Good riddance Suarez, we'll be better without you

If Suarez leaves, and it's looking highly likely, we'll be fine.  We still have Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho, Gerrard, and Henderson, all but one are young and all will be improved.  We don't need to necessarily make up 31 goals, we could actually play better defense.  If we would have prevented just 5 more goals last year, we would have won the league.  Last season, we lead the league in defensive errors with 42, 13 which directly resulted in a goal, that obviously has to stop.

If there ever was an example to follow,  look no further than Ateltico Madrid from last season.  They only scored 77 goals, 27 less than Real, and 23 less than Barça.  They also only allowed 26 and committed just 17 defensive errors, which was not best in league, but only 5 off and light years better than 42.  They also lost Falcao and Martin Demichelis from the season before.

Falcao scored 28 goals for Atletico in the 2012-13 season, that was a ridiculous 43.1% of their total output of 65.  Suarez was 'only' responsible for 30.1% of our goals last season,  but his 13 assists means he took part in 42.6%.  Atletico rebounded with Diego Costa and added David Villa, we have Sturridge and added Rickie Lambert.

In fact, over the years, Atletico has lost a number of key players.  Since summer 2007, they've lost Falcao, Martin Demichelis, Eduardo Salvio, Serio Aguero, David De Gea, Diego Forlan, Jose Manuel Jurado, Simao Sabrosa, Maxi Rodriguez, Martin Petrov, and of course, Torres.  In that time they've won a Copa Del Rey, 2 Europa Cups, and 2 UEFA Super Cups.  Their progression in La Liga since 2009-10 has been consistent to say the least, they went from 9th to 7th to 5th to 3rd to winning it last season.  

They also reduced their goals allowed each season starting in 09-10 they conceded 61, then 53 in 10-11, 46 the next season, and 31 the year before last.  The thing is, their goal scoring showed no such progression save last season.  Over the same period from 2009-10 to 2012-13, they scored 57, 62, 53, and 65 in each successive season.

Brendan Rodgers appears to have solved our goal scoring issues, but now he needs to focus on defense.  I think we'll be better because our defenders, Sakho in particular, should be more familiar with on another.  Communication appeared to lack last season, I just hope that changes.  Also, the addition of Emre Can gives us another option at defensive midfielder, which is the most important defender on the pitch.

Suarez leaving is far from the end of the world.  Yes, he scored and created goals, but he also gave away the ball an awfully lot.  Counter attack goals killed us last year, particularly late in the season.  We can make up for Suarez by playing smarter defense and most of all, holding on to the ball longer and making smarter passes, though we will need to add at least one more attack-minded player.  Hopefully that's Shaqiri, Sanchez, or in the very least, Memphis Depay.

Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank

What a terrible bit of business.  Buying Lallana for a reported £27m may end up being worse than United buying Herrera for £32m.  He wasn't even the most efficient attacking midfielder at Southampton last season and furthermore he didn't separate himself enough from his teammates to justify his price tag.

	Lallana	Rodriguez	Davis	Ward-Prose	Ramirez
age	26	24	29	19	23
app (sub)	37(1)	30(3)	28(6)	16(18)	3(15)
mins	3082	2561	2492	1616	526
goals	9	15	2	0	1
assists	6	3	7	2	3
chances	68	20	57	39	14
npg90	0.26	0.53	0.07	0	0.17
gcp90	0.44	0.63	0.32	0.11	0.69
ccp90	1.9	0.7	2.1	2.2	2.4
ap90	0.21	0.11	0.25	0.11	0.52
ccv	11.1	14.3	11.9	5	21.7
pass %	84.6	76.6	84.3	87.2	80.9
bp %	50.3	49	42.4	43.6	38.9
sacc %	41.4	31.7	21.8	35	23.8
shot %	18	14.9	6	0	4.8
TTI90	13.9	12.9	13.2	9.2	19.5
avg rk	2.9	3	3.1	3.3	2.6

Gaston Ramirez who played sparsely due to falling out of favor with Pochettino and injuries comes out on top. Lallana comes second, but only barely ahead of Rodriguez & Steven Davis. If Lallana is worth £27m, Rodriguez is worth at least that much being he is 2 years younger and Steven Davis should not be sold for anything less than £20m. And what about 19-year-old James Ward-Prose? He is already a better passer and turns over the ball much less at 7 years Lallana's junior. He's got to be worth £50m to Man United and at least £30m to the rest of the Prem.

Those numbers above are not worth £27 and the argument that it is because 'he's English' just proves my point. He's a product of the English press hype machine. We paid £8.8m for Coutinho, less than one-third what we did for Lallana, the Brazilian is still only 22-years-old and already a better player.  Basically we just paid that much for someone to keep the seats warm for Gerrard, Hendo, Sterling, Can, and Coutinho.

We should have signed Dusan Tadic, not Lallana

With the announcement of our signing Adam Lallana forthcoming, I have not held back on my disappoint of his transfer.  He is just not good enough and brings nothing to our side that we don't already have a better version.  We need to bring players that offer a special dynamic, not one who actually created less chances and had less assists last season than his 29-year-old unheralded teammate, Steven Davis.  Here are last season stats for Dusan Tadic and Quincy Promes, who play for FC Twente in the Eredivisie, Lucas Piaźon, a Chelsea player who played for Vitesse, and Lallana, Sterling, and Coutinho:

	Tadic	Promes	Piaźon	Lallana	Sterling	Coutinho
age	25	22	20	26	19	22
app (sub)	33	31	24(5)	37(1)	24(9)	28(5)
mins	2970	2724	2106	3082	2220	2323
goals	16	11	11	9	9	5
assists	14	8	8	6	5	7
chances	133	84	78	68	51	64
npg90	0.27	0.36	0.34	0.26	0.36	0.19
gcp90	0.9	0.63	0.81	0.41	0.57	0.47
ccp90	4	2.8	3.3	1.9	2.1	2.5
pass %	79.3	82.3	81.7	84.6	81.7	80.6
bp %	45.4	52.2	52.3	50.3	46.8	36.7
sacc %	37.4	34	39.1	41.4	48.9	28.7
shot %	17.6	11	15.9	18	20	7
TTI90	16.1	12.7	14	13.9	12.1	11

Tadic's 133 chances created is beyond impressive, it is phenomenal.  He had 40 more than Antonio Cassano in Serie A, who finished second in all of Europe with 93, and 49 more than teammate Quincy Promes, who finished second in the Eredivisie with 84.

An interesting stat that I've been toying with is chance created efficiency, the percentage of chances created that actually results in goals.  A player can create chances all day, but if it doesn't result in goals, it usually produces a loss of possession.  Tadic has a 22.6% cce while Lallana has a 20.6%, which doesn't seem much of a difference, but when you consider the amount of key passes it's why Tadic has created twice as many goals while playing in a full less match.  Sterling, by the way, has the best of the above group at a very impressive 27.1% cce.

The bottom line is we could have bought a playmaker with Fabregas ability for £12-15m, but instead we paid £23-26m for a player with Kevin Mirallas skills.  Mirallas isn't bad, but he's far from great, and when his days at Anfield are over, I hope Lallana gets at least that much respect.

United buy Ander & Luke Shaw for £60m+, way to go NUMPTIES!

Wow, I haven't seen a bad bit of business like this in a long time.  Especially not in a single day. Ander Herrera will be 25-years-old by the time Premier League season starts and he's never been called up to play for his country.  Is this the kind of player Man U has stooped too?  Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, but he's no where near worth £30m. Let's see how he stacks up against our midfield:

	Herrera	Sterling	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Hendo
age	25*	19	34	20	22	24
app (sub)	31(2)	24(9)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	35
mins	2548	2220	2895	2190	2323	3129
goals	5	9	13	3	5	4
assists	5	5	13	3	7	7
chances	53	51	67	16	64	62
npg90	0.18	0.36	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.12
gcp90	0.35	0.57	0.81	0.25	0.47	0.32
ccp90	1.9	2.1	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.8
pass %	80.6	81.7	85.9	77.9	80.6	87.1
bp %	40.6	46.8	30.6	39.6	36.7	41.2
sacc %	27.9	48.9	51.7	31.4	28.7	32.7
shot %	7.4	20	27.1	12	7	8.2
TTI90	15.3	12.1	10.9	13.2	11	9.5

His numbers are most comparable to Coutinho and Henderson. Our Brazilian produces more chances and turns over the ball much less.  Need I remind anyone that we got him for £8.8m? Three times less, three years younger, and more productive.

Henderson is the far superior passer, turns over the ball much less, and is nearly a year younger.  Dalglish was ridiculed for paying around £16m for Henderson, but compared to what Man U gave Atletico Bilbao for Ander, he looks like a genius.

I've had my say about Luke Shaw. If he turns out to be as productive as Kolarov, his price is somewhat justfied, but he's got a lot of work to get there and he's got to stay healthy to do so.  Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank, £20m was probably too much.

The thing that pisses me off more than anything is that buys like these severrely skew the market value of players.  Brendan Rodgers has made some really bad buys (Borini & Aspas come to mind), but Coutinho and Sturridge help us forget.  I have a feeling Can, who we got for £10.5m, will end up being a great add as well. 

Man U seems to lack the ability to make deals via leverage and just splashes the cash to avoid negotiation.  If a player wants to leave a club and his valuation is surpassed, it's hard for the retaining club to deny such a transaction.  Luke Shaw is not worth £30m, but unfortunately Ricardo Rodriguez is now probably worth £50m because of deals like these.

How Liverpool & Suarez can benefit from his ban

Instead of looking on the punishment FIFA dished out Suarez as a huge dark cloud that will doom our season, let's look at some possible positives.  First and foremost, Suarez needs some time off.  Despite his two goals in the England match, he was dreadful, and he was even more useless against Italy.  In fact, since his hat-trick against Cardiff on March 22nd, he scored 3 goals and had 1 assist in our final 8 league matches.  In the previous 25 matches, he had 28 goals and 12 assists, he is clearly burnt out and an extended rest will do him wonders.

His absence allows others to get more playing time, specifically Emre Can, probably Rickie Lambert, and possibly Samed Yeşil & Jerome Sinclair.  Though I believe Rodgers brought Can in to eventually be our first choice DM, he can play box-to-box just as effectively.  I for one can't wait to see how he, Gerrard, Hendo, and Lucas are played and interact. I also think Yeşil and Sinclair deserve decent chances to show us what they can offer, probably just in cup ties though.  What I don't wish is for Borini to get more pitch time.

Everybody stay calm, we still have Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho, and hopefully, Suso.  The latter might now benefit the most from Suarez' absence and I hope this convinces Rodgers to let him stay and play.  What worries me about Sturridge is that he will get burnt out as well, but if BR knows what's best for him, he'll let our number 15 stay home from all the off-season promotional tours and rest up until the season starts.  If we truly added Sanchez then we'll have even less issue with player wear.  If we add Shaqiri, we won't miss a beat.

Finally, we are now no longer one of the favorites to win the league, which is not necessarily a bad thing.  Pressure's off, no one thinks we have a chance, much like last season.  If we can come out and be competitive until Suarez' return, we'll be in great position to win the league.  I have a feeling if Suarez is still around, he's gonna come out on fire and give everyone else a rest as he wins a few fixtures by himself.  He's done it before.

Rodgers should be sacked if we pay £26m for Lallana

This is getting ridiculous and though I don't want to believe the story out of the Mirror that we are preparing a £26m bid for Lallana, it would not surprise me if it was true.  I guess I'll have to break down Lallana's potential contribution to our squad with a statistical analyzation of last season and compare him to players on the squad and other potential targets.

	Lallana	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Allen	Shaqiri	Firmino
age	26	34	20	22	24	22	22
app (sub)	37(1)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	15(9)	10(7)	33
mins	3082	2895	2190	2323	1443	782	2912
goals	9	13	3	5	1	6	16
assists	6	13	3	7	0	2	11
chances	68	67	16	64	18	25	70
ccp90	1.9	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.1	2.9	2.2
pass %	84.6	85.9	77.9	80.6	86.7	84.1	74.7
bp %	50.3	30.6	39.6	36.7	38	57.4	42.1
npg90	0.26	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.06	0.69	0.44
sacc %	41.4	51.7	31.4	28.7	42.1	51.7	41.9
shot %	18	27.1	12	7	12.5	40	22.9
TTI90	13.9	10.9	13.2	11	10.4	14	21.6
tp90	1.7	3	3.1	2.9	4.2	0.8	2.5
tack%	42.3	52.2	44.8	40.9	56	28	39.2

Lallana did not come out on top of a single stat.  His back pass % is sub-par for an attacking midfielder, his TTI was second highest and unimpressive, and his tackling was average at best for his position.

If we are just looking for an attacking midfielder, Shaqiri is whom we should go after with Firmino being the alternative.  Shaqiri's 2.9 chances created per 90 minutes is outstanding, as is his non-penalty goals per 90 and shot accuracy.  Firmino really hurts himself with bad passing which ballons his TTI90, but his goals, assists, and ccp90 are all better than Lallana.  The thing is we can get either of these guys for around £15m at most.

If Lallana is worth £26m, Joe Allen at £15m was a steal and Coutinho at £8.6m was the best piece of business possibly ever.  The more I look at Allen's stats, the more impressed I am.  His passing, considering his success rate and low back pass percentage, is much better than Lallana, he holds onto the ball better, and his tackling is light years better than Lallana, but the latter is much more of an attacking midfielder than Allen.  Coutinho is a better overall playmaker and tackler than Lallana, though he could work on his shot selection.

There's just really no need to add Lallana to begin with.  I didn't even look at Sterling, Henderson, or Suso (who I hope gets to stick around).  If Rodgers really thinks we need another play-making midfielder, which with the fixture congestion of the upcoming season might not be a bad idea, why not go for more dynamic players like Shaqiri or Firmino?

Who turned over the ball most last season? UPDATED

One thing that drives all football fans crazy is when your team gives away the ball.  Peter Crouch, Luis Garcia, and Momo Sissoko used to bring out the worst in me when they constantly gifted the ball to the opposition.  So I got to wondering who has the worst TTI from last season?  Just for laughs, before I do the research, I'm going to guess either Glen Johnson or Luis Suarez, so let's find out.

	TTI Per 90
Suarez	15.7
Aspas	14.7
Toure	13.4
Sterling	12.1
Enrique	11.3
Coutinho	11
Sturridge	11
Johnson	10.9
Gerrard	10.9
Allen	10.4
Moses	9.9
Henderson	9.5
Flanagan	9.2
Cissokho	8.8
Kelly	8.5
Lucas	7.9
Agger	6.3
Mignolet	6.2
Sakho	6.1
Skrtel	5.3

I found a site that keeps track of minutes played by competition and have re-done the TTI chart accordingly.

Sterling jumped a bunch of spaces to basically second among regulars.  Suarez is still first, but he only went up a little since he plays so much.  Coutinho went from second to 6th, but still 3rd among regular starters.  And what can you say about Aspas? No wonder he rarely sees the pitch.  I think it would be interesting to see if he showed signs of this kind of performance at Celta.