Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Let Man United waste their dosh on Cavani

Is Edinson Cavani the most overrated player in the world? If not, he's up there.  He can't pass, he can't shoot, he can't dribble, and he does not create goals.  What is the big deal?

His stats from last season do nothing to justify his £50m+ estimation:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.550.710.90.088.7
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
85.562.336.516.79.5
gsp90gap90gop90tgopgopd90
2.120.631.491.61-0.12

His pass success rate of 85.5% is excellent, at being misleading.  I'm not sure If I have ever seen a back pass percentage above 60, even Iago Aspas had 58.1% last season.  He does have a low turnover rate, but he wasn't exactly the primary ball carrier for PSG, they do have a few other well-known footballers on their squad.  In fact, he only averaged 28 pass attempts and 3.8 shots per 90 minutes last season, for perspective, Ibrahimovic averaged 50 and 5.2 respectively.

Further proof that his passing rate from last season was an anomaly:
yearageclubcompapp(sub)pcompattpass%
2012-1326NapoliSerie A33(1)54459877.9
2011-1225NapoliSerie A32(3)55175872.7
2010-1124NapoliSerie A32(3)49567873
2009-1023PalermoSerie A31(3)52368276.7
totals2113271677.8

His previous four year average is nearly 8 points lower.  All those expensive teammates make him look like a Pirlo, when he's really just a Kevin Nolan.  Oddly enough, his 8.7 ccv is his lowest in five years, while his career high was 18.8, his first season in Napoli.  His five year average though is only 11.

Cavani is far from worth £50m, he's probably not even worth £15m. I hope Van Gaal buys him though, it will just add to the horrible deals they made this summer.

The best 'unknown' striker in the world and why Rodgers should sign him

Seydou Doumbia is not completely unknown, Arsenal and Newcastle have both been linked to him in recent years, yet he continues to terrorize defenses of the Russian Premier League.  Prior to that, he made minced meat of the Swiss Super League, winning player of the year honours in 2008-09 and 2009-10.

The 26-year-old Ivorian's scoring rate at CSKA Moscow is Suarez-esque, 54 goals in 82 matches, but that's not the only indication he is worthy of a £25m transfer fee.  Here are his stats for his club from last season:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.811.451.340.4130.4
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
77.345.251.73110.1
gap90gsp90gop90tgopgopd90
0.72.561.860.771.09

Those numbers in blue are outstanding and he's been posting such for six years now.  Sure, the RPL and the SSL are not the EPL, but even if his production drops by a third, he'll still produce a goal a match.

It's not just goals though, it's his efficiency. A 30.4% chance created value combined with a 31% goal for shot rate is ridiculous, Sturridge was the closest player for us last year with a 23.3% ccv and a 21.2% shot percentage.

His feet are quick, but not Suarez-level quick, few are.  His finishing is not clinical, it's extraordinary.  He also has the knack to be in the right place at the right time, which is something that can't be taught.  He's a unique talent who knows how to score no matter the given situation and that's why Rodgers should try and sign him.

Need more evidence? Start with this video. 

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Will Suarez succeed at Barca?

Will Suarez succeed at Barca?
  
pollcode.com free polls 

I don't know about 'succeed' in so much as he will progress as a footballer.  I think he'll do well, but I don't think he'll repeat last season, possibly ever again, unless he goes to MLS before he gets too old.  For Suarez to improve, I just think he needs to be the primary guy the ball goes through in the last third, unfortunately at Barca, that's not going to happen.  Buena Suerte to him otherwise, but I will never cheer for Barca unless they are playing United.

Monday, July 14, 2014

Would you take Fernando 'Judas' Torres back?

Would you take Torres back?
  
pollcode.com free polls 

I'm actually on the fence about this one.  On the one hand, if he could somehow magically recapture his form that he had with us, yes, I would take him back in a heartbeat, but he would have to do a lot, and I mean a lot of PR work.  I'm talking handing out free ice creams at Ladies' matches, visiting every kids room in every hospital on Merseyside, and possibly freeing all of Africa of malaria.  He would practically have to walk on water to repair that bridge.

I honestly think he failed at Chelsea because they had no Gerrard.  Torres can create on his own, but not often and he gets by better with a little help from his friends.  He still has two years left on his contract, so I'm not sure if Chelsea is even considering a transfer, but like I said, only on a free and he can forget about making the same wages.  That's probably why Judas wants to stay there anyhow.

Salomon Kalou? No, just no.

Salomon Kalou is a conundrum.  Is he any good? Was he ever good?  When he transferred from Feyenoord to Chelsea in 2006, he was coming off two productive years where he scored 42 goals in 80 matches in all competitions.  Interestingly enough, his strike mate at the Eredivisie club was Dirk Kuyt, who scored 61 goals in 82 matches over that same span.

The first season for the 21-year-old Ivorian at Stamford Bridge was mildly successful as he bagged seven goals and assisted on five more in 1931 minutes played.  Though seemingly a 'transition' year, Kalou would fail to improve much on those numbers for his remaining stay with the Blues.  He would only manage 36 goals and 25 assists in 156 league appearances and was let go on a free to Lille.

Unfortunately, Ligue 1 hasn't treated him much better:
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
2013-140.320.641.570.1711.1
2012-130.530.71.270.129.7
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
2013-1475.947.948.91715.8
2012-1375.645.746.519.717.9
gap90gsp90gop90tgopgopd90
2013-140.71.280.580.530.05
2012-130.91.760.860.50.36

He has scored 30 goals in 66 matches, 6 of those were penalties though.  His passing is painfully average, he turns over the ball too frequently, and his chance created values are nothing to get excited about.  At 29, Kalou is the poster boy for 'unreached potential'.

The Liverpool is somehow linked to Kalou, but I don't think he's even worth the pitch time on a free.  I'd rather see Ibe get more playing time than waste it on a 29-year-old forward who couldn't prove his worth in six seasons at Chelsea.

Jay Rodriguez for £19m?! I must be taking crazy pills.

Jay Rodriguez isn't worth £1.9m, yet alone 19! That is absurd.  There just can't be any truth to Rodgers being interested in him.  If so, somebody needs to set his head right, because that's certifiable. Are these stats worthy of a £19m attacking midfielder/winger/forward?

Southampton 2013-14
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.530.630.70.1114.3
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
76.64931.714.912.9
gap90gsp90gop90tgopgopd90
1.371.510.140.21-0.07

Southampton 2012-13
npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.250.450.740.2127.8
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
73.8-366.714.4
gap90gsp90gop90tgopgopd90
1.611.2-0.41-0.290.12

I'll save you the trouble and say 'Hell no!' Rodriguez is not good enough to wear the Liverpool shirt.  It's bad enough we grossly overpaid for his former teammate, but he shouldn't even be in the picture.  Whomever says we should buy him, should be committed, immediately.

Not a single stat above could be deemed 'outstanding'.  He does have great chances created value numbers, but that's mainly due to lack of created chances more than anything.  He had a total of 38 for the past two seasons combined.  For perspective, Glen Johnson had 74 over the same span.

Rodriguez is clearly poor on the ball.  His turnover rate and passing percentages are dismal.  He did see slight improvement from one season to the next, but he'll be 25 by the end of the month.  His performance curve can't go too much higher.

Seriously, Rodgers, Rodriguez? I'm hoping he was mis-heard and really said Ricardo Rodriguez.  If not, we need to find where the real Rodgers is being held and get rid of his reptilian humanoid doppelganger sent by Malcolm Glazer from his invisible spaceship.  This hyperreality is making me lose my mind.

There is only one reason Gerrard should ever play for England again

To knock Beckham off his perch and become the top capped outfield player in Three Lions history. That's it, two more matches and he should hang up those boots.  Gerrard is 34 and we need him to put his England days behind him and  focus on LFC.

After the World Cup embarassment, he should probably go ahead and retire, but with my disdain for 'pretty foot', I don't mind if he suits up a couple more matches.  I don't think it'll do England any good though, they've clearly got to give Barkley, Henderson, and Wilshere more playing time, if they want to improve.  They also need to get a better manager.

I've heard Gerrard called a failure on the International level and that's why he isn't 'world class'.  Rubbish, one man does not make a team, though there were times when Gerrard carried his country.  His statistical output for England has been impressive so far, especially when you consider he's played nearly every outfield position.

npgp90gcp90ccp90ap90ccv
0.220.461.970.2412.3
pass%bp%sacc%shot%TTI90
80.225.9*46.715.312.7
gap90gsp90gop90tgopgopd90
0.811.991.180.990.19
tp90tack%intp90clrp90bsp90
2.5271.81.921.30.45

Those are solid numbers all around save his turnover rate.  His goals on pitch difference per 90 of 0.19 means he has been worth nearly an extra goal every five matches, +21.66 for his career.  Which isn't surprising when he was actually played a part in a quarter of his side's goals when he plays.

I don't really care if others don't think he's world class, but saying it is because he doesn't perform on the international stage is not valid.  In reality, he's played quite well and if it's because he's never won a Euro or a World Cup, I guess Messi, Ronaldo, Bale, Rooney, Robben, Van Persie, and anybody else who hasn't played for Germany, Spain, Italy, or Brazil in the past 12 years isn't 'world class' either.

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