Suso to score? Liverpool to win 3-2? What the betting markets are saying.

To win:
Man City   13/15  60.21%
Liverpool   10/3    20.64%
Draw          3/1     19.15%

Not enough money on City and too much of a pay off to expect a win/draw tomorrow, but the market isn't always right.

First to score:
Sergio Aguero      9/2    17.65%
Raheem Sterling   11/1   17.65%
No goal scorer     14/1   17.65%
Edin Dezeko         5/1    11.76%
Daniel Sturridge    7/1      8.82%

I actually like Jovetic here at 6/1, Y. Toure is good value at 7/1 but he played deep against Newcastle and think he may do the same here.  Lazar Markovic at 14/1 is a stretch, but if he makes the pitch I expect him to try his damnest to score on his debut, especially against the champs.

Other decent first to score bets: Silva 10/1, Nasri 9/1, Gerrard 14/1, & Skrtel 33/1.
Shots in the dark: Milner 22/1, Manquillo 66/1, Lazar Markovic 14/1, & Bacary Sagna 45/1
Sucker bets: Lambert 10/1 (that number is way too low) & Borini 9/1

Correct Final Score:
Liverpool 3-2   35/1   13.64%
Draw 1-1          8/1    11.36%
Draw 0-0         16/1    9.85%
Draw 2-2         14/1    9.09%
Man City 4-2   50/1    7.58%

The other favorites are City 2-1 (8/1) and City 1-0 (19/2). I am shocked that anyone thinks we will score 3 against City, their defence is just too good.  If we do win, it'll be 2-1 or 1-0, but I think we'll be lucky to get away with a draw.  The Liverpool fan in me says 'Pool 2-0, the pragmatic, intelligent football analyst says Citeh with an emphatical 3-0 win.  Sorry, but we are not on their level... yet.  If Markovic plays and shows he is the talent he's built up to be, then I will be more optimistic.

Draw No Bet:
Man City     2/5   77.78%
Liverpool  28/13  22.22%

That's not good.

Anytime Goalscorer:
Stevan Jovetic      2/1    27.78%
Daniel Sturridge  11/5   16.67%
Raheem Sterling   7/2    16.67%
David Silva          7/2      5.56%
Suso                    5/1      5.56%

Suso? Really? He was no where near the bench on match day one and now that Markovic and possibly Lallana are fit, he probably won't even be in the stands.  Jovetic is crazy at 2/1, which puts a first goalscorer bet in jeopardy as well.  Sturridge, Aguero (6/4),and Dzeko (6/4) would be my picks.  My long shots would be Coutinho (5/1), Kolarov (13/2), and Skrtel (14/1).

Man of the Match:
David Silva                12/1   56.25%
Jordan Henderson     18/1    31.25%
Sergio Aguero            7/1     12.50%

Yaya Toure (7/1), Raheem Sterling (9/1), and any goalkeeper (16/1) seem like decent bets.

Bets if you're feeling lucky:
Kolarov to score 2 or more goals 75/1
The Serbian left back is just the sort of player who has the big game against us.

Henderson to receive a card (5/1)
Henderson and Oliver have a 'history'.

Man City by a goal (11/4)
This is logically the most likely result, but logical people don't gamble much.

LFC at Man City: Matchday history madness

In the past 20 league meetings at City, Liverpool is 5-9-6, having failed to win at the Etihad in six years, losing 3 of the last 4.  Prior to then, the Reds had suffered three total loses there in 17 years.  Last season they met on Boxing Day with a mystery offside call and a controversial non-call on a penalty shout for Suarez denying LFC a draw and/or possible win.

Their annual league date at City has occurred on week two of the season twice in the past 23 years with Man City winning both ties.  The first was in 1991 at Maine Road with the home side winning 2-1 and the other was in 2010-2011 at Eastlands with City winning 3-0, thanks in part to a brace by Carlos Tevez.

Liverpool is 7-6-7 in their last 20 week two matches away, but have won their last two, at Villa last season and at Emirates in 2011-12.  Of their five wins prior, they've won the league 4 of those times they've won their week two road fixture.

Man City is 9-4-7 in week two fixtures overall for the past 20 seasons.  They have not lost at home in week 2 for 25 years though, posting a 9-2-0 record over that span.  Their last week two loss at home was 1-2 to Southampton in 1989.

The previous season number two is 4-7-9 in their away fixture at the previous season league champion in the past 20 years. Here's an interesting stat, the four times the previous second place side has won, they've gone on to win the league.  Prior to the last two seasons, the defending champs had won five straight, five of six, and was undefeated in 10 (6-4-0).

So what does this say about next Monday's match? Well, history is not on Liverpool's side, that's for sure.  It's too early to make any predictions though, no idea who'll be available or if we my sign an influential player by then.

LFC 2, Southampton 1: Great? No. Good? Not really. Lucky? Probably.

When I wrote my brief analysis yesterday on Man U's loss to Swansea at Old Trafford... that'll never get old... I mentioned that they dominated possession, had outstanding passing percentages, took three times as many shots, and won two-thirds of their aerial duels, which is somewhat similar to Liverpool's performance today save shots.  The Reds were less dominate on possession though at only 56% compared to Mangoloid U's 60%.  Liverpool completed 86% of their passes, which goes without saying is excellent, and won 62% of aerial battles.  The big difference was shots.

Both Southampton and LFC took 12 shots, but the south coast side had 6 on target while Liverpool had one less.  If we allow 6 shots on target every match, we will be very fortunate to make the top 7, never mind top four or competing for the league.  Mignolet put in an outstanding performance today making some terrific saves.  With Reina gone, I just hope there aren't any repercussions from him slamming into the post on that save of Ward-Prowse's forever lobbing attempt on goal.  Brad Jones is capable, but I doubt he would have put in an equal performance.

Let's get the negative out of the way first so we can look into the magic mirror, hold hands, and color unicorns.  Johnson was a waste of space and honestly we would have done better with ten men.  He turned over the ball nearly half the times he touched it, his two shots had a better chance of hitting the hot dog man than finding the back of the net, and he passed the ball backward like he was challenging time travel.  Maybe he was trying to go back to three years ago when he wasn't as dreadful. Moreno should be ready to go next match, but if not, where's Enrique?

Speaking of fecal matter, Lucas and Allen were particularly foul, especially as the match wore on.  It was as if Lucas had just put on Allen's kit and continued his downward spiral.  The Brazilian hasn't played that poorly in a couple of seasons, maybe it was just part of his 'sell me to Napoli so I can be with me Uncle Benitez' plan.  I guess Rodgers felt Can wasn't ready to make his EPL debut, I don't see how he could do any worse than those two though.  Turnovers, indecisiveness on the ball, passing to Southampton players on crucial possessions... those aren't positive attributes for players who are supposed to be 'holding midfielders'.

Also, what happened to our defence? What happened to our field general and drill sergeant, Lovren?  It's not as if he hasn't played in the Premier League before.  Maybe he just felt sentimental towards his old club, hopefully that was the case, hopefully it's not a disease that defenders get now when they put on the LFC kit, and hopefully it has nothing to do with Rodgers' tactics.  If it's the latter, we are screwed, let'em rage, BR.  The bottom line is, our defence has to communicate better, at times they looked like a bunch of mud-wrestling Helen Kellers out there.

Finally, Coutinho had a poor match.  Every time he gained possession, he was corralled by the Saints defence and for the most part, failed to dribble or pass his way out of it.  He'd better get used to it though, he's got a target as big as Hiroshima on his back and if pressuring him takes him out of the equation, it's going to be awfully easy for opposing defences to make him a non-factor.  If there's one thing that he needs to understand is that it's okay for him to pass backward once in a while, especially when he has two or three defenders around him.  His passing today clearly suffered from trying to force things, his 76% completion rate was worst among Liverpool outfield players.

Our best players were Sterling and Gerrard with Henderson coming in third, though the latter's passing requires improvement.  Sterling should probably get man of the match just on being responsible for both goals, but Gerrard, as always, played his heart out with reckless abandon.  Our captain was all over the place defensively, and thankfully so since Lovren and Skrtel had a few momentary lapses of concentration, but the most impressive part of Gerrard's performance was his passing.  He completed 89% overall and was 10 of 13 on long passes, even though most were wasted.  Sturridge looked a little bit shaky there in the beginning and never really found his form, which is scary, but he'll come around.

Speaking of Sturridge, he once again came through with the match-winning goal.  The first match of the season and he already has a 'crucial' goal, something he did seven times last season.  And since we are on the subject, I really wish pundits and commentators would get a clue, Suarez was not as valuable as he seemed.  Yes, he scored goals, but most were meaningless, he scored exactly ZERO goals that broke a scoring draw, won, or drew a match for Liverpool last season.  Shut your ignorant pie holes, please.

Southampton deserves some credit as they were quite impressive.  They looked far from a relegation contending side, but will be a mid-table club, possibly finishing as high as seventh.  Tadić and Ward-Prowse were brilliant and I wrote prior to the match, if Clyne gets involved on attack, we could be in trouble.  Well, guess what? He did and he equalized a vivid passing display by the Saints.  In the end, Liverpool were lucky to get all three points, pulling this one off by the skin of their teeth.  We've got to improve defensively though because a master passer like Fabregas, Silva, or Ozil will tear us to pieces if we don't.

Six things learnt from LFC 2, Southampton 1

1 - Sterling can put on a Suarez-esque performance and make it meant something.  Our pint-sized powerhouse notched home the opening goal on a scintillating pass from Hendo and then got the game-winning assist on a header on to our poacher extraordinaire, the Studge.  Of all the goals and assists Suarez had last year, 31 and 12 just in case you forgot, only one assist gave Liverpool 3 points.  It took Sterling just one match to equal that this season.

2 - Sterling can put on a Suarez-esque performance, but that's not always a good thing.  His true turnover index was 17, which is about what his former teammate averaged per 90 minutes last season, but nobody cares as long as you produce goals.  The thing is Sterling is a better passer and he's 19.

3 - Speaking of cloaking a poor overall performance with a flash of brilliance, Jordan Henderson completed just 78% of his passes today (He's a career 83% passer and posted a career best 87.1% last season), was 0 for 2 on crosses, 2 of 6 on long balls, had 2 shots though none on-target, and was dispossessed 3 times.  That assist though and his tackling were enough to keep him off the shortlist for the Golden Rubbish Bin.

4 - Gerrard hasn't lost a step.  Our captain had a tackle, an interception, two clearances, created a chance, completed 89% of his passing, and was successful on 10 of 13 long balls.  Without him playing back, we would have probably allowed more goals.  Once again he proved his commitment and sacrifice to his club are unparalleled.

5 - Mignolet can be boss.  Let's hope he wants to be for 37 more league matches.  The save on Ward-Prowse's free kick and the tip that sent Pelle's shot off the post were simply class.  He did surprisingly well on set-pieces and corners as well, even though he seemed shaky at times.

6 - Manquillo is a bad ass.  His first Prem match and he commanded the right side of pitch like a ten year veteran.  He recorded 6 tackles, 5 clearances, 4 interceptions, a blocked shot, and completed 86% of his passes.

The return of Robo-Skrtel

Liverpool 2, Southampton 1: The match in stats
- Martin Skrtel had 20 clearances.  He led Liverpool and the league last season with 11.5 per 90 minutes and is well on his way to doing so again this season.  Lovren was second with 11 and Manquillo was third with 5.

- Skrtel also led the side in touches with 111, Manquillo was second with 109, and Lovren third with 86.

- Skrtel won the most aerial duels as well with 7 while Lovren was second with 6.

- Lovren led all players with an absolutely ridiculous passing rate of 96%, Skrtel was 2nd at 91%, and Gerrard third at 89%.

- Manquillo led the side with 6 tackles, Jordan Henderson was 2nd with 3.

- Gerrard completed 10 of 13 of long balls.  He lead all outfield Prem players last year with 257.

- Daniel Sturridge attempted 20 passes the entire match, Joe Allen attempted that many in 31 minutes.  Sturridge, a career 80% passer, completed 17 while Allen, a career 90% passer, completed 16.

- Raheem Sterling dribbled past 5 opponents, but was dispossessed 6 times.

-Rickie Lambert had more tackles, one, than Glen Johnson and Lucas Leiva combined.

- Every starter had at least one interception except Sturridge.  Lovren and Manquillo led the team with 4 a piece.

- No Liverpool player committed more than a single foul.  Thank you, Clattenburger.

- One of Glenn Johnson's shots landed in a rubbish bin, the other knocked an ice cream cone out of a six-year-old girl's hand.

- Lucas had a shot on target, created a chance, and dribbled past an opponent.  Either he passed a few bills to the statistician before the match or it's his Uncle Joenihno recording the numbers.

- The only other player to do as Lucas did above was Raheem Sterling, he had 3 shots on target and 2 key passes though.

Liverpool 1, Southampton 0: thoughts at the break

I don't think Koeman is 'parking the bus', but playing three defensive-minded midfielders and Southampton's overall 'conservative' approach is awfully close.  The goal, a brilliant pass by Hendo followed by a non-chalant tap through by Sterling, failed to open things up, the Saints remained disciplined, have not panicked, and have created chances to equalize.  Fortunately for Liverpool, though he has been shaky, Mignolet has come through on those occasions.

If this is the last chance for Lucas and Glen Johnson to prove their value to Rodgers, they've failed so far, Johnson especially.  The right back, playing left back, has gifted possession at least a third of the time he touches the ball.  I used to defend him, but he's clearly well past it.  I don't think he could get a match for, well, Southampton.  Unfortunately he's not doing much good for his value, it'll probably take a million pounds and a pizza for anyone to take him now.  Lucas has been much less dreadful, but at the same time, utterly useless.  Gerrard seems to be playing holding/defensive midfielder, so I don't see the point in having the Brazilian out there, Can offers much more going forward.

Speaking of poor performances, Coutinho is not in the midst of his best match by an ostrich mile.  In his defense though, he's been circled like sharks on a bloodied sea lion.  He's got to find some space out there if he's to be a factor in the second half.

Practically everyone else has played well, some great passing especially from Gerrard.  Manquillo has been all over the place and that card was complete rubbish.  If that was a card-worthy foul, half the Southampton side should be booked already, Bertrand especially.  And since we are talking about fouls, Sturridge should have gotten a free kick at the top of the box when Yoshida deliberately left his foot out to trip him.  That was just ridiculous.  Anyhow, second half about to start...

What the betting markets say: Liverpool vs Southampton

Percentage of bets placed:
Liverpool to win -240 71.17%
Draw +400 12.3%
Southampton to win +800 16.53%

First goalscorer:
Daniel Sturridge +333 52.99%
Dejan Lovren +2500 8.21%
Raheem Sterling +650 5.97%
Steven Gerrard +700 5.22%
Rickie Lambert +500 3.73%
Others 23.88%

Correct score:
Liverpool 2-0 +750 13.14%
Liverpool 2-1 +850 10.95%
Liverpool 4-0 +2000 7.3%
Liverpool 3-0 +1000 6.57%
Liverpool 3-2 +3000 6.57%
Other 55.47%

A couple of interesting surprises here, Southampton 1-0 not a popular choice and Liverpool 3-0 and 3-2 about even on bets placed.

Anytime goalscorer:
Sturridge -120 40.38%
Sterling +187 13.46%
Gerrard +260 11.54%
Lambert +137 9.62%
Coutinho +250 7.69%
Other 17.31%

Coutinho looks like a great bet here.

Man of the Match:
Sterling +600 61.11%
Coutinho +750 33.33%
Henderson +1200 2.78%
Lambert +1200 2.78%

No matter how well they play, Sterling and Henderson rarely get MotM honors.  Sturridge is the favorite at +500 though few seem to fancy him.  Lambert? Really? Wishful.

Interesting bets:
Sturridge hat-trick +2000
Sturridge score + Liverpool win +130
Liverpool to win by 1 +300

Bad bet:
Oussama Assaidi first goalscorer +700
The Moroccan  might have to buy his own ticket to the match if he's around.  Boylesports is the only site giving odds and will happily take your coin if you're feeling really, really, really lucky.

Crazy but why not? bet:
Kolo Toure first goalscorer +4000, to score +1400
It's surprising that the pay off for Toure as first goalscorer is so much higher than Assaidi considering the centre back does have a much better of chance of making the pitch, he's at least made the bench.

The Spanish-Senegalese 'Raheem Sterling' is there for the picking

Keita Baldé Diao is a 19-year-old Spanish forward of Senegalese descent, who is currently plying his trade at Italian club, SS Lazio.  He was brought up through the Barcelona youth system, but was loaned out to Cornellá after the 2009-10 season due to disciplinary reasons.  Unfortunately it worked against Barça as Keita refused to return and was sold to Lazio.

Keita finally broke through to the first team last season and did not disappoint.  In limited action, he scored 5 goals and posted 3 assists, but he impressed most in his decisiveness.  For a 19-year-old and a forward in general, he posted a fairly low true turnover index per 90 minutes of 9.93, a decent 82.5% successful pass rate, and a 54% shot accuracy percentage, which would have been tops on Liverpool last season.

Here is a stat comparison from last season of Sterling and him:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	tti90	gopd
Keita	0.33	0.20	0.52	1.63	0.120	0.825	9.93	0.07
Sterling	0.36	0.20	0.57	2.06	0.097	0.817	12.1	0.22

Their numbers are eerily similar save chances created 90 (cc90), chance created value (ccv), and true turnover index 90 (tti90).  A tti90 below 10 at his age and position is simply unheard of and a ccv a full 20 points above what is considered the average shows he is efficient and unselfish.

Should we buy him though? Well, word is Lazio want £24m for him, that seems a bit high, but he does have the potential to make that price still seem like a bargain years from now.  To add a player of his pace and skill doesn't come around that often.  Here's a video with horrible music to judge for yourself:

Liverpool 4 Borussia Dortmund 0: 5 things learnt

1. Dejan Lovren is the new Boss.  And a much needed one.  He took command of the defence and dared Borussia to attempt attack.  He is what we needed last season when Skrtel and Sakho doted around the field masquerading as defenders who really wanted to just score goals.  That's a bit harsh, but it's nice to be reminded what a centre back who is actually committed to playing defence looks like.  He reminds me of Carra except more athletic.

2. Coutinho is becoming Gerrardinho.  Is it just me or were some of those passes/flicks from the Brazilian very Gerrard-esque?  He's definitely been paying attention to his captain's methods of ball conveyance.  How he did not get chosen for his country for the World Cup is beyond me, but I'm glad he didn't get picked.  The time off probably did him some good.

3. Manquillo is probably already better than Glen Johnson.  No need to beat a dead horse, but me Uncle Joe is probably better than Glen Johnson.  I can't say I was impressed with Manquillo's performance even given the circumstance of just joining the club a couple of days ago, but at least he didn't turn over the ball every time he touched it.

4. We didn't need Gerrard to dictate attack.  And that is huge.  The less our captain has do on the attacking end of the pitch, the better we will be as a side.  If Sterling, Sturridge, Hendo, and Coutinho can dissect defences without the help of Stevie-G, he can concentrate on controlling the middle-third.  I don't think he'll ever be completely cut out of the picture, which nobody wants, but he's also not 26 anymore.  He has plenty of long passes and through balls in store. Though the only stat that should matter to him at this point in his career is league titles. Glory over goals.

5. Aubameyang was playing? The 25-year-old Gabonese striker was invisible today at Anfield.  He scored 13 goals in 26 league matches after coming over from AS Saint Etienne.  In France, he was finally coming into his own, scoring 35 goals in his last two seasons there.  I thought he might be a player worth looking at, before today, I'd pass.  It may have been a friendly, but he was inexistent today and failed to make even the slightest impact.

Liverpool 4, Dortmund 0: A lovely little pass around

What started out with the intensity of European football, slowly drowned itself in the atmosphere of a true friendly.  Most of our side glistened save the ever turnover prone and utterly useless Glen Johnson who refuses to let the match come to him and forces error after error.  He needs to benched, sold, drawn, and quartered.  Keep him off the pitch, Rodgers, please, at least until he returns to his form of three years ago.  He doesn't play defence and it's like being a man down every time he gifts the ball to the opposition, which is entirely too often.  Opposing managers must smile every time they see him take the pitch, he is always a counter goal waiting to happen.

The passing, for the love of Xabi, was absolutely brilliant.  We picked apart their defence like the Visigoths on Rome.  Pass after scintillating pass came from the feet of Gerrard, Sturridge, Coutinho, and Sterling, who found a better form in the second half, though far from his best.  That one looping lob from Gerrard that found Sterling down the left was harken of our captain's finest displays and the entire episode leading to Sturridge's assist to Hendo was artful, though the ball did go out.

Lovren was solid in the first half, but not really needed in the second.  In fact, we could have filled the back four with Salif Diaos and it wouldn't have mattered.  Fans seems to be smitten with Manquillo's performance, but I guess harder to impres because for me, he didn't do anything spectacular.  He was adequate and far better than Glen Johnson, but so was the hot dog man, me Gran, and that baby elephant. (It even looks like Glen Johnson, don't it?)  I'll withhold a verdict until he plays in a match that matters.

The bottom line is the matches don't count until next Sunday, but if we can play as we did today, natural-like and calculating, we will win a lot of matches.  The loss of Suarez put us at an advantage of sorts, defences won't know how to stop us.  Before, if you could stop El Conejo Loco, you had a good chance of beating us, but now we are more of a team.  If you stop Sturridge, we've got Sterling, then Coutinho, then Gerrard, then Hendo and so on and so forth, and we score on set-pieces, even more now with Lovre.  That's just scary.  If we are going to win the league though, we must not let one thing beat us, ourselves.  When the opposition scores and they will at times, we must maintain composure and believe we will still win no matter the circumstance.

Liverpool 2, Dortmund 0: Thoughts at the break, panic on the streets of Merseyside

Victor Moses, Abel Xavier, Gabby Paletta, and Mark Gonalez, what do all these Liverpool legends have in common?  They scored on their LFC debut and their goals actually counted.  Iago Aspas scored in his first pre-season match and we all know where it went from there.  It was nice for Lovren to be gifted a set-piece goal on his debut, but at the end of the day, meaningless.  He has been impressive though.

When it's your first match for your new club, regardless if it's preseason or not, and you are shouting 'orders' at your new teammates, that's impressive.  Lovren brings a much-needed presence to the club, someone who is not afraid to take command and responsibility for his side's result.  Carragher had that fire as did Reina in his first few years at the club, last season it was only Gerrard and even he wavered from even a few seasons ago.

Coutinho has been our best player so far, that assist was class and Gerrard-esque.  It's good to see the Brazilian is paying attention to his captain's endless talents.  I can't really say the same for Sterling who has been wasteful to say the least.  He has to do better when he's one-on-one on the box.  Studge is being Studge, as long as he's healthy, he's a threat to score every match.

This is about as close to European football that a friendly can get.  I'm relatively confident this isn't Dortmund's best eleven, but they have been 'spritely'.  Their pace, quickness, and passing has been trying, but our defence, save Glen Johnson on two legs and not his ass, has shut down their every opportunity.  I'm hoping Kelly or me Uncle Joe comes on in the second half for our challenged fullback.

The rest of the side has been 'adequate' but going up 2-0 in the first fifteen minutes seemed to take a little off from both sides.  Since then, Dortmund seems less driven to score and Liverpool more content to take the result.  Hopefully it'll open up in the second half and we'll see another goal or two from Liverpool.  It would be especially nice to see Lambert find the back of the net.

Is this free 'World Class' striker the solution?

It's getting to the point that almost any signing that can contribute more than Aspas did last season will have to do, but what if there were a proven, experienced striker still out there and he wouldn't cost Liverpool a dime?  Well, there is, and his name is Samuel Eto'o.

For those who think that the Cameroonian legend is past it, look no further than his production last season for Chelsea.  He may be 33, but he's still got the ability to post respectable numbers.  Here's his output from last season:

npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	pass%	sacc%	shot%	tti90	gopd
0.62	0.14	0.76	1.53	0.761	0.441	0.153	11.3	0.02

He basically created three goals every four matches, not too bad for an 'old man', and he turned over the ball less than Sterling or Suarez.

Apparently he is currently in talks with Ajax, which is interesting because he allegedly was asking too high of wages from interested clubs.  Ajax is not going to pay him an exorbitant salary and LFC could easily pay him more.

He would obviously just be around for a season, which may not appeal to him, but he's only needed to 'buy time' until Origi returns or another long term option is found.  I really don't see what we have to lose, if he ends up a failure, oh well, we got him on a free, if he makes a splash, he was a 'genius buy'.  Even if he repeats his output from last season, 9 goals and 2 assists in about fourteen-and-a-half matches worth of minutes, it'll be well worth sigining him up.

Striker solution? This 'once-linked', former Barça prospect, could be a quality buy

Despite being 'pre-season' and meaningless, last night's match exposed our need for another striker.  Waiting for the magical boots to turn on and make Lambert the answer just won't hack it.  The problem is there isn't much else out there, certainly nothing of Suarez' class.  We may have to 'settle' for a forward with 'potential' and most likely risk funds to do so.  One of these players is Celta Vigo's Nolito, who we've been linked to in years past.

The 27-year-old forward/winger first came to prominence playing for Segunda División B side, Écija Balompié.  His performances helped lead Écija to the league title, catching the eye of Barcelona B scouts, where he would transfer to in July 2008.  There he scored 29 goals in 108 appearances, helping them get promoted to the Segundo División for the first time this century.

Seeing the pitch just three times for the senior side, he turned down a contract offer in summer 2011 and was transferred to Benfica for £2.2m.  His first year with the Portuguese club was somewhat successful, scoring 15 goals in all competitions and helping the club win the Taça de Liga.  He also scored in his first five consecutive league matches, tying Eusébio's record for goals by a debut player in Primeira Liga.

Unfortunately the honeymoon ended and Nolito found himself as fourth choice forward at the start of 2012-13 season.  After only 6 appearances and 188 minutes the first half of the year, he was loaned to Granada CF in the January transfer window.  At the Andalusian club, he created lots of chances, but only managed one assist to go with his 3 goals, but garnered enough interest to earn a transfer to Celta Vigo for £2.2m.

His stats for the La Liga club last season are not mind-blowing, but somewhat impressive considering it was his first season there and he wasn't exactly surrounded by world class talent:

npg90	gc90	cc90	sacc%	shot%	TTI90	gopd
0.48	0.63	1.94	41.18%	14.12%	11.5	0.29

Nolito seems to set up lots of chances for his teammates no matter where he plays, just imagine what he could do with the likes of Sturridge, Sterling, and Coutinho around him.  He also doesn't waste shot opportunities nor turnover the ball at a ridiculous rate, hence his 11.5 TTI90.  The most impressive stat though is his goals on pitch difference 90 of 0.29, when he wasn't on the pitch, Celta Vigo was destined to lose with a team gopd of -0.13.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old Spaniard is not just a poacher, but can contribute in many ways.  Other than setting others up, he is also a decent tackler, averaging 2.34 successful tackles per 90 minutes at a 48.4% rate.  He's valued at around £5m, which if we could get him for anything close, would be steal.  Recently, he said if Barcelona came calling, he would leave, I wonder if that applies to other 'big' clubs. 

Liverpool 2, Man City 2: A 'Sterling' performance

It is only the preseason, but that second half was some entertaining football.  I had to go and praise Coates in the first half, only to have him let me down in the second.  The Uruguayan defender couldn't really do much more save 'take out' Jovetic on the first goal and risk penalty.  Had Gerrard not deflected the ball into the Montenegrin's grasp, Mignolet would have probably scooped up the attempt.  It did slightly expose what became very apparent on the second goal, Coates needs to get stronger.  If he allows forwards to out-muscle him like the Man City forward did on his second score, he'll never make it in the Premiership.

As for the rest of the side, Sterling was the absolute game-changer.  If there ever was a sign of his world class potential, it was his very apparent ability to make his teammates look so much better, especially Henderson, who was having a rubbish bin match before our Raheem came on.  Not to take anything away from Henderson's brilliant finish, but it was Sterling's pass to Sturridge that set up the goal.  Beginning with an excellent set-up for Jack Robinson, which should have produced a better attempt on goal, Sterling provided chance after chance, terrorizing Man City down the left side of the pitch.

Sterling allowed a change in style of play, from a long-ball, centralized approach in the first half, to a possession-based, bring the ball up the flanks in the second.  Well, I should say bring it up the left flank that is, hardly anybody was on the right save Glen Johnson, who did himself no favors when it comes to his critics.  Even when he made a positive contribution, which was rare in itself, he would sure enough mangle it.

Lucas and Can were bright spots as well.  Lucas, in his cameo appearance, neutralized Touré,  provided the brilliant assist to Sterling on the equalizer, and scored the winning penalty.  He provided a sense of 'calm' the team needed to get back into the match.  Can was simply a beast, roaming around central midfield causing havoc for City and making smart possession-based passes.  His style of play is very similar to the box-to-box midfielder prototype that is Yaya Touré, if he can reach those heights, we'll have many years of success to come.

By the way, when did Micah Richards become such a school girl princess?  Before the match, I would have gladly had him come to Liverpool, but his wincing and whining, particularly after being man-handled by Can, has provided second thoughts.  He did more complaining than positive contributing, which is something we don't need.

Also what was going on with the pitch?  I realize it was played on a baseball field, but had this match been scheduled for the Prem or European football, it would have probably been abandoned due to horrendous conditions.  I don't know if the grass was too long or just the wrong kind, but especially in the first half, proper ball movement took an extra effort, which could have lead to a muscle strain or hamstring pull.  The stability in the 'infield' area was also questionable with a few players slipping, maybe that's why Liverpool avoided that side of the pitch in the second half.

Ultimately, this was a meaningless preseason match, despite what Guinness and Fox wants us to believe.  If Sterling can perform this well through-out the season, we'll be contenders until the end.  If Coates can play like he did in the first half, we have another option at centre back.  One thing I'm certain of, as they have both shown it the last two seasons, Henderson and Allen can play much better than they did, but Lambert and Sturridge will have to produce goals for us to have a chance at the title.

Steven Gerrard, King of the APEs

Attacking Possession Efficiency that is.  I haven't been posting much lately because I've been working on a lot of stats projects.  One of these is APE.  APE measures how efficient a player is in possession.  It takes in account all positive results from possession and gives relative value to these results and then divides this number by total individual possessions.  A goal is given four times the value of a completed pass and shot on goal, while an assist is given double value to a chance created.  Here is Liverpool's top ten APE from last season (the team APE was 0.43563):

Gerrard	0.46478
Henderson	0.46115
Skrtel	0.45314
Coutinho	0.45302
Suarez	0.45268
Johnson	0.44870
Lucas	0.44444
Sterling	0.43388
Sakho	0.42635
Sturridge	0.42570

Skrtel was more efficient than Suarez? Yes, because he did more with less possession and turned over the ball much less, which is essentially what this stat measures.

I also created a Positive Possession Result Quality, which gives value to the quality of positive result compared to overall 'stripped-down' results. The top ten PPRQ for Liverpool last year (the team average was 0.52788):

Suarez	0.62686
Sturridge	0.60947
Sterling	0.56348
Coutinho	0.54459
Gerrard	0.53748
Henderson	0.52640
Allen	0.51978
Johnson	0.51628
Flanagan	0.51585
Skrtel	0.51147

This basically means that Suarez produced a higher quality result (goal or assist) 62.686% of the time, that shouldn't be much a surprise.  

James Milner: A sad waste of talent and probably now a waste of funds

Following his break-out season at Aston Villa in 2009-10, James Milner seemed destined to do great things, then he signed with Man City.  Instead of developing into a top player for Villa and possibly becoming captain of the Brum club, he has settled for a secondary role at City where he finds himself starting on the bench in 48.9% (68 of 139) of matches he is available and of those, he didn't even make the pitch in 35.2% (24 of 68).

He has won two league titles, an FA Cup, and a League Cup at City though, and has shown what it means to be a true team player, even at the expense of his own evolution. It's admirable in some ways, but I doubt Milner envisioned being a squad player when he originally signed with Man City.  His last season with Villa, at the age of 24, he was finally coming into his own:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
7	12	69	0.11	0.54	1.96	0.34
pass%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrp90	sacc%	shot%
75.6	58.2	35.7	32.6	0.71	34.8	10.6
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	adw90	adw%
1.8	0.91	0.97	0.4	2.64	0.43	28.8
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
17.4	16.9	1.39	1.05	0.34	0.34	0

First, the bad, his 16.9 true turnover index per 90 minutes played is unimpressive to say the least.  He has improved since joining City, reaching a career best of 10.1 in 2011-12 and a 11.4 rate last season, that's on par with Henderson (9.7), Gerrard (10.9), Coutinho (11), and Sterling (12.1). Also, for a player who is characterized as 'strong' when it comes to aerial duels, his won per 90 of 0.43 at a 28.8% success rate is well below the league average of 1.46 at 50%.

His 12 assists that season was third best in the league and his chance created value of 17.4 was well above the league average of 9.2. While normally a goals on pitch difference of 0 is nothing to brag about, in his case it shows that he WAS the team.  Despite losing Gareth Barry the summer prior, Villa still improved their point totals and goal difference from the previous season, and the season after Milner joined City, the Villans plummeted to 9th place, a -24 goal difference, and accumulated 16 less points.

For Liverpool to consider a transfer for the 28-year-old, a what-have-you-done-lately approach is what matters.  Here are his stats from last season where he made only 12 starts, 19 sub-ins, for a total of 1375 minutes:

g	a	ch	npg90	gc90	cc90	ap90
1	3	29	0.07	0.26	1.9	0.2
pass%	bp%	lb%	tb%	cr%	sdrbp90	sdrb%	sacc%	shot%
84	46.4	60	66.6	19.1	1.18	43.9	24	4
intp90	clrp90	drbp90	bs90	tp90	tack%	adw90	adw%
0.65	1.44	1.11	0.06	2.03	50.9	1.05	35.6
ccv	TTI90	gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd
10.3	11.4	2.22	1.24	0.98	1.71	-0.73

A regression to say the least, especially considering the quality of his teammates.  His passing has improved, as has his turnover rate, but not much else, and his goals on pitch difference is alarming.  For a midfielder known for playing solid defence, it certainly doesn't look like he's a much of a factor in preventing opponents from scoring.

Milner could have been a legend at Villa, but instead he rots away on the City bench with opportunities becoming more scarce as younger, more creative options surround him and his club have all the funds in the world to go after more if needs be.  The problem is he'll find himself in a similar situation if Liverpool acquire him.  His versatility does play into it a little since he can cover for Glen Johnson at RB, but he won't be much of an improvement.  It really comes down to how cheap City will let him go, anything more than £8m has to be a deal-breaker.

Rising French star to 'replace' Suarez

Alexandre Lacazette is a 23-year-old forward who plays for Lyon in Ligue 1 and the France national football team.  He's got great ball skills, passing vision, and is a solid finisher.  Last season he came into his own, netting 15 goals in 36 appearances.  Here is his output from that campaign:

npgp90	gcp90	ccp90	ap90	ccv
0.47	0.56	1.27	0.09	7.3
pass%	bp%	sacc%	shot%	TTI90
77.3	52.9	47.6	17.9	11.2
gsp90	gap90	gop90	tgop	gopd90
1.58	1.09	0.49	0.32	0.17

At first glance, that chance created value is dismal.  It basically means he is not setting up his teammates with good looks at goal or his teammates take bad shots or they are horrible finishers.  The fact that his teammates took 51% of their shots outside of the box leads me to believe answer number two is most likely why his ccv was so poor.  Still, it's an area in need of improvement.

His passing could see some development as well, a 52.9% back pass percentage tells me that his 77.3% passing rate is misleading, but at least he isn't turning over the ball at an obscene rate.  An 11.2 true turnover index is about what Sterling and Coutinho post.

There are other positives, he is only 23 and will only probably only cost about £16m.  I don't know if we necessarily need him though and maybe another year at Lyon would be best for all.  If he can improve on last season and score 20+ goals, he probably won't go up in value more than £25m, but he'll be a proven talent, not just a flash in the pan. A 'replacement' for Suarez though? I think not.

Here is a video of him that shows his fancy footwork. 

Wilfried Bony: All is fair in love and transfers, Spurs

Wilfried Bony had a pretty impressive first year in England, more impressive than most who come over from the Eredivisie.  Suarez didn't have that kind of year, not even close, neither did Christian Eriksen, though he was relatively close.  The most impressive thing about Bony's season was how much he got better as the season progressed.  He scored 12 goals and set up 3 more in the final 19 Prem matches.  In fact, he scored 5 and had 1 assist in the final 4.

Latest reports are that we are trying to 'hijack' Spurs bid for Bony.  Well, if that's not tongue-in-cheek, Sigurdsson anyone? I am all for signing the 25-year-old Ivorian striker, but not for the reportedly £40m that Swansea is asking.  That truly is mental.  Anything more than £35m would be too much risk of funds.

So how does he compare to let's say Sturridge?

	Bony	Sturridge
app(subs)	27(7)	26(3)
mins	2470	2267
p90	27.4	25.2
goals	16	21
assist	4	7
chances	25	29
npgp90	0.44	0.83
gcp90	0.73	1.1
ccp90	0.91	1.2
ap90	0.15	0.28
ccv	16.5	23.3
pass%	74.1	79.3
bp%	49.6	53.4
sacc%	37	42.4
shot%	14.8	21.2
TTI90	15.3	11
gap90	1.5	1.23
gsp90	1.62	2.7
gop90	0.12	1.47
tgop	0	1.32

Stat definitions can be found here.

Sturridge takes nearly every category save back pass percentage, but Bony is not far off.  Not bad for a first year Prem player compared to a well seasoned one.  If history stays true to itself, Bony will have an even better second season now that he's adapted to the English game and way of lifestyle.  He'll post even more impressive numbers with teammates like Sturridge, Coutinho, Sterling, and Gerrard, a luxury he did not have in Swansea.

One thing he can forget about is taking pens.  He enjoyed the padding of his stats last season with four of them, for us he will be at least third in line behind Gerrard and Sturridge, with Coutinho probably getting the nod over him if the Brazilian is on the pitch.

Will his signing actually happen? I'm not holding my breathe, but if does, suck it Tottenham.

https://docs.google.com/uc?export=download&id=0B0oQNIr-YdiyVWVyY2t3T2R3VVE