Why Rodgers should buy Bertrand

To get sacked and go on holiday.  I have little doubt that buying the Chelsea left back for his estimated valuation of £7m would be on par with buying Aspas for £7.5m or Borini for £10.4m.  Here are last season's stats for Bertrand, who spent the majority on loan at Villa, our Jon Flanagan, and the guy we should sign on a free from Heracles of the Eredivisie, Australian Jason Davidson.

	Bertrand	Flanagan	Davidson
age	25*	21	22
app(subs)	17	23	30
mins	1449	1890	2669
goals	0	1	2
assist	0	1	3
chances	4	13	32
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06
gcp90	0	0.1	0.17
ccp90	0.25	0.62	1.08
pass%	76.4	83.7	76.5
bp%	38.4	42.6	31.4
sacc%	50	42.9	38.5
shot%	0	14.3	15.4
tp90	1.9	3.8	1.7
tack %	60.5	45.7	51.2
intp90	0.9	1.9	2.2
clrp90	2.1	3.6	5.2
dribpp90	0.4	1.9	0.9
bsp90	0.4	0.2	0.5
TTI90	10.2	9.2	7.6

Bertrand pales in comparison to Flanagan and Davidson, in fact, other than his tackle success percentage, he's quite unimpressive.  More damning is that before joining Villa they had 23 points from their first 20 matches, but in the 16 of the remaining 18 matches that Bertrand played, they garnered only 12 points and won the fixture against Chelsea which could not feature him. 

Just don't do it Rodgers.  I read somewhere that the argument was how Rodgers has 'righted' Sturridge and could do the same for Bertrand.  That's a bunch of crock, when Sturridge is allowed to play in his natural position up front, as he did on loan at Bolton, he's highly productive, it has little to do with Rodgers 'righting' anything.  BR should be getting Davidson's rep on the phone as soon as possible before he finalizes his deal with Fulham.  That Felix Magath, he's never won anything.

Forget Moreno & Blind, Jason Davidson is who we should sign

You're probably asking yourself, "Who the %&*$ is Jason Davidson?" Well, he's a left back who plays for Australia and Heracles Almelo in the Eredivisie, and he might be the wisest solution for our left back dillema. He just turned 22 and would provide great competition for Flanagan and Enrique.  Here is his output from last season along with Daley Blind, who plays in the same league, Flanagan, and Moreno.

	Davidson	Blind	Flanagan	Moreno
age	22	24	21	22*
app(subs)	30	29	23	27(2)
mins	2669	2503	1890	2414
goals	2	1	1	3
assist	3	1	1	0
chances	32	37	13	19
npgp90	0.06	0.04	0.05	0.11
gcp90	0.17	0.07	0.1	0.11
ccp90	1.08	1.33	0.62	0.71
pass%	76.5	88.1	83.7	78.9
bp%	31.4	38.7	42.6	36.5
sacc%	38.5	28.6	42.9	17
shot%	15.4	3.6	14.3	13
tp90	1.7	2.8	3.8	1.9
tack %	51.2	50.4	45.7	39.6
intp90	2.2	2.7	1.9	2.7
clrp90	5.2	2.1	3.6	1.6
dribpp90	0.9	1.4	1.9	0.8
bsp90	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.3
adwp90	1.7	1.6	1.4	1
adwon%	58.6	65.7	46.8	50
TTI90	7.6	10.9	9.2	8.5

(*Moreno turns 22 in 11 days.)

Davidson has the highest overall ranking among the four, topping 8 categories and coming in second in 5 more.  His only achilles heel is his lack of successful tackles, but he is still comparable to Moreno and does have the highest tackle success rate.  His passing rate is not impressive, which is odd considering his low TTI90, but his low back pass rate is phenomenal.

The biggest buying point is his cost.  He is only valued at £352,000 according to transfermarkt, but there's no way they'll let him go for that cheap.  If we could get him for £2.5-3m, it may still be a steal.  I'd much rather spend that much and have him not work out then spend a ridiculous amount on Moreno or Blind.  It's true Davidson is not a 'dynamic' nor 'sexy' player, but neither is his price tag.

Luke Shaw for £27m? No thanks, we got Flanagan

Rumor has it Luke Shaw is headed to Man U for £27m.  That's a preposterous amount for a player who will definitely not become the next Gareth Bale.  In fact, he'll be lucky if he can become the next Leighton Baines or Aleksandar Kolarov.  Here's a look at stats from last season for Shaw, Flanagan, and a few other top left backs:

	Shaw	Flanagan	Baines	Azpilicueta	Kolarov
age	19*	21	29	24	28
app(subs)	35	23	32	26(3)	21(9)
mins	2990	1890	2838	2325	1977
goals	0	1	5	0	1
assist	1	1	4	0	7
chances	33	13	48	12	34
npgp90	0	0.05	0.06	0	0.05
gcp90	0.03	0.1	0.29	0	0.36
ccp90	0.99	0.62	1.5	0.47	1.6
pass%	79	83.7	85.8	80.6	81.2
bp%	41.6	42.6	41.4	37.1	43.5
sacc%	41.7	42.9	23.8	40	24.5
shot%	0	14.3	23.8	0	1.9
tp90	2.2	3.8	3	3.8	2.3
tack %	58.7	45.7	60.3	52.9	56.2
intp90	1.1	1.9	1.1	1.9	1.4
clrp90	3.7	3.6	2.5	5.3	2.8
dribpp90	0.7	1.9	0.6	1.1	0.8
bsp90	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1
adwp90	1.8	1.4	0.4	1.3	1.7
adwon%	56.5	46.8	41.2	58.6	71.7
TTI90	11.6	9.2	9.1	10.1	10.9

* Shaw will turn 19 next month.

Compared to Flanagan, Shaw is the better chance creator, more efficient tackler, and significantly superior in the air, but our number 38 has a higher pass rate, nearly doubles his counterpart's tackles and clearances, and holds onto the ball better.  If Southampton were to offer Shaw for Flanagan, Rodgers would be an idiot not to take them up on it, but that would never happen.  It's not that Shaw is that much better than our 'Red Cafu' and the distance between their productivity may never be much, but Shaw has more potential.

Comparing Shaw to the others above, he is probably most similar to Kolarov.  The Serbian is a great attacking left back, but is not an exceptional defender like Azpilicueta.  Would I have paid £27m for Kolarov at (soon-to-be) 19, if I had known then what I do now? Probably, but with Shaw there's no such luxury.  It's still a crap shoot with all that can happen in his young career.

The one thing that will improve at a bigger club is the quality of his teammates.  No offense to Southampton, but Adam Lallana is no Steven Gerrard and Rickie Lambert is not even a poor man's Rooney.  Having players around him who are quicker and more talented overall should improve his numbers.  It certainly helps Kolarov.

If I've said it once, I've said 'til your eyes bleed, if we are going to splash that kind of cash for a left back or really any player, it should be Ricardo Rodriguez. He is the real deal and can provide coverage on the wing as well.  Shaw is just not worth the risk when we have fully capable coverage in Flanagan.

Daley Blind is the epitome of World Cup sensationalism

There are reports that Daley Blind may be one of the left backs on Rodgers' transfer wish list, especially after his two solid World Cup performances for the Dutch, but is really that good?  Let's take a look at his output last season for Ajax and compare it to last season for Flanagan and the previous campaign of Jose Enrique.

	Blind	Flanagan	Enrique
age	24	21	28
app(subs)	29	23	25(4)
mins	2503	1890	2257
goals	1	1	2
assist	1	1	4
chances	37	13	26
gcp90	0.07	0.1	0.24
ccp90	1.33	0.62	1.04
pass%	88.1	83.7	80.4
bp%	38.7	42.6	37
sacc%	28.6	42.9	36.4
shot%	3.6	14.3	9.1
tack pm	2.7	3.4	2.5
tack %	50.4	45.7	75.3
int pm	2.6	1.7	1.2
clear pm	2	3.3	2.5
dribb past pm	1.3	1.7	0.3
bs pm	0.2	0.2	0.1
adwon pm	1.5	1.3	0.4
adwon%	65.7	46.8	38.2
own goals	0	0	0
TTI90	10.9	9.2	15.6

Overall, I would have to agree Blind is a slightly better player than Flanagan and Enrique.  He is clearly better at passing, chance creating, and aerial duels, but should work on his shot selection.  The problem I have with Blind is how much will he cost and is it worth bringing in a slightly better player, especially one who is currently riding the World Cup hype train though his club stats aren't anywhere near someone like Ricardo Rodriguez?

A couple of things that should be factored in is that he not only plays in the Eredivisie, but he plays for the best team in the league.  Ajax has won the league four straight years now, though only by an average of five points.  Ajax and PSV usually have the best talent in the league, so his stats, especially his passing are probably skewed by having the most talented teammates.

His age should be taken into account as well.  He is 24, three years Flanagan's senior.  Who is to say Flanagan won't be as good or better if he can get the playing time over the next few seasons?  Flanagan seems to improve slightly every match and his stats from the Prem last year are not too shabby considering his inexperience.

I'm not saying it would hurt to add another left back, we are gonna need at least three players at every position to get through next year's schedule congestiation if we want to be successful, but why bring in just another good player when there's a Rodriguez out there?  Blind is satisfactory, but Rodgers can't get caught up in all the World Cup ballyhoo.

Ricardo Rodriguez would be a brilliant addition

We are obviously shopping for a left back with reports that we have bid for Alberto Moreno and are also looking at Marcos Rojo & Daley Blind, but Ricardo Rodriguez of VfL Wolfsburg & Switzerland may be the best value.  I'm not big on adding World Cup phenoms, but Rodriguez has also shown his worth at the club level. Here are his stats from the Bundesliga last season:

app(subs)	34
mins	3060
goals	5
assist	9
chances	78
gcp90	0.41
ccp90	2.3
pass%	80.5
bp%	44.6
sacc%	55.3
shot%	13.2
tack pm	3.1
tack %	57.7
int pm	1.9
off won pm	0.4
clear pm	2.8
dribb past pm	0.8
bs pm	0.4
adwon pm	3.1
adwon%	56.2
own goals	0
TTI90	11.1

If we are going to splash major cash for a player, Rodriguez would be the one.  He is arguably the best left back in the world right now.  His chances created per match, pass %, shot selection, tackling success, and aerial duels won are phenomenal.  Paying £30m for him is very reasonable as he remarkably will turn just 22 this August.

His TTI90 does worry me, but he more than makes up for it with his ccp90.  Imagine him feeding Sturridge and Suarez.  We could even play him in front of Flanagan or Enrique on the wing and allow him to utilize his creative abilities and worry less about his defensive responsibilities.

Alberto Moreno isn't worth £16m

Sure, he's 21, but will he develop into the all-round left back we need? Let's compare him to Jon Flanagan and Jose Enrique over the last two seasons.

	Moreno		Flanagan		Enrique
20	12-13	13-14	10-12	13-14	12-13	13-14
app(subs)	12(3)	27(2)	12	23	25(4)	6(2)
mins	1083	2414	1004	1890	2257	604
goals	0	3	0	1	2	0
assist	1	0	0	1	4	2
chances	8	19	5	13	26	8
gcp90	0.8	0.11	0	0.1	0.24	0
ccp90	0.67	0.71	0.45	0.62	1.04	1.2
pass%	78.1	78.9	79.4	83.7	80.4	80.4
bp%	45	36.5	-	42.6	37	40.8
sacc%	20	17	0	42.9	36.4	33.3
shot%	0	13	0	14.3	9.1	0
tack pm	1.9	1.8	1.7	3.4	2.5	1.3
tack %	37.8	39.6	-	45.7	75.3	53.3
int pm	3.1	2.5	1.8	1.7	1.2	1.1
off won pm	0.3	0	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1
clear pm	2.8	1.5	1.5	3.3	2.5	2.5
dribb past pm	1.1	0.8	0.8	1.7	0.3	0.3
bs pm	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1
adwon pm	0.7	0.9	0.5	1.3	0.4	0.3
adwon%	47.8	50	52.6	46.8	38.2	22.2
own goals	0	0	0	0	0	0
TTI90	10.4	8.5	6	9.2	15.6	11.3

*Note: Jon Flanagan's '1st season' are his stats from league appearances from 2010-12.*

At a glance, Moreno is not much of an upgrade from Flanagan and no where near as good as a healthy Enrique.  All he really brings to the table is a better interception and blocked shot rate, which is admirable, but not worth £16m.

Enrique does turnover the ball significantly more than the other two, but his back pass rate tells me that it is probably primarily in the opposition third and his chances created per 90 somewhat makes up for his risk-taking.

We definitely need more coverage at left back, but I don't think Alberto Moreno is the answer.  He would probably be a solid addition to the squad, but if you are going to spend £16m, you should be buying a Sakho and not an Aspas.