'Forgotten' French striker may be able to fill Remy void

Kevin Gameiro, as it would seem, has had a career of ups-and-downs, but the truth is, he's been consistently productive.  When the French striker transferred from Lorient to PSG in the summer of 2011, he gave up a starting spot to be a squad player, which is admirable and earned him a Ligue 1 title, but also stunted his development.  At 23, he was coming off his most productive season: 22 goals, 0.70 goals created per 90 minutes, and 1.57 chances created per 90 minutes.

His first season in Paris, could probably be labeled a 'failure'. He posted the second lowest non-penalty goals created of that point in his career and lowest since at 0.40 per 90 minutes and his career low of -0.21 goals on pitch difference.  He showed he wasn't ready to be the starting striker on a league contender and Zlatan Ibrahimović was brought in to take over that spot.  Despite being relegated to the bench, Gameiro got better and put up impressive numbers for what little time he saw the pitch.

In the 2012-13 season, Gameiro became a super-sub, producing much of the best per 90 and percentage stats of his career:

npg90	gc90	gc90	pass%	cr%	sacc%	gopd
0.82	0.92	0.92	84.9	30.8	65.52	0.72

A mutual parting, found him in Sevilla, partnered with the likes of Carlos Bacca, Jose Antonio Reyes, Ivan Ratikic, and Vitolo.  Last season, his first with the Andalusian club, he appeared to return to his all-round attacking form that he seemed to lose at PSG.  He posted nearly as many chances created in one season than he did in two at the French club (28 to 30) and his overall stats improved, including a career low in turnovers:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.62	0.14	0.86	1.33	0.107	78.22%	53.70%	24.07%	10.24

Gameiro showed he could do what he did in his limited final season in Paris, for a whole season in Spain.  He is coming into his prime, just turning 27 and finally looks ready to be a major contributor for a contender.  He may not have the ability of a Suarez, but he's certainly better than an Antoine Griezmann. Here are his stats from last year:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.54	0.1	0.64	1.15	8.7	77.20%	47.70%	14.40%	10.9

Gameiro bettered him in every single stat and Griezmann arguably had a better supporting side.

The 'dream' signings to forget Loic Remy

Now that the Remy deal is off, Rodgers should be back in the market for another striker unless Divock Origi doesn't go back to Lille on loan, but I'm sure that was a non-negotiable part of the deal.  There are plenty of options out there, though the more experienced may be harder to convince to leave their current clubs and the younger ones are risks due to lack of experience.  Then you have the older, temporary solution, who hardly ever make mistakes, but don't always adapt well and produce.

Two of these 'dream' signings would be either Pedro or José María Callejón. The chances of Rodriguez leaving Barcelona are little to none, he would have to be 'sold' into coming to Liverpool, it would take more than just money to convince him and who says Barca would let him leave? It really depends on whether he is willing to play fourth fiddle to Messi, Neymar, and Suarez, when the Uruguayan becomes eligible, or be a starter and get all the minutes he wants at Liverpool.  His numbers the past five seasons in La Liga and in Europe are not mind-blowing, but far from shabby:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.44	0.22	0.67	1.33	16.2	88.4	48.6	20.6	10.98

Callejón may be easier to convince to leave Napoli.  Rafa may even take a player or two in exchange for the Spaniard, who had a breakout season last year, his first in Italy.  His stats from the last five seasons of La Liga, Serie A, and European competitions are comparable to Pedro, though less impressive:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
0.31	0.17	0.48	1.39	12.1	81.6	42.5	12.9	11.18

I highly doubt we could pry either one of these players from their respective clubs, but it wouldn't hurt to inquire.  Barcelona are interested in Agger and though I'd rather we hang on to the Dane, if it means getting Pedro, it'd be hard to pass up.

Two others come to mind and I've written about both before.  Seydou Doumbia has been tearing up the Russian Premier League and the Swiss Super League for years now.  You can read more about his amazing production here. 

I've briefly mentioned the torrid scoring rate of 21-year-old Jesé Rodríguez.  The Real Madrid forward is off to a blistering start in his career and the sky seems the limit.  His influence on his club is beyond just numbers though, in the 18 matches he featured last season, Real earned 47 pts, in the 20 he did not, they only managed 40.  He is coming off injury though, which is a worry.  Before so, he posted these ridiculous numbers:

gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
1.3	1.94	30.7	83.2	52.40	52.40	23.80	10.90	1.24

Oh yeah, then there's Marco Reus.

Next I'll write about some lesser known, less expensive, but certainly less sexier picks like Nolito, Kevin Gameiro, and Max Kruse.

The next Liverpool 'superstar'?

Sheyi Ojo shows a lot of promise, but the 17-year-old English teen of Nigerian descent has yet to play a minute for the first team.  Among his peers though, he's quite impressive, more so than our own Welsh wizard, Harry Wilson.  He's got excellent pace, a keen eye for passing, and is a deadly finisher.  His demeanor is what impresses me the most, he seems so relaxed and natural on the pitch and sometimes it appears things just go his way.

He's been at Liverpool for three years since signing from MK Dons for around £2m.  He has also featured for the EnglandU17 squad.  Earlier today he scored a brace in a U20 friendly against Club Brugges in Holland. Here's an impressive video of him: 



Ojo is a man-beast who makes his opponents look like pub squaders.  His pace is ridiculous.  I would love to see him loaned out to a League One side, just to see what he can do.  Save injury, the future is bright.

It's Andy Carroll all over again!

Adam Lallana will miss the start of the season due to injury suffered in training today.  The thing I'm most disappointed about is having to wait to prove how bad of a buy he was, £25m for a player probably not worth 10.  He doesn't even have to hit the pitch before any support for his purchase can be dismantled.

Reason 1: 'He creates goals.'

True, but not as much as teammates Steven Davis, James Ward-Prowse, nor Gaston Ramirez.  Ward-Prowse at £25m is somewhat justifiable given his age and potential.  He'll probably be better than Lallana in three years, when he turns 22.  Lallana is 26, if you were wondering.

Reason 2: 'He's a great passer.'

No, actually he's not.  He posted an 84.7% passing rate last year and an 80.7% passer rating the year before, respectable, yes, but not when you consider his pass back percentage to be 50.3% and 52.4% respectively.  He's great at passing backward, that's about it.

Reason 3: 'He's English.'

Oh yes, of course, he is made of that special pedigree that once 'ruled the world'.  Lallana is such an 'English' last name, isn't it?  And let's get something straight, he's 'White English', because a player of any different skin color and posts the same numbers, regardless of his country of origin, is dreadfully mediocre.

Reason 4: 'He's a model.'

Where do I begin here? A model what, exactly? Just another check against the underlying racism of top-flight football and the market-driven money that runs it. Yes, he's a looker, quite possibly his best tribute, though not Justin Timberlake hawt, which I personally fancy.

Lallana is nothing special and he'll disappear under waves of mediocrity once he starts to see the pitch in a Liverpool kit, but not before he plays second fiddle to Beckham and trumps up his modeling career, of course.

This reminds of me of another situation, let me see... White, overpaid, Englishman... oh, yes, Andy Carroll! How could I forget quite possibly the worst bit of business in Liverpool history.  Dalglish has Suarez to thank for saving his arse though, had he not bought the Uruguayan, King Kenny might have been looked upon with more senile light.  Oh there I go again, mentioning that name... he's not supposed to participate in footballing activities which apparently includes everything on the internet involving a ball and feet.

Shameful Prem erases all Suarez history

The pathetic Premier League thinks they can re-write history.  I didn't realize they did this until I was perusing around their site and was looking for Suarez on the goal-scoring table (click on pics to enlarge),...

..the leading assists table,...

...and apparently didn't play for Liverpool last season....

...nor the season before.

You also get nothing when you search.

What's the point?  Are football fans in general going to just forget Suarez played in the Prem?

Steven Gerrard, King of the APEs

Attacking Possession Efficiency that is.  I haven't been posting much lately because I've been working on a lot of stats projects.  One of these is APE.  APE measures how efficient a player is in possession.  It takes in account all positive results from possession and gives relative value to these results and then divides this number by total individual possessions.  A goal is given four times the value of a completed pass and shot on goal, while an assist is given double value to a chance created.  Here is Liverpool's top ten APE from last season (the team APE was 0.43563):

Gerrard	0.46478
Henderson	0.46115
Skrtel	0.45314
Coutinho	0.45302
Suarez	0.45268
Johnson	0.44870
Lucas	0.44444
Sterling	0.43388
Sakho	0.42635
Sturridge	0.42570

Skrtel was more efficient than Suarez? Yes, because he did more with less possession and turned over the ball much less, which is essentially what this stat measures.

I also created a Positive Possession Result Quality, which gives value to the quality of positive result compared to overall 'stripped-down' results. The top ten PPRQ for Liverpool last year (the team average was 0.52788):

Suarez	0.62686
Sturridge	0.60947
Sterling	0.56348
Coutinho	0.54459
Gerrard	0.53748
Henderson	0.52640
Allen	0.51978
Johnson	0.51628
Flanagan	0.51585
Skrtel	0.51147

This basically means that Suarez produced a higher quality result (goal or assist) 62.686% of the time, that shouldn't be much a surprise.  

Mile Jedinak: A defensive solution on the cheap

With the Lovren deal apparently on the rocks, Caulker off the table, and little other prospects in the wind, how about an inexpensive, Premiership-proven alternative, albeit temporary? What about Mile Jedinak?  Yes, I'm aware he is a defensive midfielder, but versatility only adds to his intrigue.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Australian international had quite an impressive season last year for Crystal Palace.  One could write a book about the Eagles' wild ride of a 2013-14 campaign, from dead last on 7 points in week 13 to finishing 11th on 45, and we don't have to mention the 9 minutes of chaos at Selhurst Park that all but ended Liverpool's title hopes.  How Palace easily survived by scoring a mere 33 goals is a minor miracle to say the least and a massive tribute to a defence lead by Jedinak.

Crystal Palace didn't play 'smart' defence, they played a brutal-style that relied on individual effort.  Unfortunately that will never win you a league title since it is too draining on the players, a possession and passing-based defence will always win there, but it's admirable to say the least.  Per league ranking last season, the London club was first in the Prem in clearances, interceptions, and least costly defensive errors, second in tackles and least overall defensive errors, fifth in successful tackle percentage, and 8th in blocked shots. Their average ranking in those categories was 2.86, the next closest was Hull at 6.86.

Jedinak was a beast, posting impressive numbers in defensive areas as well as in aerial duels (league averages in blue below):

adw90	adw%	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	bs90
4.49	70.8	3.57	53.4	3.73	3.76	0.46
1.61	50	1.75	46.9	1.25	3.04	0.30

His biggest weakness is his passing, but in his defence, he did play for the worst passing side in the EPL last season.  His 71.9% passing rate was still slightly better than his team's 71.1% and he did complete 121 of 206 long balls for a 58.7% rate.  As is the norm, his passing would improve with more skilled teammates. He also doesn't have blinding pace, which is why his future is better suited at centre back.

A lot comes in to play when considering Jedinak: age, fee, and would he want to come?  He would be losing playing time, but he would get a chance at Champions League football.  Also he would have the opportunity to play for one of the bigger clubs on Merseyside (that's called sarcasm).  If Pulis would regretfully let him go for £5m, Rodgers would be crazy not to jump at it.  Jedinak is an excellent defender, which will translate well at either defensive midfielder or centre back for at least 3-4 seasons.

The players who must prove their worth this season

Mignolet & Reina?
No one seems sure as to whether Rodgers will give Reina a chance to compete for the starting job this season or is just waiting for and/or weighing the best offer for the soon-to-be 32-year-old.  The Spanish International made the trip across the pond as part of the squad for the US tour, but so did Borini.  I think he should be able to stay and fight for the top spot, there's nothing more healthy than a little competition and after last year, Mignolet should know his spot is far from safe.

The 26-year-old Belgian was fifth worst in giving up 50 goals last season and his 93% cross claim percentage was 28th in the league.  The demeanor of Mignolet was what worried me most, he didn't seem too concerned with taking control on defence and a seeming lack of communication between him and his defenders cost us a few goals last year, possibly the league as well.  Personally, if he doesn't show the form that lead us to buy him for £9m from Sunderland last summer, I say start looking for his replacement.

Sakho
The more and more I looked into Sakho's performance last season, the more discouraged I became.  Whenever he was on the pitch, our defence was as fragile as a United fan's confidence, one remote slight and it would collapse.  The biggest piece of the puzzle is what the 24-year-old French centre back did to warrant a -0.52 goals on pitch difference, by far the worst among club regulars.  His statistical output otherwise was good to excellent (92.5% passing success rate), which leaves unquantifiable solutions such as positioning and communication.  No matter what, if he continues the path he is on, which may have been due to game-style adjustment, he shouldn't be in a Liverpool kit by the end of next summer.

Martin Kelly & Glen Johnson
Oh Martin Kelly, too many injuries, too little time, what could have been? And now the clock nears the stroke of your LFC career end.  It's too bad the freshly-turned 24-year-old has not been able to put together a decent amount of appearances since his first team debut in 2009.  He needs a huge season to justify him staying even though his contract is until summer 2017.  I've always thought he had the talent, maybe he simply lacks the physicality to survive English top flight football.

Despite reports of his imminent demise, Glen Johnson did the same things at the same rate he's been doing for the past four years or so.  He set a career high in successful pass percentage at 84.1%, he still posted a 1.11 chance created per 90, and was only dribbled past by 0.82 per 90, his career average is 0.73.  We'll probably never see the kind of season he had when he was 25, but it's a contract season for the soon-to-be 30-year-old, so we should him at his possible best.

Some other players come to mind, but the aforementioned are the most crucial.  If Jose Enrique returns to his form of the previous year and avoids injury, he'll be fine.  Joe Allen will probably stay as long as he wants to be a bit part of a much bigger picture, ditto for Lucas, though the Brazilian, if he is still around come September, will certainly see more pitch time than the Welshman.  It should be business as usual for all else.

Javi Manquillo would be a project not a resolution

Javier Manquillo doesn't show much promise as a full back, at least not going forward.  In his few appearances in La Liga and Europe the last two seasons, The 20-year-old Atletico Madrid defender has shown to be a less-than mediocre passer, especially dreadful at specialization, and has a hard time holding on to the ball.  His career passing success average is 75.8%, nearly four points lower than the 79.6% of players in all competitions combined.  He has connected on just 1 of 24 career cross attempts, has never even attempted a throughball, and has a 30% conversion rate for long balls.  Glen Johnson, coming off a poor year by most accounts, still posted better numbers, succeeding on 5 of 51 crosses, 54.2% long balls, and was 1 for 3 on throughballs.

Manquillo can defend though.  Here are his career defence stats from Spain and Europe compared to Johnson's and Flanagan's from last season:

player	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	drby90	bs90
Manquillo	3.30	60.9	2.44	3.06	0.12	0.49
Johnson	2.29	55.9	1.79	2.54	0.82	0.29
Flanagan	3.8	45.7	1.9	3.6	1.9	0.2

Manquillo posted better all-round numbers than both of them, his tackle rate, dribble-busting ability, and shot-blocking capability are particularly outstanding.  He is also excellent in the air.  His career aerial duels success percentage is 78.9%, that's better than any LFC player last season as Skrtel was best at 70.1%.  These attributes are better-suited for a centre back, not a right back.  So if Rodgers was interested in the Spaniard to change his position, it's actually not a bad idea, but it seems far-fetched.  We don't need projects, we need immediate contributors and even spending £6m for Manquillo doesn't make much sense.

Which Real Madrid young gun would you prefer?

Isco
Isco's strength is passing, whether it be long crosses, long balls, through balls, or creating chances, he is a master.  He's also pretty accurate at shooting.  His biggest fault is that his teammates are really poor shots or he puts them in impossible-to-score positions, which is why is chance created value is mediocre. Here are his stats from last season pertaining to those attributes:

ccv	cc90	pass%	bp%	cr%	lb%	tb%	sacc%	shot%
8.5	3.21	88.1	42	32.2	81.8	53.3	36.4	18.2

Illarramendi
Illarramendi is a solid defensive midfielder who is also a great passer.  He is especially deadly accurate on long balls, completing 97 of 108 last season.  His stats from last season are pretty good all around, showing no signs of a significant weakness.

gc90	cc90	pass%	bp%	lb%	tp90	t%	intp90
0.19	1.35	88.9	40.1	89.8	4.19	42.1	2.45

Jesé
If Jesé can continue his torrid goal-creating pace of last season with hopefully a lot more pitch time, he'll easily become the next megastar at Real.  His influence on his club is beyond just numbers though, in the 18 matches he featured last season, Real earned 47 pts, in the 20 he did not, they only managed 40.  Had he not torn his anterior cruciate ligament, they might have won the league as well.  His stats from last year are just plain ridiculous:

gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
1.34	1.94	30.7	83.2	52.4	52.4	23.8	10.9	1.24

A 30.7 chance created value and a 1.24 goals on pitch difference? Mental.

Which Real Madrid young gun would you prefer?
	Isco
	Illarramendi
	Jesé
pollcode.com free polls

James Milner: A sad waste of talent and probably now a waste of funds

Following his break-out season at Aston Villa in 2009-10, James Milner seemed destined to do great things, then he signed with Man City.  Instead of developing into a top player for Villa and possibly becoming captain of the Brum club, he has settled for a secondary role at City where he finds himself starting on the bench in 48.9% (68 of 139) of matches he is available and of those, he didn't even make the pitch in 35.2% (24 of 68).

He has won two league titles, an FA Cup, and a League Cup at City though, and has shown what it means to be a true team player, even at the expense of his own evolution. It's admirable in some ways, but I doubt Milner envisioned being a squad player when he originally signed with Man City.  His last season with Villa, at the age of 24, he was finally coming into his own:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
7	12	69	0.11	0.54	1.96	0.34
pass%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrp90	sacc%	shot%
75.6	58.2	35.7	32.6	0.71	34.8	10.6
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	adw90	adw%
1.8	0.91	0.97	0.4	2.64	0.43	28.8
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
17.4	16.9	1.39	1.05	0.34	0.34	0

First, the bad, his 16.9 true turnover index per 90 minutes played is unimpressive to say the least.  He has improved since joining City, reaching a career best of 10.1 in 2011-12 and a 11.4 rate last season, that's on par with Henderson (9.7), Gerrard (10.9), Coutinho (11), and Sterling (12.1). Also, for a player who is characterized as 'strong' when it comes to aerial duels, his won per 90 of 0.43 at a 28.8% success rate is well below the league average of 1.46 at 50%.

His 12 assists that season was third best in the league and his chance created value of 17.4 was well above the league average of 9.2. While normally a goals on pitch difference of 0 is nothing to brag about, in his case it shows that he WAS the team.  Despite losing Gareth Barry the summer prior, Villa still improved their point totals and goal difference from the previous season, and the season after Milner joined City, the Villans plummeted to 9th place, a -24 goal difference, and accumulated 16 less points.

For Liverpool to consider a transfer for the 28-year-old, a what-have-you-done-lately approach is what matters.  Here are his stats from last season where he made only 12 starts, 19 sub-ins, for a total of 1375 minutes:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
1	3	29	0.07	0.26	1.9	0.2
pass%	bp%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrbp90	sdrb%	sacc%	shot%
84	46.4	60	66.6	19.1	1.18	43.9	24	4
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.65	1.44	1.11	0.06	2.03	50.9	1.05	35.6
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
10.3	11.4	2.22	1.24	0.98	1.71	-0.73

A regression to say the least, especially considering the quality of his teammates.  His passing has improved, as has his turnover rate, but not much else, and his goals on pitch difference is alarming.  For a midfielder known for playing solid defence, it certainly doesn't look like he's a much of a factor in preventing opponents from scoring.

Milner could have been a legend at Villa, but instead he rots away on the City bench with opportunities becoming more scarce as younger, more creative options surround him and his club have all the funds in the world to go after more if needs be.  The problem is he'll find himself in a similar situation if Liverpool acquire him.  His versatility does play into it a little since he can cover for Glen Johnson at RB, but he won't be much of an improvement.  It really comes down to how cheap City will let him go, anything more than £8m has to be a deal-breaker.

Loic Remy for £8m & Borini for £14m. The apocalypse is upon us.

We have apparently sealed the deal to gain a striker with an amazing goals on pitch difference and let go of one who does not.  I've written about what Loic Remy did for Newcastle last season, when he was on the pitch, they were a much better side.  In fact, had he played all 38 matches for the Magpies, they could have possibly finished with 66 points and ahead of Man United.  Instead, they finished 10th with just 49.

How we got him for £6m less than we sold Borini is beyond me.  Borini does not have the pace to be a star in the Prem.  Sunderland may be the perfect fit for him as their 'grind it out' style better suits his game.  I understand he is still 'young' by many standards, but even at 23, he's had his chance to prove he can be of value to a 'big' club like Liverpool.  If he was smart, he'd go back to Italy, where 'technique' is favored over pace.  That's called sarcasm, Serie A is far from technically superior to the Prem and uses that excuse to make up for it's home grown snail's pace.

If the rumours are true and we've added Remy, that makes three solid adds and one which, at best, will go done as 'meh'.  If Lambert will just let the game come to him like he did at Southampton, he'll be a great contribution, but if he tries to force things, he won't see the pitch much and will be gone after this season. He's not the one I'm referring to as 'meh' though, if Loic Remy is worth only £8m, Lallana should have come on a free.  Speaking of additions, Can was apparently injured today in our 2-1 win over Preston North End, I really hope he it's just a niggling and he'll be okay, we need him to compete for minutes pronto.

Speaking of that match, Jordon Ibe was apparently quite impressive.  I didn't get to watch it due to other obligations, but I did get to see some of the highlights.  This first video shows Ibe finding Suso right outside the box, then the Spaniard does his magic with a fine curler.  The second video shows Ibe hooking up Kristoph Peterson for his second goal of the pre-season.  Will Rodgers take the latter on the tour of the US now?  It looks like he'll have an open spot now that Borini is gone.