There has been a lot of speculation that what happened to the Spurs last season after Bale left for Real Madrid could be what awaits Liverpool now that Suarez is gone, but that's highly unlikely. First and foremost, the Spurs 'collapse' was not just due to Bale's exit, but a massive roster changeover that saw seven important players replaced. Villas-Boas essentially started with a new club and unlike Bale's final season with Spurs, Tottenham started the 2013-14 season on the grace of fortune.
They won their first two matches, at Palace and home against Swans, 1-0, both via penalty converted by Robert Soldado. Then a loss at Emirates was followed by an unimpressive 2-0 win at White Hart Lane over Norwich City and a 1-0 win at Cardiff that despite 12 shots on goal, required 93' heroics by Paulinho to seal the victory. They sat 2nd on the table, though undeservedly, when they next welcomed Chelsea, only managing a 1-1 draw despite going ahead in the 19th minute and having a man advantage after Torres was sent off for a second yellow in the 81st.
They still sat 2nd, but the 3-0 thrashing by the Hammers at White Hart Lane that followed revealed their biggest weakness, their inability to convert goal scoring opportunities. Despite dominating possession, having a passing success rate of 83%, and 14 shots (4 on goal), Spurs could not put the ball in the back of the net. Last season they were 11th in the league with 9.4% shot conversion rate and a chance created value of 7.5%, 15th in the league. Roberto Soldado, the player they brought in to make up for Bale's goal-scoring absence, only scored 6 goals the entire campaign and 4 of those were pens.
Though Spurs managed to garner 7 points in the next three matches (@Villa, Hull, & @Everton), they had yet to play City or Liverpool, who handed them 4 decimating losses with a staggering combined -19 goal difference. Ironically, that same defence which let goals go in against the top two like ghosts trying to stop bullets, saved Tottenham from a disastrous year, only allowing 31 goals against the other 17 clubs in the remaining 34 fixtures.
So how much did Bale's loss play in their attacking downfall? In his last season, Bale scored 21 goals and managed 4 assists. He was responsible for 31.8% of goals scored and 37.8% goals created. The Welshman was also responsible for 17.1% of his side's chances created, but his 5.3% chance created value was far below Spurs' average. As a team, Spurs scored 11 more goals, 66 to 55, and allowed 5 less, 46 to 51. Their shot conversion rate of 9.7%, was only 0.3% better, but their chance created value of 8.8% exceeded their following season's effort by 1.3%. For all his efforts though, Bale had only a goals on pitch difference of 0.06, which means essentially he gave Tottenham a +2 goal edge for the season.
The most indicative sign that it was the unfamiliarity of the group instead of the absence of one player that lead to their lack of productivity was their passing and drop in chances created value. The Spurs' overall passing rate dropped from 83.1 to 81.8% and ccv fell from 8.8% to 7.5%. They clearly had trouble breaking down the opposition defence and creating more easily converted chances as they only attempted 5% of their shots inside their opponent's box, 2nd worst in the league.
Suarez, much like Bale, was responsible for a large part of Liverpool's goal-scoring prowess last season. His 31 goals and 13 assists were 30.7% of goals scored and 43.6% goals created. His chance created value was 14.2%, second to only Sturridge and 1.3% better than the club rate. His goals on pitch difference was 1.49, a +0.17 difference compared to Liverpool's average of 1.32. Suarez was more important to Liverpool's attack than Bale, but Liverpool still has Sturridge, Sterling, and Gerrard, while Spurs also got rid of Defoe and Dempsey along with Bale. Those three made up 59.1% of Spurs' goals and 75.8% of goals created, that's absurd.
Tottenham struggled through last season because they lost a majority of their attack and had to rely on a large group of players gelling quickly if they were going to improve from the previous campaign. That rarely happens, but Spurs still only finished a place lower and three points off the previous season. Liverpool have the luxury of returning most of their players and all of their important ones except Suarez, of course. As I have written prior, if Liverpool play better defence and make smarter decisions on the ball, they don't need to make up for the absence of Suarez, we could have won the league last season with 20 less goals, had we not played such poor defence. No matter what, finishing a place lower and three points off next season will be disappointing, though unlike Villas-Boas, I doubt it will cost Rodgers his job.
