eriksen, though he was relatively close.  The most impressive thing about Bony's season was how much he got better as the season progressed.  He scored 12 goals and set up 3 more in the final 19 Prem matches.  In fact, he scored 5 and had 1 assist in the final 4.

Latest reports are that we are trying to 'hijack' Spurs bid for Bony.  Well, if that's not tongue-in-cheek, Sigurdsson anyone? I am all for signing the 25-year-old Ivorian striker, but not for the reportedly £40m that Swansea is asking.  That truly is mental.  Anything more than £35m would be too much risk of funds.

So how does he compare to let's say Sturridge?

	Bony	Sturridge
app(subs)	27(7)	26(3)
mins	2470	2267
p90	27.4	25.2
goals	16	21
assist	4	7
chances	25	29
npgp90	0.44	0.83
gcp90	0.73	1.1
ccp90	0.91	1.2
ap90	0.15	0.28
ccv	16.5	23.3
pass%	74.1	79.3
bp%	49.6	53.4
sacc%	37	42.4
shot%	14.8	21.2
TTI90	15.3	11
gap90	1.5	1.23
gsp90	1.62	2.7
gop90	0.12	1.47
tgop	0	1.32

Stat definitions can be found here.

Sturridge takes nearly every category save back pass percentage, but Bony is not far off.  Not bad for a first year Prem player compared to a well seasoned one.  If history stays true to itself, Bony will have an even better second season now that he's adapted to the English game and way of lifestyle.  He'll post even more impressive numbers with teammates like Sturridge, Coutinho, Sterling, and Gerrard, a luxury he did not have in Swansea.

One thing he can forget about is taking pens.  He enjoyed the padding of his stats last season with four of them, for us he will be at least third in line behind Gerrard and Sturridge, with Coutinho probably getting the nod over him if the Brazilian is on the pitch.

Will his signing actually happen? I'm not holding my breathe, but if does, suck it Tottenham.

https://docs.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B0oQNIr-YdiyVWVyY2t3T2R3VVE

Is Marco Reus the 'dream signing'?

It seems some people believe that Marco Reus would be the 'dream signing' for us.  Well, other than the fact that he would cost at least £35m to sign him, yes, he would be a great pick up, but do we really need him? I don't think so, he is a better all-round attacking midfielder than Sterling and Coutinho, but he's also 6 years older than the former and 3 years senior the latter. Let's look at their outputs from last season:

	Marco Reus	Coutinho	Sterling
age	25	22	19
app(subs)	26(4)	28(5)	24(9)
mins	2208	2323	2220
p90	24.5	25.8	24.7
goals	16	5	9
assist	13	7	5
chances	90	64	51
npgp90	0.41	0.19	0.36
gcp90	1.18	0.47	0.57
ccp90	3.67	2.5	2.06
ap90	0.53	0.27	0.2
ccv	14.4	10.8	9.7
pass%	74.5	80.6	81.7
bp%	44.5	36.7	46.8
sacc%	43.6	28.7	48.9
shot%	14.5	7	20
TTI90	17.6	11	12.1
gap90	1.27	1.43	1.26
gsp90	2.41	3.02	2.8
gop90	1.14	1.59	1.54
tgop	1.24	1.32	1.32

Stats definitions can be found here.

Reus seriously dominates the individual p90s, his 3.67 chance created per 90 is impressive alone, but 14.4% of those are converted into goals, better than both his above counterparts.  His passing overall could improve and probably the most perplexing stat is his goals on pitch 90 being -0.10 less than his team's gop average. Also his true turnover rate is a dismal 17.6, mainly due to his errant passing and being easily dispossessed.

Do we really need to spend £35m on an attacking midfielder? Don't get me wrong, I understand we can play him 'in the hole' behind Sturridge, but we could also you those funds to buy better defenders and not have to try and outscore all of our opponents.  Plus I think we need to give Sterling, Coutinho, and even Jordan Henderson as much time on the pitch as possible to so they can become as good as Reus is now.

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

	mins	pp90	ga	gap90	gs	gsp90	diff
Coutinho	2323	25.8	37	1.43	78	3.02	1.59
Sterling	2220	24.7	31	1.26	69	2.80	1.54
Agger	1421	15.8	18	1.14	42	2.66	1.52
Suarez	2962	32.9	47	1.43	96	2.92	1.49
Sturridge	2267	25.2	31	1.23	68	2.70	1.47
Johnson	2515	27.9	38	1.36	79	2.83	1.47
Henderson	3129	34.8	42	1.21	93	2.67	1.47
Allen	1443	16.0	21	1.31	44	2.75	1.44
Skrtel	3221	35.8	50	1.40	99	2.77	1.37
Gerrard	2895	32.2	44	1.37	86	2.67	1.30
Flanagan	1890	21.0	38	1.81	63	3.00	1.19
Lucas	1896	21.1	27	1.28	49	2.32	1.04
Toure	1443	16.0	20	1.25	36	2.25	1.00
Sakho	1478	16.4	25	1.52	38	2.32	0.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.

Gerrard & Sturridge are more important than Suarez

Again and again I'm trying to convince myself that the loss of Suarez won't be that great, well, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  I went through each match last year and broke down goal importance according to whether a point was salvaged or gained (crucial goal) or gave us an advantage (important goal).  I did the same for assists as well.  Then I applied a points system: 3 points for crucial goal or assist and 1 point for important goal or assist.  Here are the results:

	crucial goal	imp goal	crucial asst	imp assist	value
Gerrard	5	4	4	4	35
Sturridge	7	6	1	2	32
Suarez	0	11	1	4	18
Coutinho	2	1	0	2	9
Agger	1	1	1	1	8
Henderson	1	0	0	3	6
Enrique	0	0	1	1	4
Sterling	0	2	0	2	4
Aspas	0	0	1	0	3
Skrtel	0	3	0	0	3
Toure	0	0	0	1	1
Sakho	0	1	0	0	1
Johnson	0	0	0	1	1
Allen	0	1	0	0	1

Not a single goal and only one assist from Suarez was 'crucial' to our title chase last year.  He did score 11 'important' goals though, unfortunately that also means he essentially scored 20 'meaningless' goals or goals that wouldn't have mattered had he scored them or not.

We will be fine if Suarez leaves as long as we improve defensively.  Yes, he's fun to watch and I wish he would play the rest of his days in a Liverpool shirt, but in the end, we go on.

The age-old debate: Coutinho vs Ozil

Ever since Michael Owen trolled Arsenal fans by claiming Coutinho is superior to Ozil, an endless debate has spawned.  One thing before we look at their complete stats from last season.  They usually don't play the same position, but when Coutinho plays central midfield, Ozil's primary position, the Brazilian has the higher production.  I'll explain more after the stats.

	Coutinho	Ozil
age	22	25
app (sub)	28(5)	25(1)
mins	2323	2139
goals	5	5
assists	7	9
chances	64	76
npg90	0.19	0.21
gcp90	0.47	0.59
ccp90	2.5	3.2
ap90	0.27	0.38
ccv	10.8	11.9
pass %	80.6	88
bp %	36.7	41.5
sacc %	28.7	60
shot %	7	16.7
TTI90	11	12.4

As you can see, Ozil edges out in most every stat, but he should.  He's older, more experienced and usually plays the same position, central attacking midfielder.  Which takes us back to my aforementioned point.

Coutinho played 16 matches at central midfield and in those matches he scored 3 goals and served up 7 assists.  At that rate, had he played all his matches at that spot, he would have probably had more impressive stats than his Arsenal counterpart.

It's all speculation in the end, but to be honest, if Coutinho puts up the same numbers as Ozil in three years, I will be slightly disappointed.  He's nearly at that level now and he's potentially much better.  Rodgers wouldn't trade the Brazilian for the German and neither would I.

Memphis Depay: The Dutch Raheem Sterling

If you haven't been impressed with 20-year-old Dutch attacking midfielder, Memphis Depay, at the World Cup, than there's plenty more to drool over.  First off, one of my favorite sites, StatsBomb, wrote an excellent article about how he may be a great replacement for Suarez.  Here's his stats from last season at PSV compared to some of our players and one soon-to-be former player:

	Depay	Sterling	Coutinho	Lallana	Suarez
age	20	19	22	26	27
app (sub)	32	24(9)	28(5)	37(1)	33
mins	2694	2220	2323	3082	2962
goals	12	9	5	9	31
assists	8	5	7	6	12
chances	86	51	64	68	87
npg90	0.37	0.36	0.19	0.26	0.94
gcp90	0.67	0.57	0.47	0.44	1.3
ccp90	2.88	2.06	2.5	1.9	2.6
ap90	0.27	0.2	0.27	0.21	0.37
ccv	9.4	9.7	10.8	11.1	14.2
pass %	77.5	81.7	80.6	84.6	74.8
bp %	44.1	46.8	36.7	50.3	44.1
sacc %	48.4	48.9	28.7	41.4	44.8
shot %	9.1	20	7	18	17.1
TTI90	11.6	12.1	11	13.9	17

The thing that stands out most is his chances created per 90, he is the best of the bunch, even better than Suarez.  Speaking of 'El Conejo Loco', Depay comes second only to him in non-penalty goals per 90, goals created per 90, and assists per 90.  Only Coutinho keeps better care of the ball, but not by much.

For some reason he's only valued at £4.4m at http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk. I'm sure that was pre-World Cup, because it would be idiotic for PSV to let him go for less than £15m.  Though unlike Lallana, I wouldn't mind spending upwards of £27m for him.