Blame the FA, Hodgson, or the entire squad, not just Gerrard

It is sad and pathetic that the English press and the wind-up blogs are attempting, though ever so poorly, to blame Steven Gerrard for the early World Cup exit of the Three Lions. He did not pick the manager.  He did not pick the players.  He did not pick the formations, his own position, nor tactics.  All he did was go out and play to the best of his ability, trying to execute the plan of his manager.

Roy Hodgson is not truly to blame either, he is just doing what he has always done, but it is quite evident that his style of management doesn't work for the English side.  He is a blue collar manager if there ever was one.  He found most of his success at clubs in lesser leagues like the Allsvenskan or at smaller clubs like Fulham and West Brom which rely more on tactics than talent.  Let's face it, England is made up of big club players and it is hard for a big club player to revert to simple tactics, it is like asking a chef to wash dishes, he can do it, but he won't be happy nor necessarily do it well.

Capello utilized advanced tactics, but he also knew how to control the superstar egos of the English side.  You were either part of the team or watching from the outside, Hodgson is too much of a gentleman to command the Three Lions.  I'm not saying they lack discipline, because if anything they are seemingly one of England's more mature squads despite their age, I just think Hodgson's tactics and demeanor lack the authority to shape the squad to his liking.

Gerrard had a very poor performance against Uruguay and a medicore one, at least for him, versus Italy.  Neither losses can be fully pegged on him though.  In the Italy match, England's lack of a true defensive midfielder, which they don't even have in the squad, hurt them because no one could stifle the Italian attack.  Neither Gerrard nor Henderson are true DMs and it's idiotic to ask them to play such a role on the world's biggest stage.  Hodgson supposedly imploys zonal marking, so it was either executed quite poorly on both of Italy's goals or nobody listened.  The lack of coverage on the second goal and the careless positioning by Hart are clear signs of a insufficiently managed side.

The Uruguay match was just plain awful from everyone, even for Suarez.  He scored two goals, but was statistically one of, if not the, worst player on the pitch.  Uruguay overall had a passing rate of 64.7%, 53.9% in the England half, and did not connect on a single one of their 18 cross attempts.  Unfortunately the England defense went asleep for a total of about ten seconds and it cost them the match.  Hodgson's tactical approach is a support method of twos and the two centre backs, Jagielka and Cahill, failed to communicate on the first goal, allowing Suarez to sneak in and put away a brilliant header.

Everyone wants to blame Gerrard for the second goal since he miscalculated his header and passed it on to his Liverpool teammate, but it was the brilliance of Suarez to net at a tight angle with scorching pace.  Still it was Gerrard's error that gave him the ball and actually Cahill did a great job in cutting down Suarez' perspective, but Hart's indecisiveness to go for it or stay back was quite apparent and he ended up doing neither.  If he would have stayed back, he would at least had a chance of a save, but getting stuck in the middle left him little chance.

No one seems to be talking about Rooney missing three point blank chances, one in the Italy match and two versus Uruguay.  He connects on one of those, this post doesn't happen.  England still has hope against Costa Rica.  He better realize that if it weren't for Sterling, Sturridge, and Johnson, he would have had zero assists and zero goals, they better be on his Christmas card list.

Listen I can spew stats all day to disprove Gerrard's culpability and direct the blame on others, but it's just as stupid as being a sensationalist and blaming the captain for a total piss poor team effort.  The bottom line is, and it pains me to say this, they should have brought Michael Carrick and begged Gareth Barry to come, so they would have a true DM.  I don't want to get into why I would have picked a different squad, but I don't see the point in taking Lampard and an injured Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Also, if reports are true, and Hodgson still has a job after the World Cup, than the only people to truly blame are the donkey shepherds at the FA.  Hodgson is not the manager to take England anywhere, not even a watermelon festival.  They should go after a gaffer with balls, who that is, well I don't know, but I would even take André Villas-Boas at this point.

Sterling or Morata: Who would you take?

StatsBomb, one of my favorite blogs, recently wrote an article claiming that Alvaro Morata is the 'best young prospect in Europe.'  I have to respectfully disagree though, Raheem Sterling is much better and younger.  Here are stats from last season for Sterling and the last two combined for Morata:

	Morata	Sterling
age	21	19
app (sub)	8(27)	24(9)
mins	994	2220
goals	10	9
assists	1	5
chances	18	51
npg90	1	0.36
gcp90	1	0.57
ccp90	1.64	2.06
pass %	66.5	81.7
bp %	48.1	46.8
sacc %	58.8	48.9
shot %	15.7	20
take on %	42.5	64.3
TTI90	18.4	12.1

They play different positions, Morata up front and Sterling on the wing, so you would expect Morata to have a higher non-penalty goal and goal created per 90.  Other than goal scoring and shot accuracy, Sterling is better in every other category.  

He creates more chances per 90, has a significantly better passing rate with a lower back pass percentage, is much more efficient at taking on defenders, and turns over the ball considerably less.  Shot selection is a bit mixed though as Morata has more on target, but Sterling puts a higher percentage in the back of the net.

One stat that I didn't include was aerial duels, for a few reasons.  First, Alvaro Morata is 6'3" and Sterling 5'6".  Second, positioning, Morata plays up front in the middle and obviously gets more crosses fed to him.  Third, these numbers are reflected in shot and passing stats.  Also, it would be one thing if Morata had scored a ton of header goals, but he has one in the last two seasons, and no one I know keeps track of key headers, chances created via header, header pass percentage, nor header shot percentage.  I have a feeling if someone did track the latter, neither Morata nor Sterling would have an impressive rate.

The bottom line is Sterling is the better chance creator.  He can create his own shot for himself and others, where Morata seems to rely on players like Sterling for service.  Morata is a one-toucher, a good one, but still if he doesn't shoot or pass with his first touch, there's a high probability that he's going to lose possession. Of course, if you already have a Sterling, adding a Morata wouldn't be a bad idea.

How good is Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz?

Before the World Cup match between Uruguay and England, Roy Hodgson said that Luis Suarez is not yet 'world class'.  Well, he found out the hard way how wrong he was.  Suarez may not have had the greatest match, but his world class ability shone through.

Let's see how he sizes up against some other players considered 'world class'.  Charted below is their previous seasons in their respective leagues except for Falcao, his stats are from his previous and last season in La Liga with Atletico Madrid.

	Suarez	Messi	Ronaldo	Bale	Costa	Falcao
age	27	26	29	24	25	28
app (sub)	33	29(2)	30	24(3)	34(1)	34
mins	2962	2498	2537	2065	2952	2896
goals	31	28	31	15	27	28
assists	12	11	9	12	3	1
chances	87	75	47	40	45	32
npg90	0.94	0.79	0.89	0.66	0.67	0.62
gcp90	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.2	0.91	0.9
ccp90	2.6	2.8	1.6	1.8	1.4	1
pass %	74.8	85	80.3	76.3	75.5	79.9
bp %	44.1	44.6	56.4	52.2	61	59.4
sacc %	44.8	46.3	43.1	34.1	50	43.1
shot %	17.1	17.5	14.4	17.1	25	22.8
TTI90	17	13.1	12.9	11.5	15.5	12.8
	Sturridge	Y. Toure	Aguero	RVP	Rooney	Ribery
age	24	31	26	30	28	31
app (sub)	26(3)	35	20(3)	18(3)	27(2)	18(4)
mins	2267	2917	1526	1578	2446	1635
goals	21	20	17	12	17	10
assists	7	9	6	3	10	10
chances	29	40	34	16	56	56
npg90	0.83	0.43	1	0.57	0.51	0.55
gcp90	1.1	0.9	1.4	0.86	1	1.1
ccp90	1.2	1.2	2	0.9	2.1	2.8
pass %	79.3	90.1	84.9	76.7	80.1	83.9
bp %	53.4	35.1	56	50.9	48.4	50.8
sacc %	42.4	42.2	50	33.9	42.6	49.2
shot %	21.2	31.3	19.8	19.4	16.8	17
TTI90	11	10.2	11.8	10.5	15.4	17.8

Suarez comes in 2nd in non-penalty goals per 90, 3rd in goals created per 90, and 3rd in chances created per 90.  He also finished 4th in shot accuracy.  Unfortunately he had the worst pass rate, but he did have the second lowest back pass percentage, bettered only by Yaya Toure.  His TTI90 was second worst after Franck Ribery, mainly due to bad pass attempts.

Overall he is bested by Messi alone, but the Argentinian's stats are padded by 6 penalty goals where Suarez had none.  If you consider the six penalties that Ronaldo converted, Suarez is much better overall.  He already trumps the defending Ballon D'or winner in nearly every category, but take away spot kicks and CR7 is not even part of the conversation.

Speaking of the Ballon D'or, if Suarez can continue his scorching pace, Messi should be the only other player considered.  How they and their teams perform in the World Cup is probably on what the award will hinge.  Both are off to great starts, but Uruguay will have to beat Italy if they want to advance to the knock-out stages.  Suarez will probably once again have to prove his 'world class' if they are to do so.

Daley Blind is the epitome of World Cup sensationalism

There are reports that Daley Blind may be one of the left backs on Rodgers' transfer wish list, especially after his two solid World Cup performances for the Dutch, but is really that good?  Let's take a look at his output last season for Ajax and compare it to last season for Flanagan and the previous campaign of Jose Enrique.

	Blind	Flanagan	Enrique
age	24	21	28
app(subs)	29	23	25(4)
mins	2503	1890	2257
goals	1	1	2
assist	1	1	4
chances	37	13	26
gcp90	0.07	0.1	0.24
ccp90	1.33	0.62	1.04
pass%	88.1	83.7	80.4
bp%	38.7	42.6	37
sacc%	28.6	42.9	36.4
shot%	3.6	14.3	9.1
tack pm	2.7	3.4	2.5
tack %	50.4	45.7	75.3
int pm	2.6	1.7	1.2
clear pm	2	3.3	2.5
dribb past pm	1.3	1.7	0.3
bs pm	0.2	0.2	0.1
adwon pm	1.5	1.3	0.4
adwon%	65.7	46.8	38.2
own goals	0	0	0
TTI90	10.9	9.2	15.6

Overall, I would have to agree Blind is a slightly better player than Flanagan and Enrique.  He is clearly better at passing, chance creating, and aerial duels, but should work on his shot selection.  The problem I have with Blind is how much will he cost and is it worth bringing in a slightly better player, especially one who is currently riding the World Cup hype train though his club stats aren't anywhere near someone like Ricardo Rodriguez?

A couple of things that should be factored in is that he not only plays in the Eredivisie, but he plays for the best team in the league.  Ajax has won the league four straight years now, though only by an average of five points.  Ajax and PSV usually have the best talent in the league, so his stats, especially his passing are probably skewed by having the most talented teammates.

His age should be taken into account as well.  He is 24, three years Flanagan's senior.  Who is to say Flanagan won't be as good or better if he can get the playing time over the next few seasons?  Flanagan seems to improve slightly every match and his stats from the Prem last year are not too shabby considering his inexperience.

I'm not saying it would hurt to add another left back, we are gonna need at least three players at every position to get through next year's schedule congestiation if we want to be successful, but why bring in just another good player when there's a Rodriguez out there?  Blind is satisfactory, but Rodgers can't get caught up in all the World Cup ballyhoo.

Ricardo Rodriguez would be a brilliant addition

We are obviously shopping for a left back with reports that we have bid for Alberto Moreno and are also looking at Marcos Rojo & Daley Blind, but Ricardo Rodriguez of VfL Wolfsburg & Switzerland may be the best value.  I'm not big on adding World Cup phenoms, but Rodriguez has also shown his worth at the club level. Here are his stats from the Bundesliga last season:

app(subs)	34
mins	3060
goals	5
assist	9
chances	78
gcp90	0.41
ccp90	2.3
pass%	80.5
bp%	44.6
sacc%	55.3
shot%	13.2
tack pm	3.1
tack %	57.7
int pm	1.9
off won pm	0.4
clear pm	2.8
dribb past pm	0.8
bs pm	0.4
adwon pm	3.1
adwon%	56.2
own goals	0
TTI90	11.1

If we are going to splash major cash for a player, Rodriguez would be the one.  He is arguably the best left back in the world right now.  His chances created per match, pass %, shot selection, tackling success, and aerial duels won are phenomenal.  Paying £30m for him is very reasonable as he remarkably will turn just 22 this August.

His TTI90 does worry me, but he more than makes up for it with his ccp90.  Imagine him feeding Sturridge and Suarez.  We could even play him in front of Flanagan or Enrique on the wing and allow him to utilize his creative abilities and worry less about his defensive responsibilities.

Alberto Moreno isn't worth £16m

Sure, he's 21, but will he develop into the all-round left back we need? Let's compare him to Jon Flanagan and Jose Enrique over the last two seasons.

	Moreno		Flanagan		Enrique
20	12-13	13-14	10-12	13-14	12-13	13-14
app(subs)	12(3)	27(2)	12	23	25(4)	6(2)
mins	1083	2414	1004	1890	2257	604
goals	0	3	0	1	2	0
assist	1	0	0	1	4	2
chances	8	19	5	13	26	8
gcp90	0.8	0.11	0	0.1	0.24	0
ccp90	0.67	0.71	0.45	0.62	1.04	1.2
pass%	78.1	78.9	79.4	83.7	80.4	80.4
bp%	45	36.5	-	42.6	37	40.8
sacc%	20	17	0	42.9	36.4	33.3
shot%	0	13	0	14.3	9.1	0
tack pm	1.9	1.8	1.7	3.4	2.5	1.3
tack %	37.8	39.6	-	45.7	75.3	53.3
int pm	3.1	2.5	1.8	1.7	1.2	1.1
off won pm	0.3	0	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1
clear pm	2.8	1.5	1.5	3.3	2.5	2.5
dribb past pm	1.1	0.8	0.8	1.7	0.3	0.3
bs pm	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1
adwon pm	0.7	0.9	0.5	1.3	0.4	0.3
adwon%	47.8	50	52.6	46.8	38.2	22.2
own goals	0	0	0	0	0	0
TTI90	10.4	8.5	6	9.2	15.6	11.3

*Note: Jon Flanagan's '1st season' are his stats from league appearances from 2010-12.*

At a glance, Moreno is not much of an upgrade from Flanagan and no where near as good as a healthy Enrique.  All he really brings to the table is a better interception and blocked shot rate, which is admirable, but not worth £16m.

Enrique does turnover the ball significantly more than the other two, but his back pass rate tells me that it is probably primarily in the opposition third and his chances created per 90 somewhat makes up for his risk-taking.

We definitely need more coverage at left back, but I don't think Alberto Moreno is the answer.  He would probably be a solid addition to the squad, but if you are going to spend £16m, you should be buying a Sakho and not an Aspas.