Toby Alderweireld: A good signing but only at the right price

According to reports, the player in which we are latest linked is Atletico Madrid and Belgium defender, Toby Alderweireld.  The 25-year-old former Ajax player has become frustrated with his lack of playing time at Atletico and is looking to go elsewhere, despite only joining the La Liga champions last summer.  His preferred position is centre back, but has also provided cover at right back for club and country.  Here's how he sizes up statistically against Sakho, Skrtel, Agger, and Old Man Toure:

	Alderweireld	Sakho	Skrtel	Agger	Toure
age	25	24	29	29	old
app(subs)	17(3)	18(1)	36	16(4)	15(5)
mins	1576	1478	3221	1421	1443
goals	1	1	7	2	0
assist	0	0	1	1	2
chances	0	2	7	2	7
npgp90	0.06	0.06	0.2	0.13	0
gcp90	0.06	0.06	0.22	0.19	0.13
ccp90	0	0.12	0.2	0.13	0.44
pass%	81.6	92.5	90.8	89.1	86.4
bp%	24.9	22.6	23.7	18.7	20.5
sacc%	50	10	53.3	42.8	14.3
shot%	12.5	10	46.7	28.6	0
tp90	2.5	1.6	1.4	1.7	2.1
tack %	58.5	71.4	50	55.6	65.1
intp90	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.9
clrp90	6.1	8.3	11.5	7.2	9.2
dribpp90	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
bsp90	0.6	0.4	1.1	0.5	0.8
adwp90	1.7	2.9	3.6	2.8	2.7
adwon%	75	56	70.1	65.2	50.6
TTI90	8.5	5.6	5.2	5	5.8
avg rank	3.44	3.06	2	2.69	3.25

His overall ranking of 3.44 is last among the group, in fact, statistically the only thing that could even be deemed 'impressive' is his aerial duels won percentage. He is comparable in many fields, but do we really want to waste our time with a seemingly average player?  It's hard to use the 'potential argument' for a 25-year-old, that's the United way, but he does impress in this video, especially with his passing:

Alderweireld is valued at around £9m, but that's just too high.  Atletico bought him for £6.16m and being that they appear not to care whether he stays or not, maybe they'll take £7m or £7.5m.  We can throw in Aspas to carry the ball bags as well.  If we can get him for that, I'd say go for it, then at the very least  we'll have coverage at right back.

Roy Hodgson: the worst Liverpool manager ever?

Seems to be the sexy thing these days to ridicule Ole Roy Boy, but is he really the worst Liverpool manager ever?  Worse than Don Welsh or George Patterson? I'm not so sure, but I will say he is the worst since I've followed the club.  Let's take a look at his transfers:

Players In	Club	Fee
Joe Cole	Chelsea	Free
Danny Wilson	Rangers	£2m
Christian Poulsen	Juventus	£4.55m
Brad Jones	Middlesborough	£2.3m
Raul Meireles	Porto	£11.5m
Paul Konchesky	Fulham	£3.5m
Players Out
Albert Riera	Olympiacos	£3.3m
Diego Cavalieri	Cesena	£3m
Krisztian Nemeth	Olympiacos	£1m
Javier Mascherano	Barcelona	£17.25m
Lauri Dalla Valle	Fulham	£750k
Alex Kacaniklic	Fulham	£750k
Damien Plesis	Panathinaikos	Undisclosed
Charles Itandje	Atromitos	Free

He brought in Paul Konchesky for £3.5m and sent youngsters Dalla Valle and Kacaniklic the other way to Fulham.  Konchesky was 29-years-old at the time and Hodgson thought he could be the solution at left back? He's Paul Konchesky, he couldn't even find a place in any other Premier League side when he left. Hodgson should have been sacked for buying him alone.  The worse part is Kacaniklic turned out to be a pretty good player and Emiliano Insua, who plays for Atletico Madrid now I might add, was sent out on loan to make room.

Out of all his purchases, Brad Jones solely remains at the club and really only Raul Meireles was a good buy.  I like Joe Cole, but he was also 29-years-old and frankly past it, Danny Wilson never panned out and was sent back to Scotland where helped get Hearts relegated last season, and Poulsen was a knob.

In defense of Hodgson, which I can't believe I just wrote that, he did get rid of some dead weight.  Riera wasn't working out, there was no place for Cavalieri, Nemeth's and Plesis' potential never came to fruition, and Itandje became a pariah for his disrespectful Hillsborough display.  The loss of Mascherano was a crushing blow, but he wanted to leave and Hodgson didn't appear to care if he stayed or not.

Roy Hodgson's 41.94 winning percentage is the worst of any Liverpool manager in the last 23 years and the worst in the last 58 years save Ronnie Moran's 10 match stint as caretaker manager in 1991 and the brief Houllier/Evans joint reign in 1998. Under Hodgson, we lost to Blackpool and Wolverhampton at Anfield. Blackpool was relegated that season and the Wolves avoided the drop by just one point.  We sat in 19th place 8 matches into the season and were eliminated from the League Cup by League Two side, Northampton Town.

There's no doubt Hodgson's term was a disaster. He sums it up best when talking about our 'amazing' comeback draw with Sunderland on Semptember 25th at Anfield: "The way we came back from 2-1 down was very commendable and towards the end of the game we were creating a lot of chances. We deserved our point." It was not even a deserved draw, but Hodgson seems content with it. A good manager would have said how we played like shite, our first goal shouldn't have counted, and our performance unacceptable and didn't meet Liverpool standards, instead of 'oh well, jolly good match, we got a point.'

Hodgson is clearly past it.  His tactics that have worked for him for '35 years' don't work for big clubs.  He was a failure with Liverpool and should probably go manage in the Championship.  His beloved Fulham are right there waiting and Felix Magath would most likely be happy to step aside.

Lazar Markovic: quick as Messi, crafty as Zlatan

The player we have latest been linked to is Benfica and Serbian winger/striker Lazar Markovic.  He is 20-years-old, 175cm (5'9"), lightning quick, and has a skill set that reminds me of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

For some reason finding statistics for Liga Sagres is very difficult, even if I spoke Portuguese.  I won't even get into stats from the Serbian SuperLiga, if anything more than superficial exist.  Here's what I could throw together:

app (sub)	96
mins	6318
goals	19
assists	18
chances	7*
npg90	0.27
gcp90	0.53
ccp90	0.88*
pass	316**
att	398**
pass %	79.4*
bp %	60.6*
sacc %	50*
shot %	12.5**
TTI90	9**

* stats are only from European matches in 2013-14 for Benfica

** stats are from European matches in 2012-13 for Partizan Belgrade & 2013-14 for Benfica

Overall, not that impressive, but he does show flashes of brilliance and he did just turn 20 in March.  He also tends to command influence in his performances as shown in this video:

Is he worth the £25m though? Potentially yes, but it's quite risky.  He's an exciting player with a decade of football ahead of him.  Statistically, he doesn't blow anyone away, especially his back pass percentage, but he does create a goal every other match.

I'm not one who advocates spending that kind of cash for a potential superstar, but I'm on the fence with Markovic.  There's just something about him that makes me think he's going to be quite special in a few years and it would be a shame if Liverpool lost out.

Sturridge & Lambert just as good as Rooney & RVP

I'm obsessed... with numbers that is.  Yesterday I wrote a piece about how Man U severrely skewed the market for overpaying for Herrera and Luke Shaw.  Needless  to say, I got some interesting responses from our second favorite club's fans.  Some of those referred to Rickie Lambert not being the best choice as our man up front, which is ignorant in itself as we all know Sturridge will play there as long as he's healthy.

It goes without saying that Sturridge & Suarez are eons better than Rooney & Van Persie, but Sturridge & Lambert are at least comparable.  Here are each pair's combined stats from last season:

	Sturridge & Lambert	Rooney & RVP
goals	34	29
assists	17	13
chances	82	72
npg90	0.55	0.54
gcp90	0.9	0.94
ccp90	1.4	1.6
pass %	73.5	79.4
bp %	46.1	49
sacc %	39.2	39.3
shot %	16	17.8
TTI90	27.3	25.9

As you can see, not much difference.  Of course, Rooney and RVP cost Man United £71m when adjusted for inflation, while Sturridge and Lambert only cost LFC £19m, which is £52m less for all you math-challenged Mancunians.  That would have been plenty to buy Herrera and Shaw for a club that knows how to negotiate a transfer.

United buy Ander & Luke Shaw for £60m+, way to go NUMPTIES!

Wow, I haven't seen a bad bit of business like this in a long time.  Especially not in a single day. Ander Herrera will be 25-years-old by the time Premier League season starts and he's never been called up to play for his country.  Is this the kind of player Man U has stooped too?  Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, but he's no where near worth £30m. Let's see how he stacks up against our midfield:

	Herrera	Sterling	Gerrard	Can	Coutinho	Hendo
age	25*	19	34	20	22	24
app (sub)	31(2)	24(9)	33(1)	24(5)	28(5)	35
mins	2548	2220	2895	2190	2323	3129
goals	5	9	13	3	5	4
assists	5	5	13	3	7	7
chances	53	51	67	16	64	62
npg90	0.18	0.36	0.09	0.12	0.19	0.12
gcp90	0.35	0.57	0.81	0.25	0.47	0.32
ccp90	1.9	2.1	2.1	0.7	2.5	1.8
pass %	80.6	81.7	85.9	77.9	80.6	87.1
bp %	40.6	46.8	30.6	39.6	36.7	41.2
sacc %	27.9	48.9	51.7	31.4	28.7	32.7
shot %	7.4	20	27.1	12	7	8.2
TTI90	15.3	12.1	10.9	13.2	11	9.5

His numbers are most comparable to Coutinho and Henderson. Our Brazilian produces more chances and turns over the ball much less.  Need I remind anyone that we got him for £8.8m? Three times less, three years younger, and more productive.

Henderson is the far superior passer, turns over the ball much less, and is nearly a year younger.  Dalglish was ridiculed for paying around £16m for Henderson, but compared to what Man U gave Atletico Bilbao for Ander, he looks like a genius.

I've had my say about Luke Shaw. If he turns out to be as productive as Kolarov, his price is somewhat justfied, but he's got a lot of work to get there and he's got to stay healthy to do so.  Southampton must be laughing all the way to the bank, £20m was probably too much.

The thing that pisses me off more than anything is that buys like these severrely skew the market value of players.  Brendan Rodgers has made some really bad buys (Borini & Aspas come to mind), but Coutinho and Sturridge help us forget.  I have a feeling Can, who we got for £10.5m, will end up being a great add as well. 

Man U seems to lack the ability to make deals via leverage and just splashes the cash to avoid negotiation.  If a player wants to leave a club and his valuation is surpassed, it's hard for the retaining club to deny such a transaction.  Luke Shaw is not worth £30m, but unfortunately Ricardo Rodriguez is now probably worth £50m because of deals like these.

How Liverpool & Suarez can benefit from his ban

Instead of looking on the punishment FIFA dished out Suarez as a huge dark cloud that will doom our season, let's look at some possible positives.  First and foremost, Suarez needs some time off.  Despite his two goals in the England match, he was dreadful, and he was even more useless against Italy.  In fact, since his hat-trick against Cardiff on March 22nd, he scored 3 goals and had 1 assist in our final 8 league matches.  In the previous 25 matches, he had 28 goals and 12 assists, he is clearly burnt out and an extended rest will do him wonders.

His absence allows others to get more playing time, specifically Emre Can, probably Rickie Lambert, and possibly Samed Yeşil & Jerome Sinclair.  Though I believe Rodgers brought Can in to eventually be our first choice DM, he can play box-to-box just as effectively.  I for one can't wait to see how he, Gerrard, Hendo, and Lucas are played and interact. I also think Yeşil and Sinclair deserve decent chances to show us what they can offer, probably just in cup ties though.  What I don't wish is for Borini to get more pitch time.

Everybody stay calm, we still have Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho, and hopefully, Suso.  The latter might now benefit the most from Suarez' absence and I hope this convinces Rodgers to let him stay and play.  What worries me about Sturridge is that he will get burnt out as well, but if BR knows what's best for him, he'll let our number 15 stay home from all the off-season promotional tours and rest up until the season starts.  If we truly added Sanchez then we'll have even less issue with player wear.  If we add Shaqiri, we won't miss a beat.

Finally, we are now no longer one of the favorites to win the league, which is not necessarily a bad thing.  Pressure's off, no one thinks we have a chance, much like last season.  If we can come out and be competitive until Suarez' return, we'll be in great position to win the league.  I have a feeling if Suarez is still around, he's gonna come out on fire and give everyone else a rest as he wins a few fixtures by himself.  He's done it before.

Signing Divock Origi is a waste of everyone's time

There are recent reports that we may be after 19-year-old Belgian and World Cup darling, Divock Origi, but I highly doubt it.  There is absolutely no reason to add him to the squad and no logic for him to join.  I'm not saying he isn't good enough, but why sign a 19-year-old who will be our fourth striker (with or without Suarez, we will sign a top replacement if needs be). He will get little playing time, which could hamper his development, and he'll probably be unhappy spending time on the reserves or loaned out to other sides.  It makes no sense to either party.

Furthermore, there's nothing in his statistical output that separates him from what we already have at the club.  Here are his numbers from last season for Lille along with last season's production of fellow 19-year-old Sterling and the player Origi should long to emulate, Daniel Sturridge:

	Origi	Sterling	Sturridge
age	19	19	24
app (sub)	12(18)	24(9)	26(3)
mins	1286	2220	2267
goals	5	9	21
assists	0	5	7
chances	18	51	29
npg90	0.35	0.36	0.83
gcp90	0.35	0.57	1.1
ccp90	1.3	2.06	1.2
pass %	79.1	81.7	79.3
bp %	54.2	46.8	53.4
sacc %	54.2	48.9	42.4
shot %	20.8	20	21.2
TTI90	12.2	12.1	11

First and foremost, Origi primarily starts up front and covers the left side of the pitch.  Overall his numbers are eerily similar to Sterling with two exceptions, chances created and back pass percentage.  Sterling creates nearly a chance more per 90 and passes towards his own goal much less.  

The only thing separating him and Sturridge is goal-scoring rate, which is kind of important when you're a forward.  Their shooting rate is similar, though Origi has the superior shooting accuracy percentage, which tells me he tends to take bad shots and/or fails to challenge the keeper most of the time.

The bottom line is Origi is not what we need and he's not dynamic enough to justify bringing him in for what will probably be a speculative price.  Let him prove himself elsewhere for 4-5 seasons and when Sturridge starts to go in decline then try to sign him.  Right now he's just the victim of the World Cup hype train.

And then there's Marcelo...

I've been through nearly every left back out there that has been linked with Liverpool except Real Madrid's Marcelo.  I'm not sure how much they would want for him, but I would assume they wouldn't take less than £22m.  Personally, I think he's overrated, let's see if I'm right:

	Marcelo	Moreno	Rodriguez	Shaw
age	26	22*	21	19
app(subs)	24(4)	27(2)	34	35
mins	2177	2414	3060	2990
goals	1	3	5	0
assist	6	0	9	1
chances	44	19	78	33
npgp90	0.04	0.11	0.09	0
gcp90	0.29	0.11	0.41	0.03
ccp90	1.8	0.71	2.3	0.99
pass%	85.1	78.9	80.5	79
bp%	41.6	36.5	44.6	41.6
sacc%	25	17	55.3	41.7
shot%	4	13	13.2	0
tp90	2.9	1.9	3.1	2.2
tack %	57.9	39.6	57.7	58.7
intp90	1.4	2.7	1.9	1.1
clrp90	1.7	1.6	2.8	3.7
dribpp90	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.7
bsp90	0.08	0.3	0.4	0.1
adwp90	0.7	1	3.1	1.8
adwon%	41	50	56.2	56.5
TTI90	10.2	8.5	11.1	11.6

The Brazilian ties for last in overall ranking with Luke Shaw at 2.75, second is Moreno at 2.63, and coming out on top with a score of 1.75 is Ricardo Rodriguez.  Clearly we will have to over pay for Marcelo if his contribution is as equal to Shaw and the latter is 7 years his junior.

The only thing Marcelo does really well is pass the ball and he's a decent tackler, but he was either last or second to last in all other defensive categories.  He is especially poor when it comes to aerial duels, not only did he have the lowest per 90, but also the lowest success percentage.

Once again Rodriguez shows how he is the business, I will be shocked if he starts next season in a Wolfsburg shirt.  The only way Rodgers should even consider bringing in Marcelo is at discount of say £10m, but I doubt that'll happen.