Gerrard & Sturridge are more important than Suarez

Again and again I'm trying to convince myself that the loss of Suarez won't be that great, well, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  I went through each match last year and broke down goal importance according to whether a point was salvaged or gained (crucial goal) or gave us an advantage (important goal).  I did the same for assists as well.  Then I applied a points system: 3 points for crucial goal or assist and 1 point for important goal or assist.  Here are the results:

	crucial goal	imp goal	crucial asst	imp assist	value
Gerrard	5	4	4	4	35
Sturridge	7	6	1	2	32
Suarez	0	11	1	4	18
Coutinho	2	1	0	2	9
Agger	1	1	1	1	8
Henderson	1	0	0	3	6
Enrique	0	0	1	1	4
Sterling	0	2	0	2	4
Aspas	0	0	1	0	3
Skrtel	0	3	0	0	3
Toure	0	0	0	1	1
Sakho	0	1	0	0	1
Johnson	0	0	0	1	1
Allen	0	1	0	0	1

Not a single goal and only one assist from Suarez was 'crucial' to our title chase last year.  He did score 11 'important' goals though, unfortunately that also means he essentially scored 20 'meaningless' goals or goals that wouldn't have mattered had he scored them or not.

We will be fine if Suarez leaves as long as we improve defensively.  Yes, he's fun to watch and I wish he would play the rest of his days in a Liverpool shirt, but in the end, we go on.

Good riddance Suarez, we'll be better without you

If Suarez leaves, and it's looking highly likely, we'll be fine.  We still have Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho, Gerrard, and Henderson, all but one are young and all will be improved.  We don't need to necessarily make up 31 goals, we could actually play better defense.  If we would have prevented just 5 more goals last year, we would have won the league.  Last season, we lead the league in defensive errors with 42, 13 which directly resulted in a goal, that obviously has to stop.

If there ever was an example to follow,  look no further than Ateltico Madrid from last season.  They only scored 77 goals, 27 less than Real, and 23 less than Barça.  They also only allowed 26 and committed just 17 defensive errors, which was not best in league, but only 5 off and light years better than 42.  They also lost Falcao and Martin Demichelis from the season before.

Falcao scored 28 goals for Atletico in the 2012-13 season, that was a ridiculous 43.1% of their total output of 65.  Suarez was 'only' responsible for 30.1% of our goals last season,  but his 13 assists means he took part in 42.6%.  Atletico rebounded with Diego Costa and added David Villa, we have Sturridge and added Rickie Lambert.

In fact, over the years, Atletico has lost a number of key players.  Since summer 2007, they've lost Falcao, Martin Demichelis, Eduardo Salvio, Serio Aguero, David De Gea, Diego Forlan, Jose Manuel Jurado, Simao Sabrosa, Maxi Rodriguez, Martin Petrov, and of course, Torres.  In that time they've won a Copa Del Rey, 2 Europa Cups, and 2 UEFA Super Cups.  Their progression in La Liga since 2009-10 has been consistent to say the least, they went from 9th to 7th to 5th to 3rd to winning it last season.  

They also reduced their goals allowed each season starting in 09-10 they conceded 61, then 53 in 10-11, 46 the next season, and 31 the year before last.  The thing is, their goal scoring showed no such progression save last season.  Over the same period from 2009-10 to 2012-13, they scored 57, 62, 53, and 65 in each successive season.

Brendan Rodgers appears to have solved our goal scoring issues, but now he needs to focus on defense.  I think we'll be better because our defenders, Sakho in particular, should be more familiar with on another.  Communication appeared to lack last season, I just hope that changes.  Also, the addition of Emre Can gives us another option at defensive midfielder, which is the most important defender on the pitch.

Suarez leaving is far from the end of the world.  Yes, he scored and created goals, but he also gave away the ball an awfully lot.  Counter attack goals killed us last year, particularly late in the season.  We can make up for Suarez by playing smarter defense and most of all, holding on to the ball longer and making smarter passes, though we will need to add at least one more attack-minded player.  Hopefully that's Shaqiri, Sanchez, or in the very least, Memphis Depay.

Emre Can will be boss

I remember back in the day when Momo Sissoko galloped across the pitch to and fro, wreaking havoc, it's just too bad he couldn't hold on to the ball.  Well Emre Can, our latest signee, can and does, he just needs to sharpen his passing skills and decision-making.  Here's how he matches up with his new teammates (stats from last season, Can played at Leverkusen in the Bundesliga):

	Can	Lucas	Allen	Gerrard	Henderson
age	20	27	25*	34	24
app (sub)	24(5)	20(7)	15(9)	33(1)	35
mins	2190	1896	1443	2895	3129
goals	3	0	1	13	4
assists	3	0	0	13	7
chances	16	13	18	67	62
npg90	0.12	0	0.06	0.09	0.11
gcp90	0.25	0	0.06	0.81	0.32
ccp90	0.7	0.62	1.13	2.1	1.78
ap90	0.12	0	0	0.4	0.2
ccv	0.17	0	0	0.19	0.11
pass %	77.9	90.8	86.7	85.9	87.1
bp %	39.6	30.3	38	30.6	41.2
sacc %	31.4	22	42.1	51.7	0.15
shot %	12	0	5.3	27.1	0.12
TTI90	13.2	7.9	9.8	10.9	9.7
tp90	3.1	4.2	4.2	3	2.4
t%	44.8	43	56	52.2	42.8

Can certainly holds his own with the exception of passing and turnovers, but he's only 20 and the guidance of Rodgers should help.  His versatility is what makes him exciting, he clearly is more of a box-to-box midfielder, but can play at the holding spot as well.  He sort of reminds me of a young Gerrard or Yaya Toure, when the latter was at Olympiacos & Monaco.

The thing Can will have to display most of all is discipline.  If he's playing defensive midfield, he must be cautious about going forward, but I'd rather see him be something of a factor on the attack unlike Lucas, who prefers not to get involved except via long balls.  Man City's DMs go forward all the time, but when you pair a Yaya Toure with either Fernandinho or Javi Garcia, you always have coverage.  So does that mean we should start Lucas and Can together? If it gets to that, it probably means Gerrard and Henderson are both out due to injury or discipline, which I don't think anyone wishes for.  It would be great to see it as an experiment in a cup tie though.

Another interesting aspect is that Can can play left back.  He did so for 10 matches last season at Leverkusen.  In fact he got some of his highest match ratings on whoscored playing that position:

His talent alone makes him a steal at £9.75m, but his versatility may make Rodgers look like a genius.

Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank

What a terrible bit of business.  Buying Lallana for a reported £27m may end up being worse than United buying Herrera for £32m.  He wasn't even the most efficient attacking midfielder at Southampton last season and furthermore he didn't separate himself enough from his teammates to justify his price tag.

	Lallana	Rodriguez	Davis	Ward-Prose	Ramirez
age	26	24	29	19	23
app (sub)	37(1)	30(3)	28(6)	16(18)	3(15)
mins	3082	2561	2492	1616	526
goals	9	15	2	0	1
assists	6	3	7	2	3
chances	68	20	57	39	14
npg90	0.26	0.53	0.07	0	0.17
gcp90	0.44	0.63	0.32	0.11	0.69
ccp90	1.9	0.7	2.1	2.2	2.4
ap90	0.21	0.11	0.25	0.11	0.52
ccv	11.1	14.3	11.9	5	21.7
pass %	84.6	76.6	84.3	87.2	80.9
bp %	50.3	49	42.4	43.6	38.9
sacc %	41.4	31.7	21.8	35	23.8
shot %	18	14.9	6	0	4.8
TTI90	13.9	12.9	13.2	9.2	19.5
avg rk	2.9	3	3.1	3.3	2.6

Gaston Ramirez who played sparsely due to falling out of favor with Pochettino and injuries comes out on top. Lallana comes second, but only barely ahead of Rodriguez & Steven Davis. If Lallana is worth £27m, Rodriguez is worth at least that much being he is 2 years younger and Steven Davis should not be sold for anything less than £20m. And what about 19-year-old James Ward-Prose? He is already a better passer and turns over the ball much less at 7 years Lallana's junior. He's got to be worth £50m to Man United and at least £30m to the rest of the Prem.

Those numbers above are not worth £27 and the argument that it is because 'he's English' just proves my point. He's a product of the English press hype machine. We paid £8.8m for Coutinho, less than one-third what we did for Lallana, the Brazilian is still only 22-years-old and already a better player.  Basically we just paid that much for someone to keep the seats warm for Gerrard, Hendo, Sterling, Can, and Coutinho.

United buy Ander & Luke Shaw for £60m+, way to go NUMPTIES!

Wow, I haven't seen a bad bit of business like this in a long time.  Especially not in a single day. Ander Herrera will be 25-years-old by the time Premier League season starts and he's never been called up to play for his country.  Is this the kind of player Man U has stooped too?  Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, but he's no where near worth £30m. Let's see how he stacks up against our midfield:

	Herrera	Sterling	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Hendo
age	25*	19	34	20	22	24
app (sub)	31(2)	24(9)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	35
mins	2548	2220	2895	2190	2323	3129
goals	5	9	13	3	5	4
assists	5	5	13	3	7	7
chances	53	51	67	16	64	62
npg90	0.18	0.36	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.12
gcp90	0.35	0.57	0.81	0.25	0.47	0.32
ccp90	1.9	2.1	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.8
pass %	80.6	81.7	85.9	77.9	80.6	87.1
bp %	40.6	46.8	30.6	39.6	36.7	41.2
sacc %	27.9	48.9	51.7	31.4	28.7	32.7
shot %	7.4	20	27.1	12	7	8.2
TTI90	15.3	12.1	10.9	13.2	11	9.5

His numbers are most comparable to Coutinho and Henderson. Our Brazilian produces more chances and turns over the ball much less.  Need I remind anyone that we got him for £8.8m? Three times less, three years younger, and more productive.

Henderson is the far superior passer, turns over the ball much less, and is nearly a year younger.  Dalglish was ridiculed for paying around £16m for Henderson, but compared to what Man U gave Atletico Bilbao for Ander, he looks like a genius.

I've had my say about Luke Shaw. If he turns out to be as productive as Kolarov, his price is somewhat justfied, but he's got a lot of work to get there and he's got to stay healthy to do so.  Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank, £20m was probably too much.

The thing that pisses me off more than anything is that buys like these severrely skew the market value of players.  Brendan Rodgers has made some really bad buys (Borini & Aspas come to mind), but Coutinho and Sturridge help us forget.  I have a feeling Can, who we got for £10.5m, will end up being a great add as well. 

Man U seems to lack the ability to make deals via leverage and just splashes the cash to avoid negotiation.  If a player wants to leave a club and his valuation is surpassed, it's hard for the retaining club to deny such a transaction.  Luke Shaw is not worth £30m, but unfortunately Ricardo Rodriguez is now probably worth £50m because of deals like these.

Suarez was not even the best LFC player on the pitch for England vs Uruguay

In fact, I would argue he was the worst.  It's amazing how a little luck and a lot of skill can cloak such a poor performance.  Not to take anything away from his brilliant finishing, but if it wasn't for a great pass from Cavani and an errant header from Gerrard, Suarez would probably be ridiculed for his erroneous-filled effort. A look at the stats is even more damning:

	Suarez	Johnson	Sturridge	Sterling	Gerrard	Henderson
mins	88	90	90	64	90	87
goals	2	0	0	0	0	0
assists	0	1	0	0	0	0
chances	1	3	0	0	1	1
gcp90	2.05	1	0	0	0	0
ccp90	1.02	3	0	0	1	1.03
pass%	67	83	73	86	74	89
bp%	65.2	32.2	34.6	50	29.3	21.7
cross att	11	3	1	1	7	1
succ cross	0	0	0	0	2	0
cross %	0	0	0	0	28.6	0
sacc%	50	0	60	0	0	100
shot%	50	0	0	0	0	0
take on	0/1	1/2	3/5	5/6	1/1	1/2
take %	0	50	60	83.3	100	50
dispo	3	2	1	5	0	1
offside	2	0	1	0	0	0
fouled	1	1	3	1	0	0
fouls	3	0	1	3	1	0
tack	1	2	0	0	3	1
tack %	50	67	0	0	60	50
int	0	0	0	0	1	1
off won	0	0	0	0	0	0
clear	2	3	0	0	4	3
clear %	100	100	0	0	100	100
shot blk	0	0	0	0	1	0
adwon	2	2	1	2	2	1
adwon%	50	40	50	66	100	100
TTI	17	13	16	10	12	8

Suarez was the inferior passer by a mile, completing only 67% of his passes despite 65.2% were towards his own goal.  He also attempted and failed 11 crosses, that's the same amount of all the other LFC players combined considering Gerrard had two successful.  He also had the highest TTI and that doesn't even account for crosses that changed possession.

If I had to pick the best player, statistically speaking, it would be Jordan Henderson.  His passing was outstanding, especially considering his incredibly low back pass rate and the fact that he lead all players with 60 attempts.  If he had only scored on his lone attempt, we would be talking about him today as the MotM instead of Suarez.

The only player who gave Suarez a run for his money was Sterling.  Had he not been subbed out in the 64th minute, he very well could have had a higher TTI, but his passing and take-on numbers were both superior.