Expect a big match from Balotelli versus Villa

Mario Balotelli took a little warming his first go-around in the Prem.  In fact, his first season at City was somewhat forgettable.  The first time he saw the pitch was a 3-0 loss to Arsenal at the Etihad.  He was a surprise sub, expected to be out due to injury, but he came on for the then 10-man City side in the 72nd minute for a fruitless effort to break his duck.  They were already down 2-0 and to make matters even more embarrassing, Nicklas Bendtner added a third.

His first full debut was a week later at the Molineaux.  City were more pretenders than contenders at the time and it showed.  They had yet to add some missing pieces, most notably Samir Nasri, and Balotelli actually started on the left behind Adebayor.  It was a dreadful performance for the Italian who had 5 shots, though none on-goal, was 15 of 21 passing (71.4%) and caused 17 turnovers. His only positives were 2 chances created and 2 successful tackles, as a red-faced City fell 2-1.

In his third match he finally scored, twice in fact, at the Hawthorns with both goals less than 7 minutes apart.  He then managed a straight red after 'kicking-out' while entangled with Youssuf Mulumbu.  He wouldn't score again until a hat-trick against Aston Villa at the end of December 2010, which included two pens.  He would end that season with only 6 goals, 0 assists, and 8 chances created in 17 appearances.

Flash forward to February 3, 2013.  Balotelli had made the switch to AC Milan and makes his debut at the San Siro versus Udinese.  He managed a brace, the first an ugly left-footed straggler in the box and the other a pen from a gratuitous call earned by an near-paraplegic Sharaaway.  He would go on to score in 8 of the final 10 matches played by Milan that season for a total of 12 goals in 13 matches.

So what should we expect?  A brace in his next match? Well, it's certainly probable considering it will be his first at Anfield and the opponent will be Villa, but he should be a factor in the least.  I fully expect he and Sturridge (if fit) to get at least one each.  This is the match that we need to send a message to the rest of the league and that message should be, 'We are contenders and we aren't going anywhere.'

Ballotelli business better than Man United & Falcao

I will probably never be happy that Mario Balotelli is part of our club.  Three years from now, if he's still a productive member of the squad, I'll eat my words, but his track record speaks for itself.  He grows tired of his manager, the staff, his teammates, club officials, the press and the supporters and starts acting out in the third year.  It happened at Inter, it happened at City, and most recently, it happened at Milan, where they got rid of him before he became a cancer.  If he breaks the cycle, great, but don't hold your breathe.  Let's not wait like City did, if he starts costing us matches by his behavior either on or off the pitch, I hope whomever in charge, hopefully Rodgers, puts him in the reserves dungeon and throws away the key until he can be shipped off elsewhere.  Madrid will probably come knocking by then anyhow.

No matter how it plays out though, £17.6m to sign Balotelli is a much better deal than acquiring Falcao on a year-long loan for £6.7m plus £10m salary and an option to buy him at the end of the season for an additional £40m.  Super Mario is basically a younger, faster, stronger, and more skilled verison of Falcao.  If anyone complains, like myself, that all Ballotelli can do is score goals, well, Falcao can only score less.  Plus the Italian can physically impose himself on the opposition and worry their defence to no end, creating space for teammates.  I don't see the 177cm (5'10"), 72kg (160lb) Colombian with no Premier League experience having much presence, wait until they play Stoke.

Their career club league stats are quite comparable:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	sdr90	tti90	gopd
Balotelli	0.47	0.14	0.77	1.33	0.1	0.757	0.382	0.121	2.14	14.6	-0.46
Falcao	0.57	0.08	0.75	0.90	0.05	0.797	0.492	0.305	0.79	11.21	0.06

First things first, Falcao is four-and-a-half years older than Super Mario.  Which means he's probably at his peak and won't improve much more, not to mention he'll have to make the adjustments for the English game.  Quick, name a 28-year-old South American and/or La Liga player who came to the Premier League and made a significant impact? Don't even try to say Valencia, he's been in the league for eight years now.  The closest is probably Coloccini, but he was 26 when he signed with Newcastle and he's a defender.  Maybe Falcao will make history, but I doubt it.

Mario is a better team player and that says mountains, since we all know what kind of a 'team player' he is.  The thing is, Balotelli has the ability to be a great asset to the club as a whole, while I don't think Falcao has the capacity to do so, because if he did, he would have already done so with Porto or Atletico or Monaco.  He has never been a significant 'defending forward' and forget about setting up others on goal.  When Balotelli cares and tries, which honestly, this is his last chance to do so before he becomes a true pariah, he is eons better than his Colombian counterpart.

In the end, it won't matter though.  If Falcao scores goals and does nothing else, even have the worst efficiency in the league, the Mangoloids won't care.  I honestly think the EPL is too physical for him and can see an injury-riddled season where he gets sent packing back to Monaco in the end.

(Oh and just a quick point because I can see it coming, 16 of Falcao's last 63 league goals since joining La Liga have been penalties compared to 15 of 55 for Balotelli, so save that rubbish for your pub trash bin banter.)

Sterling stole the show, but Hendo was the Lone Ranger

I could really care less about international football at the moment.  With Gerrard no longer carrying England, it's lost a lot of it's luster, and let's face it, Norway isn't exactly a glamorous opponent. Sterling did make it quite an exhibition though.  Our diminutive winger/attacking midfielder/second forward had 67 touches in which he completed 43 0f 50 passes, 2 take-ons, 4 fouls won, 2 tackles, and a ridiculous 7 chances created, 3 more than his entire fellow countrymen combined. He also won the pen that unfortunately was the match's only goal.

Some of that was due to Sturridge's inability to get a decent shot off.  I don't want to say he's in a slump, but... he's in a slump.  It should be flattering to him that three goalless matches, one which matters not, is worrisome.  Villa come to town next, so he should get a few good shots in.  His 12 losses of possession only added to a forgettable night.

Henderson put in a valiant effort as well.  He lead the side with a 117 touches, 110 pass attempts, and 101 completions, giving him a pass completion percentage rate of 91.8%.  He was so awesome, his heat map looked the Lone Ranger:

I guess that makes Wayne Rooney, 'Tonto'. 

Spurs 0, LFC 3: Five things learnt

1. Mamadou Sakho is a bad influence.
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal.  Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury.  It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.

2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box.  Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created.  Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.

3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter.  All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated.  That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:

	att	def	ovr
Tottenham	0.633	0.679	0.656
Liverpool	0.54	0.645	0.593

As you can see, Tottenham were superior, they just weren't able to take advantage of their chances.  That could have been due to Liverpool's defence or Spurs' incompetence.

4. Do I really have to start calculating 'forced back passes'?

Tottenham were forced to make 94 backward passes in Liverpool's third out of 121 completed overall.  They attempted 95 and 160 respectively, which means that 38 times the ball either went out of bounds or changed possession.  It also means they were only able to continue their forward attack on 27 passes.

5. Liverpool can play defence when they want to.

28 tackles, 14 interceptions, 45 clearances, and 2 blocked shots, that's quite a line.  Not to mention the clean sheet.  The good part is we can play better and will need to when we have to play the real contenders.  The moments of communication breakdown were quite evident versus Spurs and others will punish us for that.

Sturridge remains least efficient on Liverpool, N'Zogbia now worst overall

*Only players with 180 minutes played qualify.

Sturridge is still the least overall efficient player LFC player at 0.492.  He has averaged about 12 'give-aways' per match and a 78.1% pass completion percentage.  True strikers are always going to be 'middle of the pack' at best as they take more chances and are usually out-numbered in the final third. Jovetic is the highest rated and he's 71st in the league, Sturridge ranks 155th out of 191.  Goals don't matter much, even if Sturridge had scored 10 goals in the first three matches, his per would have only went up to 0.565, good for only 126th, which happens to be Alexis Sanchez' current ranking.

The ten worst overall per:

C. N'Zogbia	0.338
L. Jutkiewicz	0.355
M. Phillips	0.358
C. Wickham	0.361
M. Biram Diouf	0.390
Kieran Tripper	0.394
C. Cole	0.399
Loic Remy	0.409
Y. Bolasie	0.419
J. Schlupp	0.420

I didn't realize N'Zogbia still played  in the league, I also can't believe he's only 28.  Seems like he's been around forever.  Loic Remy was clearly unhappy at QPR, watch how miraculously his stats go up at Chelsea.  Not only because he got out of Loftus Road, but now he's got world class service from Fabregas & Co.

Just how statistically poor was Balotelli vs Spurs?

Before all you fan boys get out your stakes out and start your trash can fires, this post isn't going to be a complete slagging of Balotelli.  Everyone has to understand the expectations that come with a name like 'Super' Mario.  Unfortunately, the fact that we didn't pay £24m for his loan move (you're chum, Falcao) won't matter, even if we had gotten him on a free, he will always be a target for the press and opposition supporters.  He didn't do himself any favors against Spurs though.

Balotelli had 34 possessions (or touches) at White Hart Lane, completed just 8 of 16 passes, took 5 shots, but only one was on-goal.  Factor in his (lack of) defensive contributions and he was accountable for 12 negative changes of possession in 61 minutes.   He did have a chance created and three clearances though.

His attacking efficiency ended up being 0.324, the worst on the team.  For perspective, Lazar Markovic who has played a similar 59 minutes, destroys 'Super' Mario with a 0.744.  Sturridge who is worst on the team among minutes played qualifiers is still better than his Italian strike-mate with a 0.532.  Even Ricky Lambert betters him with 0.625.

He had a poor debut, you can either admit it or take residence in delusion land, where Glenn Johnson is still a good right back.  When he has such matches, he has to do the one thing that can be quantified, he has to create space.  He has to be a threat, go to open areas and force the opposition defence take notice, so Sturridge, Sterling, and other teammate have room to operate.

My feed was down the past couple of days so if you want to go to any missed articles they are below:
Liverpool has played the hardest schedule, boasts the best defence
Wanted: Yaya Sanogo, for impersonating a footballer (Match Day 3 morsels)
Skrtel top defensively, Flamini take over attack & overall efficiency
Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness

Liverpool has played hardest schedule, boasts best defence

Not being too pleased with defensive rating results after matches this past weekend, I decided to tweak my formula to consider strength of opponent.  Mainly I just wanted to make it so I could 'prove' Liverpool have been the best defensive side and that Man U are not as good as my ratings say.  Unfortunately, I could only manage the former.

Here are the most difficult schedules according to opponent's attack efficiency:

team	opp ape
Liverpool	0.66872
Leicester	0.65853
Burnley	0.65069
C Palace	0.62751
WBA	0.61973

I didn't even factor in home field advantage, which would more than likely pad Liverpool's lead at the top of the table considering they have played at City and at Spurs. In the end though, it is a non-factor since all clubs will have played each other home and away, but I will probably start factoring it in after match day five.

The least difficult schedules?

club	opp ape
Arsenal	0.52008
Hull City	0.53570
Chelsea	0.54696
Newcastle	0.55131
Tottenham	0.57160

Arsenal, far and away, have had the easiest walk in the park, but have only managed 5 points in 3 matches.  Is Hull relegation bound?  Their second half against Villa suggests not, but they still lost and their schedule just gets harder from here on out.

So here are the adjusted defensive rankings:

club	adj dpe
Liverpool	0.93203
Burnley	0.93190
Stoke	0.90287
Man U	0.87822
Leicester	0.87333

Burnley and Leicester are here on strength of schedule and the fact that two of their first three matches have been at home.  Stoke is apparently the real deal as they showed at City Saturday and Man U is basically here because they dominated two crap sides, only managing draws though, and lost to a somewhat decent Swansea attack.

Worst defences:

club	adj dpe
Aston Villa	0.798
Swansea	0.805
Hull City	0.806
Tottenham	0.810
Newcastle	0.816

Villa come to Anfield next and if LFC take them seriously, it should be a route.

Wanted: Yaya Sanogo, for impersonating a footballer (Match day 3 morsels)

 - Aaron Ramsey created 6 chances for Arsenal against Leicester, though none resulted in goal.  He had all of zero going into the match.  He also had a redonkulous 134 touches, was 101 of 116 passing (87.1%), 11 of 14 on long balls, a shot-on target, one tackle, 3 interceptions, and 2 clearances.

- Arsenal had 19 chances created total at Leicester, 4 less than Man United has produced all year, as many as Burnley has managed thus far, and two more than the Villans this season.

- Yaya Sanogo took seven shots, two on-goal, one busted a windshield in the parking lot, one woke up an old Arsenal fan who resumed knitting her grandson a cap, another landed in the cotton candy machine, and there are missing persons reports being filed for the other two as I write this.

- Villa were so dreadful that Fabian Delph was named second best player of the match.  Also, they went down in defence rankings to dead last despite playing at home to Hull.  Poor Alan Hutton.

- Nemanja Matic put in a player of the week performance with a goal, an assist, 2 chances created, 3 successful take-ons, 5 tackles, 2 interceptions, a clearance, and a blocked shot.

- Andy King completed 31 of 35 (88.6%) passes, created 4 chances, 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 take-on and one blocked shot.  The rest of his side created 5 chances total.

- Southampton's Dusan Tadic created 5 chances, completed 92.2% of his passes (47 of 51), had 4 tackles, an interception, and a shot-on target.

- Patrick van Aanholt and Phillip 'Beaker' Jones became the first members of the 10-10-10 club (10 tackles, 10 interceptions, 10 clearances) for the season.  Javier Manquillo is only three clearances away and Hull's Andy Robertson is currently a member of the quite rare 9-9-9 club.

- Kaspar Schmeichel was 12 on 31 long balls giving him a league-leading 35 of 96.  The next nearest on completions is Burnley's Tom Heaton who is 29 of 60 and the next in attempts is Hull's Alan McGregor with 79.

- Antonio Valencia was 0 for 12 on crosses against Burnley pushing Man United to dead last in the league with a 11.7% completion rate (9 of 77).

- Mike Williamson & Graziano Pelle are tied with 20 aerial duels won, only it took the Newcastle defender 21 less attampts to do so (24 to 45).

Skrtel top defensively, Flamini takes over attack & overall

Martin Skrtel didn't even touch the pitch on Sunday, but he still went to the top of the defensive efficieny table.  That's what happen when everyone else falters.  If he doesn't play at least 60 minutes in two weeks time when we host Villa, he'll no longer qualify.

player	dpe
M. Skrtel	0.905
M. Flamini	0.899
C. Chambers	0.889
J. O'Shea	0.888
P. McShane	0.878
R. Ferdinand	0.877
F. Coloccini	0.877
D. Lovren	0.873
V. Kompany	0.873
P. Jagielka	0.870

 Flamini has produced an absolutely ridiculous 95.2% pass completion rate in his two matches for Arsenal, which helped him take top in both attack and overall efficiency.  The most excellent Morgan Schniederlin makes his debut in attack rankings and I expect him to be there for the long run.

player	ppe
M. Flamini	0.856
S. Nasri	0.855
Y. Toure	0.838
D. Fletcher	0.813
S. Cazorla	0.805
N. Bentaleb	0.803
Cesc Fàbregas	0.789
E. Capoue	0.788
Schneiderlin	0.785
G. Barry	0.784

John O'Shea may be a bit surprising, but he rarely makes mistakes, and Capoue is a ball-moving machine, second in the league only to Aaron Ramsey with 339 touches but leads with 301 pass attempts.  Gerrard dropped to 33rd overall, by the way.

player	per
M. Flamini	0.878
Y. Toure	0.837
J. O'Shea	0.834
S. Nasri	0.829
C. Chambers	0.829
F. Coloccini	0.829
E. Capoue	0.824
D. Fletcher	0.824
Fernando	0.821
V. Kompany	0.818

Without Dean Hammond and Andy King, Leicester would probably be pointless, as would there season, but those two have carried the foxes thus far.

player	eot
D. Hammond	0.207
J. O'Shea	0.206
Andy King	0.202
David Jones	0.192
J. Olsson	0.182
Ron Vlaar	0.179
Dean Marney	0.179
G. Whelan	0.179
F. Coloccini	0.169
P. Senderos	0.168

Skrtel is Liverpool's most valuable player with 0.148 eot, followed by Lovren at 0.108 and Gerrard at 0.100.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness...

They dominated possession, had a higher pass completion percentage, and were superior in the air, but Tottenham still limped away 3-0 losers.  How could this be? Counter attack and positioning.  All three of Liverpool goals were due to anticipating our opponent's movements and responding quickly.  That takes practice and talent, an ode to our mad Professor Rodgers.

What made it most impressive is that Gerrard had an uncharacteristically poor performance on attack, but made up for it on defence.  He completed just 71.1% of his passes, his lowest amount for a long time, but did have 3 tackles and 8 clearances.  Without some of those clearances, it may have been a closer match.

Gerrard's bi-polar display was quite indicative of many other LFC 'stars'.  Sterling was tremendous on the ball, scored a great goal, but his passing was poor (69.7%)and he really should have had scored from point blank range.  Lovren was impressive as well with 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 13 clearances, but his passing was also dreadful and he had to make two potential goal-saving tackles that were probably his fault to begin with.

Balotelli and Allen were not at their best, but Manquillo and Sturridge were the worst of the bunch.  The former was clearly rattled and wasted passes throughout, while the latter seemed to be trying to hard to make things happen.  I don't want to say he is trying to make up for the loss of Suarez, but he is, and it isn't working.  He's got to let the match come to him.

Henderson, Can, and Markovic played well, the last two in a cameo capacity.  I can't wait to see how the Serbian does in a full debut, he's very confident and smooth on the ball, which is entertaining to watch.  My man of the match though was Moreno, but not just because of his lung-bursting stunner.  He also added 4 tackles, 9 clearances, and a passing percentage of  87.1%, when others failed to post decent passing stats.

This was a must-win for several reasons, mostly for the confidence of the team and supporters.  If we can go into a place like White Hart Lane and not play to the best of our ability, but still come away with an impressive 3-0 win, just imagine who we can beat at our best.  Fortunately our next 12 fixtures are favorable, hopefully we'll win all of them and be at our confident best when Chelsea come to town November 8th.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 1: thoughts on the 'fast' break

It's been quite an entertaining half, at least between the boxes.  Both sides seem to have had great build-ups in possession, but in so, neither seem to be able to create solid chances in the opposition's box.  All the potential goals and the solo goal have come on the counter.

Spurs dominated possession the first third of the match, but then Liverpool started to take control.  During Tottenham's seeming domination, the only goal came about on a tremendous effort by Henderson, who intercepted the initial ball and passed to Sturridge.  Studge, who isn't having the best of afternoons, played the ball into a streaking Henderson, who found Sterling brilliantly on a cross box pass.  Sterling slotted it in, leaving Spurs defence wondering what had just happened.

The quickness of the scoring string was indicative of Liverpool's play so far.  They set a precedent on pace and Spurs are struggling to keep it up.  If they want to play our style, we should be able to add a couple of more goals in the second.  If they slow it down, well, as long they cover the counter, this match is probably over as they are having trouble breaking the box playing that way.

As for individual performance, Sterling and Henderson are the cream of a rather mediocre crop.  Balotelli has played well, but he really should have a goal with chances like his header gone wide on the Gerrard free kick and that open goal when Lloris straggled out of the box.  Speaking of Gerrard, he's had a very up-and-down match, more down though, if he can calm down it will greatly increase our chances of three points.  On ward and (hopefully) upward...

Sturridge dethrones Coutinho as the king of inefficiency: Liverpool stat leaders

Chances created

R. Sterling	4
S. Gerrard	3
Henderson	3
P. Coutinho	2
D. Sturridge	2

Passing

Emre Can	10	10	1.000
D. Lovren	119	129	0.922
M. Skrtel	118	130	0.908
A. Moreno	38	42	0.905
S. Gerrard	123	136	0.904

Shots

	sh	sot	shacc	sh%
D. Sturridge	8	3	0.375	0.125
R. Sterling	5	3	0.600	0.200
Henderson	2	0	0.000	0.000
G. Johnson	2	0	0.000	0.000
L. Leiva	1	1	1.000	0.000
R. Lambert	1	1	1.000	0.000

  

Aerial duels

M. Skrtel	9	11	0.818
D. Lovren	8	17	0.471
G. Johnson	3	4	0.750
S. Gerrard	2	3	0.667
J. Manquillo	2	3	0.667

 

Tackles

J. Manquillo	6
Henderson	6
D. Lovren	4
S. Gerrard	4
A. Moreno	4

  

Interceptions

D. Lovren	6
M. Skrtel	6
J. Manquillo	4
Henderson	2
S. Gerrard	2

  

Clearances

M. Skrtel	25
D. Lovren	17
J. Manquillo	5
S. Gerrard	4
L. Leiva	4

  

Attacking efficiency

S. Gerrard	0.797
D. Lovren	0.726
M. Skrtel	0.708
R. Sterling	0.681
J. Allen	0.672

  

Defensive efficiency

M. Skrtel	0.905
D. Lovren	0.896
S. Gerrard	0.842
L. Leiva	0.833
Emre Can	0.706

  

Overall efficiency

S. Gerrard	0.820
D. Lovren	0.811
L. Leiva	0.808
M. Skrtel	0.807
Henderson	0.674

  

Efficiency over team

S. Gerrard	0.135
D. Lovren	0.127
L. Leiva	0.124
M. Skrtel	0.122
Henderson	-0.010

  

So only four players boast a positive EOT, which means they make up for half of the sides' positive results in possession.  If that doesn't improve, Liverpool are in a world of trouble.

Least efficient players overall

D. Sturridge	0.494
P. Coutinho	0.571
G. Johnson	0.622
J. Manquillo	0.624
R. Lambert	0.625

Obscured by Dowd: A history of the ref & LFC

Phil Dowd is the ref for this Sunday's match at White Hart Lane, here is a breakdown of his record with Liverpool.  He has refereed 57 matches featuring Liverpool Football Club in all competitions.  In those matches, LFC is 21-12-14 and have accumulated 61 cards, 57 yellows, 2 yellow-reds and 1 straight red.  Our opponents have received 88 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 2 straight reds.

Dowd has awarded 5 penalties to Liverpool all-time, 4 at Anfield and 1 on the road (funny enough coming in a loss at White Hart Lane).  Three of those came against Crystal Palace in 2004 with Milan Baros converting two.  The Czech striker had the third waved off, but he still managed a hat-trick in the 3-2 win at Anfield.

Away from Anfield, LFC is 6-4-10 under the disciplinary guidance of Mr. Dowd in all competitions, receiving 37 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 1 straight red.  Their opponents have accumulated 40 cards, all yellow.

In Premier League play, Liverpool is 17-12-10 with Dowd, but only 4-6-9 away from Anfield.  They have received 33 cards in visiting matches (31 y, 1 y-r, 1 r) while their home opponents have been booked 29 times, all yellow.

Twice Dowd has mediated matches between Spurs and LFC at White Hart Lane, both times Tottenham won.  The first time in January 2008, a heart-breaking affair that would wind up costing Liverpool a chance at the title that season.  Up 1-0 through two-thirds of the match, Jamie Carragher headed in an own goal against the run of play and in the 91st minute, a shambolic defensive display allowed Pavlyuchenko to score the winner.

The second match occurred November 2012, also resulting in a 2-1 Spurs win.  The north London club went up 2-0 in the opening 16 minutes with goals from Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale, never looking back.  The only 'goal' Liverpool could manage was a Bale own goal in the 72nd minute.

Dowd has over seen some other significant matches including Brendan Rodgers' EPL debut as LFC manager.  In a controversial affair at the Hawthorns, Dowd awarded West Brom two ridiculous penalties and handed five cards to Liverpool players including a laughable straight red to Daniel Agger.  Another match he refereed was our 1-2 FA Cup final loss to Chelsea in May 2012.