Striker solution? This 'once-linked', former Barça prospect, could be a quality buy

Despite being 'pre-season' and meaningless, last night's match exposed our need for another striker.  Waiting for the magical boots to turn on and make Lambert the answer just won't hack it.  The problem is there isn't much else out there, certainly nothing of Suarez' class.  We may have to 'settle' for a forward with 'potential' and most likely risk funds to do so.  One of these players is Celta Vigo's Nolito, who we've been linked to in years past.

The 27-year-old forward/winger first came to prominence playing for Segunda División B side, Écija Balompié.  His performances helped lead Écija to the league title, catching the eye of Barcelona B scouts, where he would transfer to in July 2008.  There he scored 29 goals in 108 appearances, helping them get promoted to the Segundo División for the first time this century.

Seeing the pitch just three times for the senior side, he turned down a contract offer in summer 2011 and was transferred to Benfica for £2.2m.  His first year with the Portuguese club was somewhat successful, scoring 15 goals in all competitions and helping the club win the Taça de Liga.  He also scored in his first five consecutive league matches, tying Eusébio's record for goals by a debut player in Primeira Liga.

Unfortunately the honeymoon ended and Nolito found himself as fourth choice forward at the start of 2012-13 season.  After only 6 appearances and 188 minutes the first half of the year, he was loaned to Granada CF in the January transfer window.  At the Andalusian club, he created lots of chances, but only managed one assist to go with his 3 goals, but garnered enough interest to earn a transfer to Celta Vigo for £2.2m.

His stats for the La Liga club last season are not mind-blowing, but somewhat impressive considering it was his first season there and he wasn't exactly surrounded by world class talent:

npg90	gc90	cc90	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
0.48	0.63	1.94	41.18%	14.12%	11.5	0.29

Nolito seems to set up lots of chances for his teammates no matter where he plays, just imagine what he could do with the likes of Sturridge, Sterling, and Coutinho around him.  He also doesn't waste shot opportunities nor turnover the ball at a ridiculous rate, hence his 11.5 TTI90.  The most impressive stat though is his goals on pitch difference 90 of 0.29, when he wasn't on the pitch, Celta Vigo was destined to lose with a team gopd of -0.13.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old Spaniard is not just a poacher, but can contribute in many ways.  Other than setting others up, he is also a decent tackler, averaging 2.34 successful tackles per 90 minutes at a 48.4% rate.  He's valued at around £5m, which if we could get him for anything close, would be steal.  Recently, he said if Barcelona came calling, he would leave, I wonder if that applies to other 'big' clubs. 

Liverpool 2, Man City 2: A 'Sterling' performance

It is only the preseason, but that second half was some entertaining football.  I had to go and praise Coates in the first half, only to have him let me down in the second.  The Uruguayan defender couldn't really do much more save 'take out' Jovetic on the first goal and risk penalty.  Had Gerrard not deflected the ball into the Montenegrin's grasp, Mignolet would have probably scooped up the attempt.  It did slightly expose what became very apparent on the second goal, Coates needs to get stronger.  If he allows forwards to out-muscle him like the Man City forward did on his second score, he'll never make it in the Premiership.

As for the rest of the side, Sterling was the absolute game-changer.  If there ever was a sign of his world class potential, it was his very apparent ability to make his teammates look so much better, especially Henderson, who was having a rubbish bin match before our Raheem came on.  Not to take anything away from Henderson's brilliant finish, but it was Sterling's pass to Sturridge that set up the goal.  Beginning with an excellent set-up for Jack Robinson, which should have produced a better attempt on goal, Sterling provided chance after chance, terrorizing Man City down the left side of the pitch.

Sterling allowed a change in style of play, from a long-ball, centralized approach in the first half, to a possession-based, bring the ball up the flanks in the second.  Well, I should say bring it up the left flank that is, hardly anybody was on the right save Glen Johnson, who did himself no favors when it comes to his critics.  Even when he made a positive contribution, which was rare in itself, he would sure enough mangle it.

Lucas and Can were bright spots as well.  Lucas, in his cameo appearance, neutralized Touré,  provided the brilliant assist to Sterling on the equalizer, and scored the winning penalty.  He provided a sense of 'calm' the team needed to get back into the match.  Can was simply a beast, roaming around central midfield causing havoc for City and making smart possession-based passes.  His style of play is very similar to the box-to-box midfielder prototype that is Yaya Touré, if he can reach those heights, we'll have many years of success to come.

By the way, when did Micah Richards become such a school girl princess?  Before the match, I would have gladly had him come to Liverpool, but his wincing and whining, particularly after being man-handled by Can, has provided second thoughts.  He did more complaining than positive contributing, which is something we don't need.

Also what was going on with the pitch?  I realize it was played on a baseball field, but had this match been scheduled for the Prem or European football, it would have probably been abandoned due to horrendous conditions.  I don't know if the grass was too long or just the wrong kind, but especially in the first half, proper ball movement took an extra effort, which could have lead to a muscle strain or hamstring pull.  The stability in the 'infield' area was also questionable with a few players slipping, maybe that's why Liverpool avoided that side of the pitch in the second half.

Ultimately, this was a meaningless preseason match, despite what Guinness and Fox wants us to believe.  If Sterling can perform this well through-out the season, we'll be contenders until the end.  If Coates can play like he did in the first half, we have another option at centre back.  One thing I'm certain of, as they have both shown it the last two seasons, Henderson and Allen can play much better than they did, but Lambert and Sturridge will have to produce goals for us to have a chance at the title.

Coates, Coates, the killer... Liverpool vs Man City: First half thoughts

First and foremost, the pitch is a joke.  It looks dodgy and the way the ball is moving and players are sliding, especially in the baseball 'infield area', it doesn't look very fun to play on.  Also, is it just me or does the pitch seem small, which is why seemingly 'normal' cross field passes are going out of bounds with frequency.  Now on to our players' performances.

Sebastián Coates is putting on a pre-season tour that may just make it all right to sell Agger to Barcelona, and he's appeared to save his best for this match so far.  He's dispossessed Dzeko and Jovetic with embarrassing ease and his shut-down coverage in the box along with some tricky clearances have all but neutralized any real City chances.  For the first time, at least in a long time, he's shown the competency and ability to wear the Liverpool shirt.

No one else has been that outstanding, but Coutinho has made some brilliant runs.  Had he found Sturridge on that run where he took on three City players with his brilliant Brazilian wizardry, world class sweat would have been oozing from his veins.  A far reached foot by a City defender saved that from possibly being the match highlight.

Toure and Kelly have played well also, though they have had their 'frantic' moments.  Every time Kolo clears the ball, I cringe a little, he just seems so unsure of what he's doing out there.  Kelly has had his hands full with Kolarev and though I wouldn't say he's winning the battle, he's certainly holding his own.

Gerrard has been solid, two plays come to mind.  First, we he did that immediate through-ball on a rebound supposedly to Sturridge, he had that look on his face as if he thought, 'Man, Torres or Suarez would have saw that coming.' Work with him, Stevie, he's all we got right now.  Also that ankle-breaking direction-changing dribble in the middle of his own third on Kolarev was simply brilliant, Allen Iverson would be proud.

As for the poor performances, Allen has been bottom, he seems so out-of-place and may be having his worst passing match ever, Hendo hasn't been much better.  Every time either of them try to .make something happen' they create a turnover.  Lambert has been okay, at best, but he needs to be better at creating chances for others and exert less energy doing so.  Would not be surprise to see him on the bench in the second half.  Speaking of which...

Steven Gerrard, King of the APEs

Attacking Possession Efficiency that is.  I haven't been posting much lately because I've been working on a lot of stats projects.  One of these is APE.  APE measures how efficient a player is in possession.  It takes in account all positive results from possession and gives relative value to these results and then divides this number by total individual possessions.  A goal is given four times the value of a completed pass and shot on goal, while an assist is given double value to a chance created.  Here is Liverpool's top ten APE from last season (the team APE was 0.43563):

Gerrard	0.46478
Henderson	0.46115
Skrtel	0.45314
Coutinho	0.45302
Suarez	0.45268
Johnson	0.44870
Lucas	0.44444
Sterling	0.43388
Sakho	0.42635
Sturridge	0.42570

Skrtel was more efficient than Suarez? Yes, because he did more with less possession and turned over the ball much less, which is essentially what this stat measures.

I also created a Positive Possession Result Quality, which gives value to the quality of positive result compared to overall 'stripped-down' results. The top ten PPRQ for Liverpool last year (the team average was 0.52788):

Suarez	0.62686
Sturridge	0.60947
Sterling	0.56348
Coutinho	0.54459
Gerrard	0.53748
Henderson	0.52640
Allen	0.51978
Johnson	0.51628
Flanagan	0.51585
Skrtel	0.51147

This basically means that Suarez produced a higher quality result (goal or assist) 62.686% of the time, that shouldn't be much a surprise.  

Loic Remy for £10m?! Truly mental!

QPR selling Loic Remy for only £10m is insane.  He's worth twice that, easy. If Rodgers can get him for £15m, that's still a great piece of business. Here's why:

	Loic Remy	Sturridge
age	27	24
app(subs)	24(2)	26(3)
mins	2098	2267
p90	23.3	25.2
goals	14	21
assist	3	7
chances	30	29
npgp90	0.6	0.83
gcp90	0.73	1.1
ccp90	1.29	1.2
ap90	0.13	0.28
ccv	10	23.3
pass%	80.8	79.3
bp%	58	53.4
sacc%	35.6	42.4
shot%	15.6	21.2
TTI90	11.2	11
gap90	1.07	1.23
gsp90	1.59	2.7
gop90	0.52	1.47
tgop	-0.42	1.32
gopd90	0.94	0.15

The number in blue on the bottom there is goals on pitch difference per 90 minutes played.  0.94 is phenomenal, especially for a player who has played as many matches and minutes as Remy.  It essentially means he was worth +36 goals when he took the pitch for Newcastle last season.  Need more convincing of his value? In the 26 matches that Remy featured, Newcastle garnered 45 points, the 12 he didn't, they only managed 4. 4!

The great thing is, none of his stats, except for maybe back pass percentage, hurt his value.  His 1.29 chances created per 90 and 10% chance created value are solid for a shoot-first striker.  He's above average with his shot opportunities and has a TTI90 comparable to Sturridge, but much better than Suarez at 17.

The only thing I worry about is how he would work with Sturridge, though I think they'll be able to adapt to one another since both are good on the ball and demonstrate intelligent football skills.  Lambert is still going to surprise some people when he and Studge are on the pitch together though.

The bottom line is Rodgers needs to sign Remy and now.  I have never seen that kind of goals on pitch difference and total points difference for a player and for £10m?! Ridiculous. 

Post-Suarez Liverpool will not 'collapse' like post-Bale Spurs

There has been a lot of speculation that what happened to the Spurs last season after Bale left for Real Madrid could be what awaits Liverpool now that Suarez is gone, but that's highly unlikely.  First and foremost, the Spurs 'collapse' was not just due to Bale's exit, but a massive roster changeover that saw seven important players replaced.  Villas-Boas essentially started with a new club and unlike Bale's final season with Spurs, Tottenham started the 2013-14 season on the grace of fortune.

They won their first two matches, at Palace and home against Swans, 1-0, both via penalty converted by Robert Soldado.  Then a loss at Emirates was followed by an unimpressive 2-0 win at White Hart Lane over Norwich City and a 1-0 win at Cardiff that despite 12 shots on goal, required 93' heroics by Paulinho to seal the victory.  They sat 2nd on the table, though undeservedly, when they next welcomed Chelsea, only managing a 1-1 draw despite going ahead in the 19th minute and having a man advantage after Torres was sent off for a second yellow in the 81st.

They still sat 2nd, but the 3-0 thrashing by the Hammers at White Hart Lane that followed revealed their biggest weakness, their inability to convert goal scoring opportunities.  Despite dominating possession, having a passing success rate of 83%, and 14 shots (4 on goal), Spurs could not put the ball in the back of the net.  Last season they were 11th in the league with 9.4% shot conversion rate and a chance created value of 7.5%, 15th in the league.  Roberto Soldado, the player they brought in to make up for Bale's goal-scoring absence, only scored 6 goals the entire campaign and 4 of those were pens.

Though Spurs managed to garner 7 points in the next three matches (@Villa, Hull, & @Everton), they had yet to play City or Liverpool, who handed them 4 decimating losses with a staggering combined -19 goal difference.  Ironically, that same defence which let goals go in against the top two like ghosts trying to stop bullets, saved Tottenham from a disastrous year, only allowing 31 goals against the other 17 clubs in the remaining 34 fixtures.

So how much did Bale's loss play in their attacking downfall? In his last season, Bale scored 21 goals and managed 4 assists.  He was responsible for 31.8% of goals scored and 37.8% goals created.  The Welshman was also responsible for 17.1% of his side's chances created, but his 5.3% chance created value was far below Spurs' average. As a team, Spurs scored 11 more goals, 66 to 55, and allowed 5 less, 46 to 51. Their shot conversion rate of 9.7%, was only 0.3% better, but their chance created value of 8.8% exceeded their following season's effort by 1.3%.  For all his efforts though, Bale had only a goals on pitch difference of 0.06, which means essentially he gave Tottenham a +2 goal edge for the season.

The most indicative sign that it was the unfamiliarity of the group instead of the absence of one player that lead to their lack of productivity was their passing and drop in chances created value.  The Spurs' overall passing rate dropped from 83.1 to 81.8% and ccv fell from 8.8% to 7.5%.  They clearly had trouble breaking down the opposition defence and creating more easily converted chances as they only attempted 5% of their shots inside their opponent's box, 2nd worst in the league.

Suarez, much like Bale, was responsible for a large part of Liverpool's goal-scoring prowess last season.  His 31 goals and 13 assists were 30.7% of goals scored and 43.6% goals created.  His chance created value was 14.2%, second to only Sturridge and 1.3% better than the club rate. His goals on pitch difference was 1.49,  a +0.17 difference compared to Liverpool's average of 1.32.  Suarez was more important to Liverpool's attack than Bale, but Liverpool still has Sturridge, Sterling, and Gerrard, while Spurs also got rid of Defoe and Dempsey along with Bale.  Those three made up 59.1% of Spurs' goals and 75.8% of goals created, that's absurd.

Tottenham struggled through last season because they lost a majority of their attack and had to rely on a large group of players gelling quickly if they were going to improve from the previous campaign.  That rarely happens, but Spurs still only finished a place lower and three points off the previous season.  Liverpool have the luxury of returning most of their players and all of their important ones except Suarez, of course.  As I have written prior, if Liverpool play better defence and make smarter decisions on the ball, they don't need to make up for the absence of Suarez, we could have won the league last season with 20 less goals, had we not played such poor defence. No matter what, finishing a place lower and three points off next season will be disappointing, though unlike Villas-Boas, I doubt it will cost Rodgers his job.

Karim 'Mercedes' Benzema is no Daniel 'La Ferrari' Sturridge

I have a mate who for years has been emphatically saying we should sign Benzema.  I just don't see it.  I don't think he's as good as advertised, but I've never crunched the numbers, so let's see how his stats from last season size-up with Sturridge.

	Benzema	Sturridge
npgp90	0.56	0.83
gcp90	0.85	1.1
ccp90	2.07	1.2
ap90	0.3	0.28
ccv	14.5	23.3
pass%	81.9	79.3
bp%	46.4	53.4
sacc%	45.1	42.4
shot%	16.7	21.2
TTI90	9.7	11
gap90	1.05	1.23
gsp90	2.75	2.7
gop90	1.7	1.47
tgop	1.74	1.32

Benzema's output isn't overwhelmingly impressive and definitely not worthy of £35-40m, which is his asking price.  Sturridge is the more prolific scorer and shows a higher football intelligence with his higher chance created value and shot percentage.  It's not that Benzema is wasteful in his pass and shot selection, he's just not as adept as our number 15.  Having superior pace than most forwards, Sturridge needs a set-up man with better pasing capabilities than Benzema, suprisingly we may already have that player in Rickie Lambert (18.6 ccv).

If we sign Markovic, I'm not sure we need any more attack-minded players.  We definitely don't need a player like Benzema, who does a lot of things well, but nothing in particular great.  The fact that he is surrounded by the caliber of player that he is at Madrid, his stats should at least show him to be more efficient.

Forget Benzema, forget trying to outscore our opponents every match, we need to go defensive.  One player we should try to buy is Real Sociedad's 21-year-old defensive midfielder Ruben Pardo.  He'll be the subject of my next post.

Wilfried Bony: All is fair in love and transfers, Spurs

Wilfried Bony had a pretty impressive first year in England, more impressive than most who come over from the Eredivisie.  Suarez didn't have that kind of year, not even close, neither did Christian Eriksen, though he was relatively close.  The most impressive thing about Bony's season was how much he got better as the season progressed.  He scored 12 goals and set up 3 more in the final 19 Prem matches.  In fact, he scored 5 and had 1 assist in the final 4.

Latest reports are that we are trying to 'hijack' Spurs bid for Bony.  Well, if that's not tongue-in-cheek, Sigurdsson anyone? I am all for signing the 25-year-old Ivorian striker, but not for the reportedly £40m that Swansea is asking.  That truly is mental.  Anything more than £35m would be too much risk of funds.

So how does he compare to let's say Sturridge?

	Bony	Sturridge
app(subs)	27(7)	26(3)
mins	2470	2267
p90	27.4	25.2
goals	16	21
assist	4	7
chances	25	29
npgp90	0.44	0.83
gcp90	0.73	1.1
ccp90	0.91	1.2
ap90	0.15	0.28
ccv	16.5	23.3
pass%	74.1	79.3
bp%	49.6	53.4
sacc%	37	42.4
shot%	14.8	21.2
TTI90	15.3	11
gap90	1.5	1.23
gsp90	1.62	2.7
gop90	0.12	1.47
tgop	0	1.32

Stat definitions can be found here.

Sturridge takes nearly every category save back pass percentage, but Bony is not far off.  Not bad for a first year Prem player compared to a well seasoned one.  If history stays true to itself, Bony will have an even better second season now that he's adapted to the English game and way of lifestyle.  He'll post even more impressive numbers with teammates like Sturridge, Coutinho, Sterling, and Gerrard, a luxury he did not have in Swansea.

One thing he can forget about is taking pens.  He enjoyed the padding of his stats last season with four of them, for us he will be at least third in line behind Gerrard and Sturridge, with Coutinho probably getting the nod over him if the Brazilian is on the pitch.

Will his signing actually happen? I'm not holding my breathe, but if does, suck it Tottenham.

https://docs.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B0oQNIr-YdiyVWVyY2t3T2R3VVE

Is Marco Reus the 'dream signing'?

It seems some people believe that Marco Reus would be the 'dream signing' for us.  Well, other than the fact that he would cost at least £35m to sign him, yes, he would be a great pick up, but do we really need him? I don't think so, he is a better all-round attacking midfielder than Sterling and Coutinho, but he's also 6 years older than the former and 3 years senior the latter. Let's look at their outputs from last season:

	Marco Reus	Coutinho	Sterling
age	25	22	19
app(subs)	26(4)	28(5)	24(9)
mins	2208	2323	2220
p90	24.5	25.8	24.7
goals	16	5	9
assist	13	7	5
chances	90	64	51
npgp90	0.41	0.19	0.36
gcp90	1.18	0.47	0.57
ccp90	3.67	2.5	2.06
ap90	0.53	0.27	0.2
ccv	14.4	10.8	9.7
pass%	74.5	80.6	81.7
bp%	44.5	36.7	46.8
sacc%	43.6	28.7	48.9
shot%	14.5	7	20
TTI90	17.6	11	12.1
gap90	1.27	1.43	1.26
gsp90	2.41	3.02	2.8
gop90	1.14	1.59	1.54
tgop	1.24	1.32	1.32

Stats definitions can be found here.

Reus seriously dominates the individual p90s, his 3.67 chance created per 90 is impressive alone, but 14.4% of those are converted into goals, better than both his above counterparts.  His passing overall could improve and probably the most perplexing stat is his goals on pitch 90 being -0.10 less than his team's gop average. Also his true turnover rate is a dismal 17.6, mainly due to his errant passing and being easily dispossessed.

Do we really need to spend £35m on an attacking midfielder? Don't get me wrong, I understand we can play him 'in the hole' behind Sturridge, but we could also you those funds to buy better defenders and not have to try and outscore all of our opponents.  Plus I think we need to give Sterling, Coutinho, and even Jordan Henderson as much time on the pitch as possible to so they can become as good as Reus is now.

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

	mins	pp90	ga	gap90	gs	gsp90	diff
Coutinho	2323	25.8	37	1.43	78	3.02	1.59
Sterling	2220	24.7	31	1.26	69	2.80	1.54
Agger	1421	15.8	18	1.14	42	2.66	1.52
Suarez	2962	32.9	47	1.43	96	2.92	1.49
Sturridge	2267	25.2	31	1.23	68	2.70	1.47
Johnson	2515	27.9	38	1.36	79	2.83	1.47
Henderson	3129	34.8	42	1.21	93	2.67	1.47
Allen	1443	16.0	21	1.31	44	2.75	1.44
Skrtel	3221	35.8	50	1.40	99	2.77	1.37
Gerrard	2895	32.2	44	1.37	86	2.67	1.30
Flanagan	1890	21.0	38	1.81	63	3.00	1.19
Lucas	1896	21.1	27	1.28	49	2.32	1.04
Toure	1443	16.0	20	1.25	36	2.25	1.00
Sakho	1478	16.4	25	1.52	38	2.32	0.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.