The Villan to watch out for on Saturday

Aston Villa is a dreadful, mundane side.  Currently they rank as the third worst attacking side and are second worst on defence, so how have they managed seven points in their first three matches?  Well, other than being quite fortuitous, they rely heavily on their five best players setting up shop in front of the net.

The Birmingham club lives and dies by the performances and defensive cohesiveness of Guzan, Senderos, Vlaar, Westwood, and Delph.  Vlaar is the heart while Delph is the engine and Westwood is the brains of the operation.  Senderos is there just to take care of the leftovers and Guzan is the mouth, his job is to keep everyone talking.  So if you want to stop Villa from initiating attack, take Westwood out of the picture.  If Westwood can't get the ball out to Richardson or N'Zogbia or is unable to break into the Liverpool's third by himself, the Villans will curl up and die a slow death.  Delph will occasionally make a dangerous run forward, but that leaves his side thoroughly exposed on the counter, something in which Liverpool are quite adept, so he'll probably be cautious to do so on Saturday.

For Liverpool to score, they are going to have to penetrate the invisible fortress maintained by the five aforementioned Villa players.  Our best bet is to have Sterling or Coutinho or Markovic or even Suso bring the ball up on the left and go straight at Alan Hutton, if he's not already behind them after a futile attempt at defence or attack.  They are going to have to draw out Senderos and pass the ball back across in the middle to whomever is rushing forward or, God forbid, play the cross game, attempting cross after cross hoping to find Balotelli or Lambert in a welcomed spot in the box.  The latter isn't really Rodger's approach so hopefully we won't resort to such mindless Van Gaalish/'European' tactics.

Villa will rely more on Delph's athleticism to stop Liverpool's attack, which means Westwood will be relied even more on attack.  I highly doubt he'll score, but he is their best 'specialized' passer, though no where near the class of a Gerrard.  Still Liverpool need to respect his abilities and with Skrtel out, hopefully Sakho won't make too many of his runs into the opponent's half.  Lucas cannot continue his horrible form so far this season either, but at least he's more likely to stay back.  In the end. I think Liverpool will prevail, but a nice old fashion whipping would be a much-needed comfort.

Three weeks of hell? Or has the Fixture God shown mercy?

Liverpool play seven matches in three weeks starting with Villa at Anfield on Saturday.  The thing is, all seven are winnable, even with the injuries we have sustained recently.  The 2-0-1 record, 7 points, and current third place standing on the table are flattering to deceive for the Villans.  To say they've been lucky would be the understatement of the season by far.  They were manhandled at Stoke in their first match, but somehow managed a 1-0 win. They needed a red card by Newcastle to get a 0-0 result at home in week two, and barely managed to hold on against Hull at Villa Park two weekends ago.  Karma has to catch up with them at some point and history says it could very well come Saturday.

Next up we host Ludogorets on Tuesday, our easiest Champions League fixture by far.  I can see Rodgers going with a 'weaker' side in this match, hopefully Suso will play a part.  I don't know if he'll go as far as starting Borini, but he could make the bench.  Then we go to Upton Park to take on the Hammers, where Liverpool has won 7 of the last 9 matches and Rodgers has never lost to Allardyce or West Ham.   The London club has the sixth most efficient defence, but sixth worst attacking efficiency, who knows how that could change when they face the equally volatile Hull City on Monday.

Three days later, Liverpool host Middlesborough in the League Cup.  We should definitely see an 'experimental' side here.  If Markovic hasn't broken his duck by then, this will be his best opportunity.  Liverpool have not lost to the Boro at Anfield since March 6, 1976, 38 years ago and before I was born.  The two have not met since 2009, when the then Premier League side beat Liverpool 2-0 at Riverside.  I remember the dismal affair, Nabil El Zhar started for us, Xabi scored an own goal, and Tuncay sealed it in the 63rd minute.  LFC dominated the match in every aspect, winning 9 corners to Boro's 2, having 16 shots, 7 on-target to the home side's 5 and 3 respectively, 84.7% to 65.6% passing, and 72% to 28% possession, but just couldn't score.  It was one of the matches looked back on as costing Liverpool the title that season and baffled many as the Reds had just beat Real Madrid 1-0 at the Bernabeu three days earlier.

One of the harder matches of the lot is Liverpool hosting Everton the Saturday following the Boro fixture.  I'm not really that worried as much as I probably should be when it comes to hosting the lesser Liverpool club.  They have not beaten us in four years, at Anfield in 19 years, and how suspect their defence has been this season, we should be able to get the goals needed for three points.  Any result less than a win will be unacceptable and detrimental to any chance of winning the League.

If a visit from the Blue side of Merseyside isn't the hardest fixture of this bunch, the trip to Basel four days later definitely is.  Kicking off October at the defending Swiss Super League Champions in our second CL fixture isn't the worst of scenarios, but even if our squad isn't as injury depleted as it is now, we will still have fatigued players.  That'll be six matches in 19 days, only Man City have the depth to maintain a high level of football during that kind of run.  The good news is, we've never lost to Basel, that bad news is, we've never beaten Basel and we've only ever played them twice.  The 'Rotblau' currently sit atop the SSL table, are unbeaten in 7 matches with 6 wins, and lead the league in goals scored with 18.  I still think we can get a win here, but will not be too aggrieved if we only manage a draw.  Wins at home are a must in CL group play and that should be enough to get us through to the elimination round.

Finally, we end the Shine on Harvest Moon tour with a visit from West Brom.  The Baggies have baffled us the past few years, a ship that seemed to be righted with our 4-1 dismantling of the West Midlands club, but a title costly 1-1 result at the Hawthorns last February rekindled the recent pain. Before winning at Anfield in two of the last three meetings, WBA hadn't won there since 1965.  Liverpool are 3-1-4 versus West Brom in their last 8 meetings in all comps, but the Baggies have the least efficient defence in the league by quite a distance.  We should be able to end this run with three points as long as we don't beat ourselves.

EPL Fantasy Picks R4: Can't budge on Studge

I have yet to be able to adorn these fantasy picks posts with Liverpool players and now that I can, Sturridge is sidelined.  There is a plethora of chop-lickin' picks this week including Liverpool, Chelsea, Stoke, Southampton, Man U, and even Hull?

Keeper
Asmir Begovic is the best keeper in the league and has the third most efficient defence playing in front of him.  Factor in Stoke is home against Leicester on Saturday and it's a no-brainer.  The Foxes have dropped all the way to second-to-last in attack eficiency, but they should be able to get off some shots on goal, though nothing Begovic can't handle.

Alternates: Speroni (CP), Mignolet (Liv), Forster (Sou), MacGregor (Hull)

Begovic also looks like a solid long-term pick as well with Stoke's upcoming fixtures: vs Leicester, at QPR, home to Newwcastle, at Sunderland, and then hosting Swansea.  Mignolet has a lot of clean sheet chances coming up, the only worry being the massive schedule congestion coming up with Champions League and League Cup play.  LFC play a ridiculous 7 fixtures in the next 23 days.  Other decent picks are DeGea (Man U), Forster (Sou), and if you're feeling particularly cardiac-ish, Burnley's Tom Heaton has 5 weeks of clean sheet chances coming up.

Defenders
A blind monkey could probably pick a productive group of backs this week. The dream team would be Shawcross (Sto), Ivanovic (Che), Lovren (Liv), and Chester (Hull).  The almost dreamy team would be Pieters (Sto), Moreno (Liv), Davies (Hull), and Clyne (Sou).  The 'what the hell they'll probably do well' side would be Terry (Che), Dann (CP), Alderweireld (Sou), and Sakho (or Skrtel) (Liv).  Finally, the 'why not? they are worth a shot' side is Rojo (Man U), Blackett (Man U), Kelly (CP), and Wilson (Sto).  If I could only pick four, I would really role the dice and go with: Terry, Rojo, Kelly, and Pieters, just have a 'weird' feeling about those four.  Is Daley Blind (Man U) listed as a defender? If so, he's worth a shot as well.

In the long term, it's more of who to avoid from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton.  I think I'd go Shawcross, Lovren, Rojo, and oddly enough, Fonte (Sou).  The latter is also worthy of a pick this week as well.  The players I would avoid from those four clubs are Sakho (Liv), mostly because Skrtel will start when he's fit, Bardsley (Sto), Bertrand (Sou),  and Evans (Man U).  The latter three are all capable of having a solid run, but statistically least likely.

Midfielders
The elephant man's bones could pick a decent midfield this week. The ace picks are Sterling (Liv),Fabregas, Oscar, Hazard (Che), Schniederlin (Sou), Zaha (CP), DiMaria (Man U), and Mata (Man U).  Decent picks are Henderson, Gerrard (Liv), Schurrle (Che), Cazorla (Ars), MacArthur, Puncheon (CP), McGeady (Eve), Livermore, Elmohamady, Ramirez (Hull), Ward-Prowse (Sou), N'Zonzi, Whelan, Moses (Sto), Johnson, Larrson, Rodwell, Giaccherini (Sun), Brunt, Gardner, and Morrison (WBA).  Seriously, put all those names in a hat and draw, you'll probably have a better chance than anyone picking a high-scoring group.  Again, if I had a gun to my head and had to go with my gut, I'd take Sterling, Schniederlin, Zaha, and DiMaria.  If you truly want to take a gamble go with either Markovic or Lallana.

Long term picks are the same for defenders, pick from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton with a little sense and it should turn out fine.  The players I would avoid though are Davis, Wanyama (Sou), Herrera (Man U), Allen and Lucas (Liv).  Mainly because they are either inconsistent or not consistently in the line-up.

Forwards
Seriously, if you need help picking a few strikers for your team this week, you should probably just quit.  A dead fish on a ouija board listening to Justin Bieber could pick decent front men this round.  The prime picks are Balotelli (Liv), DeCosta (Che), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U), Pelle, Long (Sou), and Diouf (Sto).  The boss picks are Gayle (CP), Lukaku, Naismith (Eve), Hernandez, Jelavic (Hull), Crouch (Sto), Wickham (Sun), and Berahino (WBA). The 'that guy at Anfield Banter don't know squat' picks are Zarate (WHam), Dzeko (MCity), Mirallas (Eve), Flacao (Man U) and Welbeck (Ars).  If I went with my gut, I'd go with Balotelli, DeCosta, and Gayle.

My long term forwards would be Balotelli, Rooney, Pelle, Long, Diouf, and Bony (Swa).

Make sure to check and make sure your players are not injured and expected to start before the first match on Saturday.  Not my problem otherwise.  Cheers and buena suerte.

Will Liverpool 'throttle' Villa at Anfield? Will Lazar get off the 'Markovic'? Inquiring minds just exploded.

Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons.  They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2.  Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years.  Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well.  The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.

Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993.  A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough.  The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1.  A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.

Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs.  In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures.  They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win.  After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.

Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history.  The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1.  Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal.  The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4.  In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals.  Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.

So what do all these numbers say?  Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark.  I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.

Spurs 0, LFC 3: Five things learnt

1. Mamadou Sakho is a bad influence.
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal.  Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury.  It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.

2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box.  Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created.  Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.

3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter.  All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated.  That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:

	att	def	ovr
Tottenham	0.633	0.679	0.656
Liverpool	0.54	0.645	0.593

As you can see, Tottenham were superior, they just weren't able to take advantage of their chances.  That could have been due to Liverpool's defence or Spurs' incompetence.

4. Do I really have to start calculating 'forced back passes'?

Tottenham were forced to make 94 backward passes in Liverpool's third out of 121 completed overall.  They attempted 95 and 160 respectively, which means that 38 times the ball either went out of bounds or changed possession.  It also means they were only able to continue their forward attack on 27 passes.

5. Liverpool can play defence when they want to.

28 tackles, 14 interceptions, 45 clearances, and 2 blocked shots, that's quite a line.  Not to mention the clean sheet.  The good part is we can play better and will need to when we have to play the real contenders.  The moments of communication breakdown were quite evident versus Spurs and others will punish us for that.

Sturridge remains least efficient on Liverpool, N'Zogbia now worst overall

*Only players with 180 minutes played qualify.

Sturridge is still the least overall efficient player LFC player at 0.492.  He has averaged about 12 'give-aways' per match and a 78.1% pass completion percentage.  True strikers are always going to be 'middle of the pack' at best as they take more chances and are usually out-numbered in the final third. Jovetic is the highest rated and he's 71st in the league, Sturridge ranks 155th out of 191.  Goals don't matter much, even if Sturridge had scored 10 goals in the first three matches, his per would have only went up to 0.565, good for only 126th, which happens to be Alexis Sanchez' current ranking.

The ten worst overall per:

C. N'Zogbia	0.338
L. Jutkiewicz	0.355
M. Phillips	0.358
C. Wickham	0.361
M. Biram Diouf	0.390
Kieran Tripper	0.394
C. Cole	0.399
Loic Remy	0.409
Y. Bolasie	0.419
J. Schlupp	0.420

I didn't realize N'Zogbia still played  in the league, I also can't believe he's only 28.  Seems like he's been around forever.  Loic Remy was clearly unhappy at QPR, watch how miraculously his stats go up at Chelsea.  Not only because he got out of Loftus Road, but now he's got world class service from Fabregas & Co.

Liverpool has played hardest schedule, boasts best defence

Not being too pleased with defensive rating results after matches this past weekend, I decided to tweak my formula to consider strength of opponent.  Mainly I just wanted to make it so I could 'prove' Liverpool have been the best defensive side and that Man U are not as good as my ratings say.  Unfortunately, I could only manage the former.

Here are the most difficult schedules according to opponent's attack efficiency:

team	opp ape
Liverpool	0.66872
Leicester	0.65853
Burnley	0.65069
C Palace	0.62751
WBA	0.61973

I didn't even factor in home field advantage, which would more than likely pad Liverpool's lead at the top of the table considering they have played at City and at Spurs. In the end though, it is a non-factor since all clubs will have played each other home and away, but I will probably start factoring it in after match day five.

The least difficult schedules?

club	opp ape
Arsenal	0.52008
Hull City	0.53570
Chelsea	0.54696
Newcastle	0.55131
Tottenham	0.57160

Arsenal, far and away, have had the easiest walk in the park, but have only managed 5 points in 3 matches.  Is Hull relegation bound?  Their second half against Villa suggests not, but they still lost and their schedule just gets harder from here on out.

So here are the adjusted defensive rankings:

club	adj dpe
Liverpool	0.93203
Burnley	0.93190
Stoke	0.90287
Man U	0.87822
Leicester	0.87333

Burnley and Leicester are here on strength of schedule and the fact that two of their first three matches have been at home.  Stoke is apparently the real deal as they showed at City Saturday and Man U is basically here because they dominated two crap sides, only managing draws though, and lost to a somewhat decent Swansea attack.

Worst defences:

club	adj dpe
Aston Villa	0.798
Swansea	0.805
Hull City	0.806
Tottenham	0.810
Newcastle	0.816

Villa come to Anfield next and if LFC take them seriously, it should be a route.

Skrtel top defensively, Flamini takes over attack & overall

Martin Skrtel didn't even touch the pitch on Sunday, but he still went to the top of the defensive efficieny table.  That's what happen when everyone else falters.  If he doesn't play at least 60 minutes in two weeks time when we host Villa, he'll no longer qualify.

player	dpe
M. Skrtel	0.905
M. Flamini	0.899
C. Chambers	0.889
J. O'Shea	0.888
P. McShane	0.878
R. Ferdinand	0.877
F. Coloccini	0.877
D. Lovren	0.873
V. Kompany	0.873
P. Jagielka	0.870

 Flamini has produced an absolutely ridiculous 95.2% pass completion rate in his two matches for Arsenal, which helped him take top in both attack and overall efficiency.  The most excellent Morgan Schniederlin makes his debut in attack rankings and I expect him to be there for the long run.

player	ppe
M. Flamini	0.856
S. Nasri	0.855
Y. Toure	0.838
D. Fletcher	0.813
S. Cazorla	0.805
N. Bentaleb	0.803
Cesc Fàbregas	0.789
E. Capoue	0.788
Schneiderlin	0.785
G. Barry	0.784

John O'Shea may be a bit surprising, but he rarely makes mistakes, and Capoue is a ball-moving machine, second in the league only to Aaron Ramsey with 339 touches but leads with 301 pass attempts.  Gerrard dropped to 33rd overall, by the way.

player	per
M. Flamini	0.878
Y. Toure	0.837
J. O'Shea	0.834
S. Nasri	0.829
C. Chambers	0.829
F. Coloccini	0.829
E. Capoue	0.824
D. Fletcher	0.824
Fernando	0.821
V. Kompany	0.818

Without Dean Hammond and Andy King, Leicester would probably be pointless, as would there season, but those two have carried the foxes thus far.

player	eot
D. Hammond	0.207
J. O'Shea	0.206
Andy King	0.202
David Jones	0.192
J. Olsson	0.182
Ron Vlaar	0.179
Dean Marney	0.179
G. Whelan	0.179
F. Coloccini	0.169
P. Senderos	0.168

Skrtel is Liverpool's most valuable player with 0.148 eot, followed by Lovren at 0.108 and Gerrard at 0.100.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness...

They dominated possession, had a higher pass completion percentage, and were superior in the air, but Tottenham still limped away 3-0 losers.  How could this be? Counter attack and positioning.  All three of Liverpool goals were due to anticipating our opponent's movements and responding quickly.  That takes practice and talent, an ode to our mad Professor Rodgers.

What made it most impressive is that Gerrard had an uncharacteristically poor performance on attack, but made up for it on defence.  He completed just 71.1% of his passes, his lowest amount for a long time, but did have 3 tackles and 8 clearances.  Without some of those clearances, it may have been a closer match.

Gerrard's bi-polar display was quite indicative of many other LFC 'stars'.  Sterling was tremendous on the ball, scored a great goal, but his passing was poor (69.7%)and he really should have had scored from point blank range.  Lovren was impressive as well with 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 13 clearances, but his passing was also dreadful and he had to make two potential goal-saving tackles that were probably his fault to begin with.

Balotelli and Allen were not at their best, but Manquillo and Sturridge were the worst of the bunch.  The former was clearly rattled and wasted passes throughout, while the latter seemed to be trying to hard to make things happen.  I don't want to say he is trying to make up for the loss of Suarez, but he is, and it isn't working.  He's got to let the match come to him.

Henderson, Can, and Markovic played well, the last two in a cameo capacity.  I can't wait to see how the Serbian does in a full debut, he's very confident and smooth on the ball, which is entertaining to watch.  My man of the match though was Moreno, but not just because of his lung-bursting stunner.  He also added 4 tackles, 9 clearances, and a passing percentage of  87.1%, when others failed to post decent passing stats.

This was a must-win for several reasons, mostly for the confidence of the team and supporters.  If we can go into a place like White Hart Lane and not play to the best of our ability, but still come away with an impressive 3-0 win, just imagine who we can beat at our best.  Fortunately our next 12 fixtures are favorable, hopefully we'll win all of them and be at our confident best when Chelsea come to town November 8th.

Tottenham 0, Liverpool 1: thoughts on the 'fast' break

It's been quite an entertaining half, at least between the boxes.  Both sides seem to have had great build-ups in possession, but in so, neither seem to be able to create solid chances in the opposition's box.  All the potential goals and the solo goal have come on the counter.

Spurs dominated possession the first third of the match, but then Liverpool started to take control.  During Tottenham's seeming domination, the only goal came about on a tremendous effort by Henderson, who intercepted the initial ball and passed to Sturridge.  Studge, who isn't having the best of afternoons, played the ball into a streaking Henderson, who found Sterling brilliantly on a cross box pass.  Sterling slotted it in, leaving Spurs defence wondering what had just happened.

The quickness of the scoring string was indicative of Liverpool's play so far.  They set a precedent on pace and Spurs are struggling to keep it up.  If they want to play our style, we should be able to add a couple of more goals in the second.  If they slow it down, well, as long they cover the counter, this match is probably over as they are having trouble breaking the box playing that way.

As for individual performance, Sterling and Henderson are the cream of a rather mediocre crop.  Balotelli has played well, but he really should have a goal with chances like his header gone wide on the Gerrard free kick and that open goal when Lloris straggled out of the box.  Speaking of Gerrard, he's had a very up-and-down match, more down though, if he can calm down it will greatly increase our chances of three points.  On ward and (hopefully) upward...

Fantasy picks for match day 3: Newcastle, Villa, Swansea, West Ham & City are the way to go

Keepers
This week: Tim Krul (Newcastle)

Alternates: Brad Guzan (Villa), Fabianski (Swansea), Hart (Man City), De Gea (Man U), Robert Green (QPR).

Long term: De Gea, Krul, Forster (Southampton), Mannone (Sunderland)

Defenders
This week: Alan Hutton (Aston Villa), Dummett (Newcastle), Kompany (Man City), Armat (Swansea)

Alternates: Vlaar (Villa), Coloccini, Williamson (Newcastle), Williams, Rangel (Swansea), Ferdinand (QPR)

Long term: Dummett, Coloccini (Newcastle), Fonte (Southampton), O'Shea (Sunderland), Blackett, Jones (Man U)

Midfielders
This week: Barton (QPR), Nasri (Man City), Sigurdsson (Swansea), Cabella (Newcastle)

Alternates: Delph, Westwood (Villa), Colback, Sissoko (Newcastle), Ki Sung-yeung (Swansea), Silva, Toure (Man City), Noble, Kouyate (West Ham)

Long term: Valencia (Man U), Larsson (Sunderland), Colback, Cabella, Sissoko (Newcastle), Schniederlin (Southampton), Gerrard, Sterling (Liverpool)

Forwards
This week: Bony (Swansea), Riviere (Newcastle)

Alternates: Dzeko, Jovetic, Aguero (Man City), Cole (Newcastle), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U)

Long term: Pelle, Long (Southampton), Wickham, Fletcher (Sunderland), Sturridge (Liverpool), Riviere, De Jong, Gouffran (Newcastle)

Pay close attention to transfer news as some may not be with their club come match time.

Obscured by Dowd: A history of the ref & LFC

Phil Dowd is the ref for this Sunday's match at White Hart Lane, here is a breakdown of his record with Liverpool.  He has refereed 57 matches featuring Liverpool Football Club in all competitions.  In those matches, LFC is 21-12-14 and have accumulated 61 cards, 57 yellows, 2 yellow-reds and 1 straight red.  Our opponents have received 88 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 2 straight reds.

Dowd has awarded 5 penalties to Liverpool all-time, 4 at Anfield and 1 on the road (funny enough coming in a loss at White Hart Lane).  Three of those came against Crystal Palace in 2004 with Milan Baros converting two.  The Czech striker had the third waved off, but he still managed a hat-trick in the 3-2 win at Anfield.

Away from Anfield, LFC is 6-4-10 under the disciplinary guidance of Mr. Dowd in all competitions, receiving 37 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 1 straight red.  Their opponents have accumulated 40 cards, all yellow.

In Premier League play, Liverpool is 17-12-10 with Dowd, but only 4-6-9 away from Anfield.  They have received 33 cards in visiting matches (31 y, 1 y-r, 1 r) while their home opponents have been booked 29 times, all yellow.

Twice Dowd has mediated matches between Spurs and LFC at White Hart Lane, both times Tottenham won.  The first time in January 2008, a heart-breaking affair that would wind up costing Liverpool a chance at the title that season.  Up 1-0 through two-thirds of the match, Jamie Carragher headed in an own goal against the run of play and in the 91st minute, a shambolic defensive display allowed Pavlyuchenko to score the winner.

The second match occurred November 2012, also resulting in a 2-1 Spurs win.  The north London club went up 2-0 in the opening 16 minutes with goals from Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale, never looking back.  The only 'goal' Liverpool could manage was a Bale own goal in the 72nd minute.

Dowd has over seen some other significant matches including Brendan Rodgers' EPL debut as LFC manager.  In a controversial affair at the Hawthorns, Dowd awarded West Brom two ridiculous penalties and handed five cards to Liverpool players including a laughable straight red to Daniel Agger.  Another match he refereed was our 1-2 FA Cup final loss to Chelsea in May 2012.

Sunday is looking very 'drawish' at Tottenham

Before last season's 5-0 drubbing at White Hart Lane, Liverpool had lost five straight matches there.  The Reds are 6-5-11 in 22 Premiership seasons at Tottenham.  Seven of those losses finished with a 1-2 scoreline.  Liverpool have scored 30 goals and allowed 32 at Spurs over that period.

In their 20 matches away from Anfield on match day 3, LFC is 6-5-9.  They are 1-1-0 at White Hart Lane during that time, a 0-0 draw in 2005-06 and 3-1 win in 1995-96.  In the latter match, John Barnes scored a brace to give him 100 career goals for Liverpool, while Robbie Fowler's lone goal gave him 50.

Liverpool is 6-8-5 at the previous season 6th place finisher, though that opponent has never been Spurs.

The previous season 2nd place finisher is 9-6-6 at the previous season 6th place side, though the former has only lost once in the previous 8 meetings when Liverpool beat Chelsea 4-1 in 2011-12.   Liverpool is 1-0-1 as the second place side in this situation, beating Villa 1-0 in 2009-10 and losing to Chelsea 2-1 in 02-03.

Everything points to a draw at the moment, but there's still plenty of research to be done.

Chelsea & Tottenham dominate most outstanding performances from Matchday Two

Most outstanding performances from matchday two:

Calum Chambers, Arsenal
47/49 passing, 95.9%, 1 cc, 2 tackles, 1 int, 10 clearances

Dean Marney, Burnley
62/67 passing, 92.5%, 6/7 long passes, 2 cc, 5 tackles, 4 ints, 2 clearances

Eden Hazard, Chelsea
1 goal, 48/54 passing, 88.9%, 7 cc, 6 successful take-ons, 2 sot

Cesc Fabregas, Chelsea
72/77 passes, 93.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 3 take-ons, 1 tackles

Cesar Azpilicueta, Chelsea
50/55 passes, 90.9%, 1 cc, 5 tackles, 2 ints, 6 clearances

Mile Jedinak, Crystal Palace
9/10 aerial duels, 1 cc, 6 tackles, 4 ints, 1 blocked shot

Antonio Valencia, Man United
54/59 passing, 91.5%, 1 cc, 7 tackles, 3 ints, 1 blocked shot

Joey Barton, QPR
42/50 passing, 84%, 9/13 long passes, 4 cc, 7 tackles, 2 ints

Ryan Shawcross, Stoke
1 goal, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 3 tackles, 1 int, 12 clearances, 1 blocked shot

Ashley Williams, Swansea
61/67 passes, 91%, 10/15 long passes, 2 tackles, 2 ints, 11 clearances

Emmanuel Adebayor, Tottenham
1 g, 1 ast, 38/42 passing, 90.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 1 int, 1 clearance

Erik Lamela, Tottenham
2 assists, 43/48 passing, 89.6%, 3 cc, 5 take-ons, 3 tackles, 2 ints

Nacer Chadli, Tottenham
2 goals, 26/28 passing, 92.9%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 2 ints, 1 clearances

Eric Dier, Tottenham
1 g, 42/48 passing, 87.5%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 7 tackles, 1 clearance

Danny Rose, Tottenham
1 assist, 59/66 passing, 89.4%, 1 cc, 5/7 aerial duels, 2 tckls, 3 ints, 4 clrs

Youssouf Mulumbu, WBA
50/58 passing, 86.2%, 1 take-on, 9 tackles, 6 ints, 1 blocked shot

Cheikhou Kouyate, West Ham
1 assist, 1 cc, 2 sot, 5/10 aerial duels, 4 take-ons, 5 tckls, 2 ints, 2 clearances

Man City 1, Liverpool 0: Thoughts at the break

Until about five minutes to go, Liverpool were by far the better side.  One error then the walls come crumbling down and that was our problem last season.  We must maintain composure and regain the form we had in the first half when we were in control of the match.

I thought Coutinho looked better, but what do I know? Glen Johnson is still passing to ghosts, Joe Allen has been impressive for Joe Allen, but would like to see what Can can do.

There were some interesting calls though, the 'foul' on Henderson instead of a corner being the most obvious.

Blaming Moreno for that goal is just stupid, Jovetic sneaked up on him and knocked the ball his way.  It was a great goal from the player I actually picked to score first.

Will we be able to get back into this? Capability is without question, but unfortunately we can't take risks or City will make us pay.  Maybe it's Markovic time.  Let's see what our 'Zlatan' can do.

Impressive stats so far:
Gerrard       96% passing
Man City     1/20 on long balls

Mental Team Stats from Matchday One

Most efficient in possession

Man City	0.695
Arsenal	0.690
Man U	0.681
Everton	0.676
Chelsea	0.673
Liverpool	0.645

Keeping the ball away from City would be ideal.  And Jesus Navas didn't even play.

Defensive efficiency

C Palace	0.212
Sunderland	0.172
Hull City	0.150
Leicester	0.136
Swansea	0.130

Crystal Palace continues their dominating defensive form from last season, meanwhile City is 11th (0.102), Liverpool is 12th (0.100), and Man United are dead last (0.057).

Overall Efficiency

Man City	0.798
Arsenal	0.766
Chelsea	0.749
Everton	0.746
Liverpool	0.746

The most important of these three numbers taking into account all favorable actions of players (i.e. keeping possession and preventing the other side from scoring).  Arsenal is only ranked high here because of their passing, I expect them to fall rapidly as they play sides that focus more on possession-based defence instead of Palace's somewhat suicidal 'mighty fortress' stance.

Chance created value

Swansea	0.400
Crystal Palace	0.333
Chelsea	0.222
Liverpool	0.200
Everton	0.167

United is in a ton of trouble if they don't get some help on defence, Swansea has a decent attack but it's no where near the abilities of the top clubs.

Tidbits

- West Ham created the most chances of any side with 13, but failed to score.  They also connected on the most crosses with 11, while Tottenham was the only club that was unsuccessful on all their cross attempts, going 0 for 13.

- Arsenal completed the most passes with 640, 89 more than 2nd-most Chelsea, but they attempted the least amount of long balls in 34.

- QPR took the most shots (19) and tied for the most on goal (6) with Arsenal and Southampton, but failed to score.

- Liverpool lead all sides in take-ons with 15.

- Not surprising, even though Howard Webb retired, Man United 'won' the most fouls with 20.

- Only three clubs had multiple assists: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Swansea, all three sides won.