Is Romelu Lukaku worth £26m?

Recent rumours have LFC linked to Chelsea striker, Romelu Lukaku.  The 21-year-old Belgian has spent the last two seasons out on loan, first at West Brom and last season at Everton. Let's look at his output from those campaigns:

Everton 2013-14

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.53	0.74	1.13	0.21	18.8
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
66.5	53.3	45.9	15.3	11.1
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.06	1.9	0.84	0.58	0.26

West Brom 2012-13

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.67	0.94	1.61	0.18	11.1
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
72.1	57.6	48.5	17.5	15
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.8	1.7	-0.1	-0.1	0

Everton finished 5th last season, while WBA ended up 8th in 2012-13, though the difference between 7th, where Liverpool placed that year, was 12 pts and a 32 goal difference, the second largest point gap next to 19th and 20th, and the largest goal difference by much distance.  Lukaku scored 32.1% of goals and was responsible for 39.6% of goals scored for West Brom, while he had part in 24.6% and 34.4% respectively for Everton last season.

The improvement in his chance created value and turnover rate are probably signs of both growth and being surrounded by more capable teammates, which, if he came to Liverpool, would be the case once again.  His passing rate is a bit worrisome though, but in the few matches he has played for Chelsea, his percentage was 81.2%, which is significantly better.  Why it decreased from WBA to Everton could also be due to the fact that he passed it backward less.

Is he worth £26m though? Well, given his age, physical capabilities, and skills, absolutely.  In fact, that could wind up being a bargain.  I don't think he'll ever be a world class talent, but I can see him scoring 20-25 goals for a lot of seasons to come.  If I were Mourinho, I'd send Torres packing and start playing Lukaku, but you never know with the 'Special One'.

Suso is admirable, but is he capable?

When Suso came into the first team in 2012, he impressed with his passing and his constant push to go forward with the ball.  He brought a sense of excitement and the feeling that something good was about to happen every time he touched the ball.  In reality though, very little of that 'vivacity' was productive.  In 14 appearances and 601 minutes, he failed to contribute either a goal or assist, and his minutes started to diminish.

Last summer he requested a loan, so he could garner more playing time and ended up at Almeria in La Liga. Here are his stats from that campaign:

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv	tccv
0.12	0.4	1.31	0.28	21.2	9.2
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	tTTI90
72.2	37.4	32.8	4.7	12.4	14.2
crp90	cr%	lbp90	lb%	tbp90	tb%
1.04	20.2	2.31	67.4	0.08	33.3
gap90	gsp90	gop90	tgop	gopd
1.83	1.2	-0.63	-0.74	0.09

His poor passing is very surprising and though he did play for a 17th place, near-relegated club, he was still below the team average of 73.6%.  In 2012-13, his passing success percentage for Liverpool in all campaigns was 84.9%, so I'm not sure what happened there.  Maybe his style of play just doesn't translate well in Spain or maybe he was trying to force play too much, his back pass percentage for LFC that season was 50.5%, significantly higher than his 37.4% in La Liga.  The other negative is his 12.4 TTI90, though it was better than his teammate average of 14.2.

There are positives though.  His chance created value of 21.2% is good in itself, but decidedly better than his club average of 9.2%.  The aforementioned back pass percentage, long balls per 90, long ball success percentage, and goals on pitch difference are all promising.  In fact, for such a poor side, it's good to see that he made some difference even if it's only +3.42 goals a season.

Suso is now back and wants to fight for a spot.  I'm all for it as long as he captures his passing form from the season before.  It would be great to have another option at attacking midfielder without having to spend any of that Suarez war chest. 

Not Bob Loblaw's Transfers Log Blog

Here are links to posts from the last month or so on various potential transfer targets and players we have already signed:

Wilfred Bony
Marco Reus
Ben Davies
Antoine Griezmann & Carlos Vela
DeAndre Yedlin
Memphis Depay
Dejan Lovren
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Ryan Bertrand
Toby Anderweireld
Lazar Markovic
Divock Origi
Marcelo
Jason Davidson
Daley Blind
Ricardo Rodriguez
Luke Shaw
Alexis Sanchez
Emre Can
Adam Lallana

Anyone else I should do a stat check & comparison on? Let me know in the comments or email me (go to contact page). Cheers.

Rodgers should be sacked if we pay £26m for Lallana

This is getting ridiculous and though I don't want to believe the story out of the Mirror that we are preparing a £26m bid for Lallana, it would not surprise me if it was true.  I guess I'll have to break down Lallana's potential contribution to our squad with a statistical analyzation of last season and compare him to players on the squad and other potential targets.

	Lallana	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Allen	Shaqiri	Firmino
age	26	34	20	22	24	22	22
app (sub)	37(1)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	15(9)	10(7)	33
mins	3082	2895	2190	2323	1443	782	2912
goals	9	13	3	5	1	6	16
assists	6	13	3	7	0	2	11
chances	68	67	16	64	18	25	70
ccp90	1.9	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.1	2.9	2.2
pass %	84.6	85.9	77.9	80.6	86.7	84.1	74.7
bp %	50.3	30.6	39.6	36.7	38	57.4	42.1
npg90	0.26	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.06	0.69	0.44
sacc %	41.4	51.7	31.4	28.7	42.1	51.7	41.9
shot %	18	27.1	12	7	12.5	40	22.9
TTI90	13.9	10.9	13.2	11	10.4	14	21.6
tp90	1.7	3	3.1	2.9	4.2	0.8	2.5
tack%	42.3	52.2	44.8	40.9	56	28	39.2

Lallana did not come out on top of a single stat.  His back pass % is sub-par for an attacking midfielder, his TTI was second highest and unimpressive, and his tackling was average at best for his position.

If we are just looking for an attacking midfielder, Shaqiri is whom we should go after with Firmino being the alternative.  Shaqiri's 2.9 chances created per 90 minutes is outstanding, as is his non-penalty goals per 90 and shot accuracy.  Firmino really hurts himself with bad passing which ballons his TTI90, but his goals, assists, and ccp90 are all better than Lallana.  The thing is we can get either of these guys for around £15m at most.

If Lallana is worth £26m, Joe Allen at £15m was a steal and Coutinho at £8.6m was the best piece of business possibly ever.  The more I look at Allen's stats, the more impressed I am.  His passing, considering his success rate and low back pass percentage, is much better than Lallana, he holds onto the ball better, and his tackling is light years better than Lallana, but the latter is much more of an attacking midfielder than Allen.  Coutinho is a better overall playmaker and tackler than Lallana, though he could work on his shot selection.

There's just really no need to add Lallana to begin with.  I didn't even look at Sterling, Henderson, or Suso (who I hope gets to stick around).  If Rodgers really thinks we need another play-making midfielder, which with the fixture congestion of the upcoming season might not be a bad idea, why not go for more dynamic players like Shaqiri or Firmino?

Iago Aspas was bad business

In my post about TTI per 90, Iago Aspas came in 2nd at 14.7 last season.  Considering his diminishing minutes as the season progressed, I decided to take a look at the stats from his last campaign at Celta Vigo to see if maybe there was an indication this would happen.

apps (sub)	34
goals	12
assists	7
chances	69
shot acc %	57
shot %	11.8
pass %	77.3
back pass %	61.5
take on %	33.3
TTI per 90	15

Wow, we paid £7.7m for a guy who needed 9 shots per match to score, who passes the ball towards his own goal two-thirds of the time, gives the ball away frequently, and can't dribble passed anyone.

Brendan Rodgers clearly didn't do his homework.  Aspas will turn 27 in August, if he was in his early 20s, I'd say send him out on loan and see if he can improve, but I don't think that's an option anymore.  Celta Vigo must have laughed all the way to the bank.  Rodgers clearly can't continue to spend that kind of money on fringe players without analyzing their game thoroughly.