Forget Lovren, we've got Kevin Stewart now

It is baffling that the signing of Kevin Stewart is deemed 'news'.  What is more pathetic though is when a blog sensationalizes and exaggerates to trick people into visiting their site by calling Stewart a 'Prem' defender.  He is 20-years-old and has played a grand total of zero Prem minutes.  Unless Rodgers thinks he'll be some sort of late bloomer, what's the point?  Is Ilori and/or Coates, as long as the latter is here, going to get a chance?  We need a player who is going to challenge for a starting spot and Stewart isn't that.

Dejan Lovren, on the other hand, could. The 25-year-old Southampton and Serbian international anchored a very solid Saints defense last season.  In fact, in my overall defense ranking table, the South Coast side finished third, only a point from being tied top with Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  As I have said, I don't think individual defensive stats hold much water, but I do think in the very least, you can find fault and strength. Here are Lovren's stats from last season along with those of Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure.

	Lovren	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	34
app(subs)	31	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	2787	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	2	1	7	2	0
assist	1	0	1	1	2
chances	4	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.07	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.1	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0.13	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
ap90	0.03	0	0.03	0.06	0.13
ccv	0.23	0	0.15	0.46	0.3
pass%	82	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	21.5	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	15.2	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	9	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	57.8	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	2.7	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	7.7	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.3	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	3.3	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	61.2	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	10.4	5.6	5.2	5	5.8

So what does Lovren do well? Interceptions and aerial duels certainly stand out.  Though it's kind of disconcerting that he's easily taken off the dribble more than the other four, especially Toure.  It questions his pace and quickness.  He also turns over the ball significantly more and he had less touches than Skrtel, so the 'Suarez' factor does not come into play.

Is he worth the reported £20m that it may cost to bring him in? Absolutely not.  If he alone was the reason the Saints defense was so good, yes, but they have/had Schneiderlin, Wanyama, Fonte, Clyne, and Shaw.  None of those five, save Shaw, is worth that much, and that's only because Shaw is 19.  I'd rather us just try and sigh Steven Caulker. 

Toby Alderweireld: A good signing but only at the right price

According to reports, the player in which we are latest linked is Atletico Madrid and Belgium defender, Toby Alderweireld.  The 25-year-old former Ajax player has become frustrated with his lack of playing time at Atletico and is looking to go elsewhere, despite only joining the La Liga champions last summer.  His preferred position is centre back, but has also provided cover at right back for club and country.  Here's how he sizes up statistically against Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure:

	Alderweireld	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	old
app(subs)	17(3)	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	1576	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	1	1	7	2	0
assist	0	0	1	1	2
chances	0	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.06	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.06	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
pass%	81.6	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	24.9	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	50	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	12.5	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2.5	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	58.5	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	6.1	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	1.7	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	75	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	8.5	5.6	5.2	5	5.8
avg rank	3.44	3.06	2	2.69	3.25

His overall ranking of 3.44 is last among the group, in fact, statistically the only thing that could even be deemed 'impressive' is his aerial duels won percentage. He is comparable in many fields, but do we really want to waste our time with a seemingly average player?  It's hard to use the 'potential argument' for a 25-year-old, that's the United way, but he does impress in this video, especially with his passing:

Alderweireld is valued at around £9m, but that's just too high.  Atletico bought him for £6.16m and being that they appear not to care whether he stays or not, maybe they'll take £7m or £7.5m.  We can throw in Aspas to carry the ball bags as well.  If we can get him for that, I'd say go for it, then at the very least  we'll have coverage at right back.

Pepe Reina or Simon Mignolet?

Since Napoli have admitted they won't be able to pay Pepe Reina to stay, he may be sold to Arsenal at a discount of £5m.  I think most would agree it would be bad business to sell Reina to a competing club like Arsenal, but what if a lesser club like West Brom or even Villa come knocking?  Should Reina be given the chance to be our number 1 again?  Should we try to keep him as a back-up? I don't know about anyone else, but I wasn't exactly blown away by Mignolet last season.  Let's look at the stats, two seasons ago for Reina and last season for Mignolet, league matches only.

	Reina	Mignolet
matches (sub)	31	38
clean sheets	14	10
goals allowed per	1.1	1.32
saves per match	1.35	1.97
saves per goal	1.27	1.7
avg claim success %	89	96
dist. success %	75	69
pass success %	70.8	67.3
aerial duel win %	85.7	83.3
long ball success %	45.8	39

The most important stats here are saves per goal and average claim success percentage, both of which go to Mignolet.  The 7% difference between the two keepers in ACSP is crippling to Reina if he has any aspirations to win his old job back.  It is an indication of what many think of the 31-year-old Spaniard: he takes unnecessary risks and has frequent momentary lapses of reason and concentration.

In his last couple of seasons, Reina appeared to be more interested in trying to create goal scoring opportunities instead of trying to prevent them.  The thing is, he's quite good at contributing to the attack, much more so than Mignolet, but what's the point if you can't do your primary job as a keeper?  I would even argue that Reina had a better defense in front of him than Mignolet does now.

Reina had Jamie Carragher and a healthy Jose Enrique for most of the season.  Though Carra was in his twilight year, he knew his limitations, made few mistakes, and was in command of Liverpool's defense, even when he wasn't on the pitch.  When he was, Carragher rarely went forward as much as Agger, Skrtel, and Sakho tend to.  The thing about Mignolet is that he doesn't take command like a keeper should and if that doesn't change, he should find his way somewhere else soon.

Liverpool vs Man City: A look at the stats

Let's take a look at some key statistics from last season:

(league rank in parenthesis)             LFC                       MCFC
overall possession %                     55.8 (5)                   57.6 (2)
pass success %                             84.5 (4)                   86.1 (1)
chances created                             488 (3)                    533 (1)
shots conceded pg                        12.8 (8)                     9.5 (1)
shots OT pg                                   6.8 (1)                     6.3 (2)
fouled pg                                      10.8 (6)                     8.9 (20)
offsides pg                                     2.1 (9)                     1.6 (19)
open play goals                              55 (3)                       66 (1)
counter attack goals                         9 (1)                        5 (2)
set piece goals                                26 (1)                      20 (2)
crosses pg                                      17 (20)                    23 (6)
through ball pg                                5 (1)                         3 (4)
long balls pg                                   56 (18)                    55 (20)
short passes pg                              469 (4)                    502 (3)
possession in own half %                 29 (13)                    23 (1)
possession in opp half %                 28 (11)                    31 (1)

Clearly some of these are obvious: you keep the ball more (possession %), you make better decisions on the ball (pass success %), you create more chances, you don't allow your opponent many chances, and you keep the ball out of your own half, you've got a better chance to win more games.

What surprised me the most was LFC's attack efficiency, they scored more with less opportunity.  They had a goal per chance opportunity of 4.83 compared to Man City at 5.22.  Against the run of play which factors in possession pct per match, Liverpool is even more impressive since their possession pct was not as high (8.66 compared to 9.06).

Which leaves the white elephant in the room, defense.  Liverpool was not bad defensively, they were just merely average while Man City was very good (though not excellent).  The problem in statistically analyzing defensive performance is that it is nearly impossible to quantify things such as 'forced back pass' or 'passing lane reduction'.  These things limit opportunities of an opponent to score, but unless you watch every match and keep statistics yourself, which neither I nor no one I know has the time to do so, it's just not going to happen.  Plus there are judgement calls.

One thing I find interesting is how little opponent passing pct really matters, even in the attacking third.  According to StatsBomb, through April 21st, Man City was allowing a pass success rate of 81.5% overall and 68.2% in the final third, while LFC were superior in both at 79.2% and 66.7%.  The problem being that direction of pass is not being considered, Man City may be forcing their opponents to make back and horizontal passes by cutting off passing lanes/opportunities.

The bottom line is Man City were the best at preventing opponents from scoring chances, which unfortunately we can only validate by shots conceded per match, and though Liverpool were more efficient offensively, they created less chances for themselves overall (even though it lead to just one more goal overall).

Some observations that I think separated the two sides are lack of discipline by Liverpool defenders, especially Skrtel and Sakho, and not having a true defensive midfielder on the pitch a lot of the time. It also doesn't help that MCFC just has better defensive midfielders in Fernandinho and Javi Garcia with Yaya Toure occasionally deputized.  One of these problems may have been resolved with the addition of Emre Can, but he is closer to a box-to-box than a defensive midfielder and the lack of discipline has to be addressed by the coaching staff or else look for those who will listen.
                  

Nemanja Vidić vs. Martin Škrteľ

Apparently Nemanja Vidić is the current odds on favorite to win PFA Player of the Year this season, and well, that sort of baffles me. I'm not saying Vidić is undeserving of recognition as one of the best center backs in the world, but our very own Martin Škrteľ has been just as, if not more impressive this season. The only thing going against the Slovakian back is that he's played in less matches, but the statistical comparison is, well, not much of one.

First we have what center backs are supposed to do best, stop the opposition. This is best represented by tackle success rate, tackles per match, and interceptions per contest. Škrteľ surprisingly takes all three of these categories. He easily beats his Man U counterpart in tackles per match with 1.82 tpm compared to 1.19, he dominates on tackle success rate with a resounding 88.2% to Vidić's 74.4%, and finally, he edges out the Serb, 2.18 to 1.96 in interceptions per. Pretty impressive if you ask me.

Another important trait is the ability to not only pass the ball effectively, but also to get to where you want it to go, in other words, pass success percentage. Once again, Škrteľ is superior, though only by a hair, 87.5% to 86.6%. Our boy also leads on assists with one to none and has created more goal attempts, 4 to 3, in 10 less matches played might I add.

The only category where Vidić dominates is goals scored and if we were talking about strikers that might make a huge difference, but we're not, and in almost every other single category, Škrteľ reigns supreme. Not to mention Liverpool's sweep of Man U exposed the weaknesses of Nemanja.

Kewell and Pennant should be starting

I love Babel and Lucas, but I would have gone with King Harry and JP on the wings. Pennant scored against the Bluesers last year.

Of course the outcome will justify Rafa's decision either way.

Skrtel, Skrtel, Sktrel, he's not made of clay...