LFC 2, Southampton 1: Great? No. Good? Not really. Lucky? Probably.

When I wrote my brief analysis yesterday on Man U's loss to Swansea at Old Trafford... that'll never get old... I mentioned that they dominated possession, had outstanding passing percentages, took three times as many shots, and won two-thirds of their aerial duels, which is somewhat similar to Liverpool's performance today save shots.  The Reds were less dominate on possession though at only 56% compared to Mangoloid U's 60%.  Liverpool completed 86% of their passes, which goes without saying is excellent, and won 62% of aerial battles.  The big difference was shots.

Both Southampton and LFC took 12 shots, but the south coast side had 6 on target while Liverpool had one less.  If we allow 6 shots on target every match, we will be very fortunate to make the top 7, never mind top four or competing for the league.  Mignolet put in an outstanding performance today making some terrific saves.  With Reina gone, I just hope there aren't any repercussions from him slamming into the post on that save of Ward-Prowse's forever lobbing attempt on goal.  Brad Jones is capable, but I doubt he would have put in an equal performance.

Let's get the negative out of the way first so we can look into the magic mirror, hold hands, and color unicorns.  Johnson was a waste of space and honestly we would have done better with ten men.  He turned over the ball nearly half the times he touched it, his two shots had a better chance of hitting the hot dog man than finding the back of the net, and he passed the ball backward like he was challenging time travel.  Maybe he was trying to go back to three years ago when he wasn't as dreadful. Moreno should be ready to go next match, but if not, where's Enrique?

Speaking of fecal matter, Lucas and Allen were particularly foul, especially as the match wore on.  It was as if Lucas had just put on Allen's kit and continued his downward spiral.  The Brazilian hasn't played that poorly in a couple of seasons, maybe it was just part of his 'sell me to Napoli so I can be with me Uncle Benitez' plan.  I guess Rodgers felt Can wasn't ready to make his EPL debut, I don't see how he could do any worse than those two though.  Turnovers, indecisiveness on the ball, passing to Southampton players on crucial possessions... those aren't positive attributes for players who are supposed to be 'holding midfielders'.

Also, what happened to our defence? What happened to our field general and drill sergeant, Lovren?  It's not as if he hasn't played in the Premier League before.  Maybe he just felt sentimental towards his old club, hopefully that was the case, hopefully it's not a disease that defenders get now when they put on the LFC kit, and hopefully it has nothing to do with Rodgers' tactics.  If it's the latter, we are screwed, let'em rage, BR.  The bottom line is, our defence has to communicate better, at times they looked like a bunch of mud-wrestling Helen Kellers out there.

Finally, Coutinho had a poor match.  Every time he gained possession, he was corralled by the Saints defence and for the most part, failed to dribble or pass his way out of it.  He'd better get used to it though, he's got a target as big as Hiroshima on his back and if pressuring him takes him out of the equation, it's going to be awfully easy for opposing defences to make him a non-factor.  If there's one thing that he needs to understand is that it's okay for him to pass backward once in a while, especially when he has two or three defenders around him.  His passing today clearly suffered from trying to force things, his 76% completion rate was worst among Liverpool outfield players.

Our best players were Sterling and Gerrard with Henderson coming in third, though the latter's passing requires improvement.  Sterling should probably get man of the match just on being responsible for both goals, but Gerrard, as always, played his heart out with reckless abandon.  Our captain was all over the place defensively, and thankfully so since Lovren and Skrtel had a few momentary lapses of concentration, but the most impressive part of Gerrard's performance was his passing.  He completed 89% overall and was 10 of 13 on long passes, even though most were wasted.  Sturridge looked a little bit shaky there in the beginning and never really found his form, which is scary, but he'll come around.

Speaking of Sturridge, he once again came through with the match-winning goal.  The first match of the season and he already has a 'crucial' goal, something he did seven times last season.  And since we are on the subject, I really wish pundits and commentators would get a clue, Suarez was not as valuable as he seemed.  Yes, he scored goals, but most were meaningless, he scored exactly ZERO goals that broke a scoring draw, won, or drew a match for Liverpool last season.  Shut your ignorant pie holes, please.

Southampton deserves some credit as they were quite impressive.  They looked far from a relegation contending side, but will be a mid-table club, possibly finishing as high as seventh.  Tadić and Ward-Prowse were brilliant and I wrote prior to the match, if Clyne gets involved on attack, we could be in trouble.  Well, guess what? He did and he equalized a vivid passing display by the Saints.  In the end, Liverpool were lucky to get all three points, pulling this one off by the skin of their teeth.  We've got to improve defensively though because a master passer like Fabregas, Silva, or Ozil will tear us to pieces if we don't.

The return of Robo-Skrtel

Liverpool 2, Southampton 1: The match in stats
- Martin Skrtel had 20 clearances.  He led Liverpool and the league last season with 11.5 per 90 minutes and is well on his way to doing so again this season.  Lovren was second with 11 and Manquillo was third with 5.

- Skrtel also led the side in touches with 111, Manquillo was second with 109, and Lovren third with 86.

- Skrtel won the most aerial duels as well with 7 while Lovren was second with 6.

- Lovren led all players with an absolutely ridiculous passing rate of 96%, Skrtel was 2nd at 91%, and Gerrard third at 89%.

- Manquillo led the side with 6 tackles, Jordan Henderson was 2nd with 3.

- Gerrard completed 10 of 13 of long balls.  He lead all outfield Prem players last year with 257.

- Daniel Sturridge attempted 20 passes the entire match, Joe Allen attempted that many in 31 minutes.  Sturridge, a career 80% passer, completed 17 while Allen, a career 90% passer, completed 16.

- Raheem Sterling dribbled past 5 opponents, but was dispossessed 6 times.

-Rickie Lambert had more tackles, one, than Glen Johnson and Lucas Leiva combined.

- Every starter had at least one interception except Sturridge.  Lovren and Manquillo led the team with 4 a piece.

- No Liverpool player committed more than a single foul.  Thank you, Clattenburger.

- One of Glenn Johnson's shots landed in a rubbish bin, the other knocked an ice cream cone out of a six-year-old girl's hand.

- Lucas had a shot on target, created a chance, and dribbled past an opponent.  Either he passed a few bills to the statistician before the match or it's his Uncle Joenihno recording the numbers.

- The only other player to do as Lucas did above was Raheem Sterling, he had 3 shots on target and 2 key passes though.

The most dangerous player for Southampton at Anfield

Nathaniel Clyne gets no respect.  The 23-year-old right back put up some solid attacking numbers last season and was more of a catalyst in the opponent's third than Luke Shaw or any other Saints defender.  If he is allowed to be a factor tomorrow, it will increase Southampton's chances of scoring and even winning exponentially.  They will probably push forward in limited numbers as not to suffer an 'easy' goal on the counter and an extra player to stretch the Liverpool defence would be very beneficial in that regard.

Here is the offensive output for Clyne last season:

ap90	cc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	lb90	lb%	tti90	gopd
0.19	0.19	0.58	0.143	0.816	0.41	1.26	0.542	10.73	0.42

The most impressive stat is his goals on pitch difference.  Lovren, Shaw, and especially Chambers paled in comparison.  Our new centre back posted an acceptable -0.05, Shaw was a little bit better with a 0.03, but Chambers was horrendous with a -0.59, a full goal difference than Clyne.  Did Arsenal buy the wrong right back?  I think so.

Despite the endless jokes the south coast club has endured this summer, Southampton is not without quality.  Even with Jay Rodriguez out due to injury, they will be a formidable attacking force.  The key will be how well their midfield interacts.  Most likely, Morgan Schniederlin (or Jack Cork) and Victor Wanyama will start as defensive midfielders with Gaston Ramirez, Dušan Tadić, Steven Davis, and James-Ward Prowse in front of them.  Not to be too cliché, but the Saints will look to hold on to the ball as long as possible, forcing Liverpool to come at them and hoping the Merseysiders will make a mistake.

Unfortunately for them, it will leave new boy Graziano Pellè alone at the top.  I don't expect much from the Italian striker, bar a lot of frustration, but getting him the ball in open space will put the skills of Tadić & company to test.  If they can gain any momentum, expect Nathaniel Clyne and/or Ryan Bertrand to 'bomb' forward and help out on the attacking end.  It would be 'suicidal' to do so often though as Liverpool's counter is quick and deadly.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say Liverpool 2-1 with goals from Coutinho, Skrtel, and Shane Long.

Liverpool 4 Borussia Dortmund 0: 5 things learnt

1. Dejan Lovren is the new Boss.  And a much needed one.  He took command of the defence and dared Borussia to attempt attack.  He is what we needed last season when Skrtel and Sakho doted around the field masquerading as defenders who really wanted to just score goals.  That's a bit harsh, but it's nice to be reminded what a centre back who is actually committed to playing defence looks like.  He reminds me of Carra except more athletic.

2. Coutinho is becoming Gerrardinho.  Is it just me or were some of those passes/flicks from the Brazilian very Gerrard-esque?  He's definitely been paying attention to his captain's methods of ball conveyance.  How he did not get chosen for his country for the World Cup is beyond me, but I'm glad he didn't get picked.  The time off probably did him some good.

3. Manquillo is probably already better than Glen Johnson.  No need to beat a dead horse, but me Uncle Joe is probably better than Glen Johnson.  I can't say I was impressed with Manquillo's performance even given the circumstance of just joining the club a couple of days ago, but at least he didn't turn over the ball every time he touched it.

4. We didn't need Gerrard to dictate attack.  And that is huge.  The less our captain has do on the attacking end of the pitch, the better we will be as a side.  If Sterling, Sturridge, Hendo, and Coutinho can dissect defences without the help of Stevie-G, he can concentrate on controlling the middle-third.  I don't think he'll ever be completely cut out of the picture, which nobody wants, but he's also not 26 anymore.  He has plenty of long passes and through balls in store. Though the only stat that should matter to him at this point in his career is league titles. Glory over goals.

5. Aubameyang was playing? The 25-year-old Gabonese striker was invisible today at Anfield.  He scored 13 goals in 26 league matches after coming over from AS Saint Etienne.  In France, he was finally coming into his own, scoring 35 goals in his last two seasons there.  I thought he might be a player worth looking at, before today, I'd pass.  It may have been a friendly, but he was inexistent today and failed to make even the slightest impact.

Steven Gerrard, King of the APEs

Attacking Possession Efficiency that is.  I haven't been posting much lately because I've been working on a lot of stats projects.  One of these is APE.  APE measures how efficient a player is in possession.  It takes in account all positive results from possession and gives relative value to these results and then divides this number by total individual possessions.  A goal is given four times the value of a completed pass and shot on goal, while an assist is given double value to a chance created.  Here is Liverpool's top ten APE from last season (the team APE was 0.43563):

Gerrard	0.46478
Henderson	0.46115
Skrtel	0.45314
Coutinho	0.45302
Suarez	0.45268
Johnson	0.44870
Lucas	0.44444
Sterling	0.43388
Sakho	0.42635
Sturridge	0.42570

Skrtel was more efficient than Suarez? Yes, because he did more with less possession and turned over the ball much less, which is essentially what this stat measures.

I also created a Positive Possession Result Quality, which gives value to the quality of positive result compared to overall 'stripped-down' results. The top ten PPRQ for Liverpool last year (the team average was 0.52788):

Suarez	0.62686
Sturridge	0.60947
Sterling	0.56348
Coutinho	0.54459
Gerrard	0.53748
Henderson	0.52640
Allen	0.51978
Johnson	0.51628
Flanagan	0.51585
Skrtel	0.51147

This basically means that Suarez produced a higher quality result (goal or assist) 62.686% of the time, that shouldn't be much a surprise.  

Javi Manquillo would be a project not a resolution

Javier Manquillo doesn't show much promise as a full back, at least not going forward.  In his few appearances in La Liga and Europe the last two seasons, The 20-year-old Atletico Madrid defender has shown to be a less-than mediocre passer, especially dreadful at specialization, and has a hard time holding on to the ball.  His career passing success average is 75.8%, nearly four points lower than the 79.6% of players in all competitions combined.  He has connected on just 1 of 24 career cross attempts, has never even attempted a throughball, and has a 30% conversion rate for long balls.  Glen Johnson, coming off a poor year by most accounts, still posted better numbers, succeeding on 5 of 51 crosses, 54.2% long balls, and was 1 for 3 on throughballs.

Manquillo can defend though.  Here are his career defence stats from Spain and Europe compared to Johnson's and Flanagan's from last season:

player	t90	tk%	int90	clr90	drby90	bs90
Manquillo	3.30	60.9	2.44	3.06	0.12	0.49
Johnson	2.29	55.9	1.79	2.54	0.82	0.29
Flanagan	3.8	45.7	1.9	3.6	1.9	0.2

Manquillo posted better all-round numbers than both of them, his tackle rate, dribble-busting ability, and shot-blocking capability are particularly outstanding.  He is also excellent in the air.  His career aerial duels success percentage is 78.9%, that's better than any LFC player last season as Skrtel was best at 70.1%.  These attributes are better-suited for a centre back, not a right back.  So if Rodgers was interested in the Spaniard to change his position, it's actually not a bad idea, but it seems far-fetched.  We don't need projects, we need immediate contributors and even spending £6m for Manquillo doesn't make much sense.

Steven Caulker doesn't fancy a tackle

It's not that the 22-year-old is poor at tackling, in fact his 63.8 career percentage is admirable, it's just not his style.  The one-time England international has clearly learned the game from former clubmates Ashley Williams and Ledley King.  Neither of those two were much of tacklers either, but both are/were considered capable defenders.  Caulker still has a way to go before he reaches the level of those two, but at least he's on the right path.

npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90	ccv	TTI90
0.09	0.11	0.27	0.03	9.1	8.1
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	intp90	clrp90
83	22.8	31.3	10.5	1.39	8.47
drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.22	1.15	1.22	63.8	2.8	56.2
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
1.12	1.56	-0.44	-0.25	-0.19

Stats definitions can be found here.

Those are his career stats from the last three Premier League seasons.  He spent 2011-12 on loan to Swansea, where he paired with Williams, 2012-13 at Spurs, and in the summer of 2013, Tottenham sold him to Cardiff.  Three years, three different clubs, and next season he'll be at either QPR or Liverpool, but is he worth buying?

The thing about Caulker is that he was a much better player in his season with the Spurs than at either Welsh club.  He set career highs in goals and assists per 90 minutes played, successful passing, tackling, and shot accuracy percentage, true turnover index per 90 minutes played, interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes played in that campaign.  A couple were particularly impressive, his 89.7% successful pass percentage with only a 27.8% back pass percentage is outstanding and his 4.3 true turnover rate is one of the best I've ever seen.  I can only imagine how impressive his numbers would be if he came to Liverpool.

Probably his most commendable career stat is his 0.22 dribbled past per 90 minutes. If his 0.26 drbp90 from last season at relegated Cardiff, which would have been second to only Skrtel among Liverpool centre backs, doesn't impress, his 0.06 drbp90 in his season at Tottenham is mind-blowing.  Again, that is a number  so low, I'm pretty confident I have never seen anything like it.  For perspective, Lovren posted a 0.48 drbp90 last season at Southampton, that would have been worst among Liverpool centre backs last season, even behind the 0.44 put up by 'Ole Man' Toure.

If we can get Caulker for the £8m that QPR apparently bid (and was accepted), by all means we should sign him.  Even £10m is an acceptable amount.  He is right-footed and will give Skrtel a run for his money, not to mention the Slovak and Agger are both 29-years-old and not getting any younger.  If Sakho shows improvement and adapts better to the English game next season, he and Caulker would be a force hard to reckon with for years to come.

Coutinho, Sterling, & Agger all had higher gopds than Suarez last year

The winner of 'goals on pitch difference' for Liverpool last season was Coutinho with Sterling and Agger coming up 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Similar to +/- that is used in basketball, gopd measures the amount of goals a team scored against amount allowed while that player is on the pitch.  Here are the results for relevant LFC players from last season:

	mins	pp90	ga	gap90	gs	gsp90	diff
Coutinho	2323	25.8	37	1.43	78	3.02	1.59
Sterling	2220	24.7	31	1.26	69	2.80	1.54
Agger	1421	15.8	18	1.14	42	2.66	1.52
Suarez	2962	32.9	47	1.43	96	2.92	1.49
Sturridge	2267	25.2	31	1.23	68	2.70	1.47
Johnson	2515	27.9	38	1.36	79	2.83	1.47
Henderson	3129	34.8	42	1.21	93	2.67	1.47
Allen	1443	16.0	21	1.31	44	2.75	1.44
Skrtel	3221	35.8	50	1.40	99	2.77	1.37
Gerrard	2895	32.2	44	1.37	86	2.67	1.30
Flanagan	1890	21.0	38	1.81	63	3.00	1.19
Lucas	1896	21.1	27	1.28	49	2.32	1.04
Toure	1443	16.0	20	1.25	36	2.25	1.00
Sakho	1478	16.4	25	1.52	38	2.32	0.79

The gopd average for Liverpool was 1.33 per match, which does not bode well for Gerrard and anyone else below him on the table.  Flanagan is particularly dreadful being his 3 goal scored per 90 is second highest, but his 1.81 goals allowed is worst.  I'm at a loss for words when it comes to Sakho, maybe he just isn't that good, and if you would have asked me last week if selling Lucas was a good idea, I would have said absolutely not, but now I'm beginning to wonder if he's no longer of much value.

I'm not surprised by any of the players in the top five except for maybe Agger, who we should truly not sell, but Johnson at sixth is perplexing.  I figured he'd be much worse.  Maybe we should hold on to him for a little bit longer.

By the way, of all players who played at least 1000 league minutes last season, Aly Cissokho had the highest goal scored per 90 at 3.05 and highest gopd at 1.73. Go figure.

Gerrard & Sturridge are more important than Suarez

Again and again I'm trying to convince myself that the loss of Suarez won't be that great, well, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  I went through each match last year and broke down goal importance according to whether a point was salvaged or gained (crucial goal) or gave us an advantage (important goal).  I did the same for assists as well.  Then I applied a points system: 3 points for crucial goal or assist and 1 point for important goal or assist.  Here are the results:

	crucial goal	imp goal	crucial asst	imp assist	value
Gerrard	5	4	4	4	35
Sturridge	7	6	1	2	32
Suarez	0	11	1	4	18
Coutinho	2	1	0	2	9
Agger	1	1	1	1	8
Henderson	1	0	0	3	6
Enrique	0	0	1	1	4
Sterling	0	2	0	2	4
Aspas	0	0	1	0	3
Skrtel	0	3	0	0	3
Toure	0	0	0	1	1
Sakho	0	1	0	0	1
Johnson	0	0	0	1	1
Allen	0	1	0	0	1

Not a single goal and only one assist from Suarez was 'crucial' to our title chase last year.  He did score 11 'important' goals though, unfortunately that also means he essentially scored 20 'meaningless' goals or goals that wouldn't have mattered had he scored them or not.

We will be fine if Suarez leaves as long as we improve defensively.  Yes, he's fun to watch and I wish he would play the rest of his days in a Liverpool shirt, but in the end, we go on.

Agger was our best defender last season, Sakho was worst

Last season Brendan Rodgers utlilized 16 different line-ups on the back line.  I remember back in the day when Benitez used to change the line-up that often, he was ridiculed as a 'tinkerer'.  The truth is, he was ahead of his time and most successful managers started to do the same including Mourinho and Ferguson. Nowadays it's the status quo for clubs involved in multiple competitions, especially Europe (Sorry Man U).

 Rodgers, though, had a ton of injury issues to deal with last season.  Sakho, Enrique, Johnson, Toure, and Agger all had injury spells, some multiple.  Here are those line-ups along with their stats:

				M	GA	GAPM	CS
Johnson	Toure	Agger	Enrique	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Enrique	1	0	0.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Cissohko	2	0	0.00	2
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	3	2	0.67	1
Toure	Skrtel	Agger	Sakho	1	1	1.00	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	4	4	1.00	1
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	5	5	1.00	2
Toure	Skrtel	Sakho		5	7	1.40	0
Flanagan	Skrtel	Agger	Johnson	2	3	1.50	1
Wisdom	Skrtel	Sakho	Enrique	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Agger	Flanagan	2	4	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Cissohko	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Agger	1	2	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Sakho	Flanagan	5	10	2.00	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Cissohko	2	5	2.50	0
Johnson	Skrtel	Toure	Flanagan	1	3	3.00	0

Those are sorted by goals allowed per match and if we break it down per player:

	ms	ga	gapm	cs	cs%
Agger	16	15	0.94	8	0.50
Cissohko	9	11	1.22	3	0.33
Johnson	27	36	1.33	9	0.33
Toure	15	20	1.33	3	0.20
Skrtel	36	50	1.39	8	0.22
Flanagan	22	31	1.41	5	0.23
Sakho	17	26	1.53	1	0.06

It's pretty clear our most valuable player on the back line is Agger.  It's not even close.  In fact, we only had 2 clean sheets without him.  What's disappointing is Sakho appears to be the biggest liability.  One clean sheet in 17 starts and the highest goal allowed per match average at 1.53.

I'm not sure what Rodgers plans on doing since it was pretty clear by the end of last season that Skrtel and Sakho were his first choice centre backs.  If they continue last year's form, that's not acceptable.  Agger is our best defensive back and I don't know what else proof the gaffer needs.  We will not win the league next year unless we shore up our defense, no matter what hard decisions need to be made.  I like Sakho, but if that means sitting him, so be it.