Thursday, August 14, 2014

WWKD: What would Klopp do? The Luis Suarez replacement edition

It is no secret that Borussia Dortmund manager, Jürgen Klopp, is a mad genius when it comes to signing players.  He created his two-time Bundesliga-winning side by throwing together a motley crew of after-thoughts, 'big' club rejects, and lower-tier league stars.  It made me wonder whom he would go after to replace Suarez.

He was actually in a somewhat similar situation having lost Robert Lewandowski to Bayern Munich this summer.  Klopp replaced the 25-year-old Polish striker with Capocannoniere winner, Cirro Immobile of Torino.  Bit of an odd choice for Klopp, but unlike Rodgers, the German no longer has the luxury to develop players.  That's what two titles and a trip the Champions League finals does to supporter's expectations, but what if it was 2010?

That's when Klopp bought Lewandowski, a little known striker who was coming off a stellar season with Lech Poznán, when he lead the Ekstraklasa in goals scored.  He wasn't really replacing anyone, even though Nelson Valdez left the club that summer, but Klopp knew that the 54 goals his club scored the season before would never be enough to win the league.  Lucas Barrios, the team's leading scorer with 19 goals in his first season, stayed on, while Shinji Kagawa was also added.

So basically Klopp would be looking for a star player in a league that has similar style of play.  Call me cray, but the player that probably fits the bill best is Stevie May of St. Johstone in the SPL.  The 21-year-old striker has produced at every level he has played.   In 2011-12, he was loaned out to Alloa Athletic of the Scottish Third Division, where he scored 22 goals in 19 matches.  The season before last, he spent loaned at Hamilton Academical, where he found the net 25 times in 33 matches.  Last year he was one of the leading scorers in the SPL with 20 goals for the Saints.

May has an uncanny style of play, he doesn't possess great pace, but he's quick and tricky on the ball.  He also has a keen sense when to let loose, scoring goals by catching opposition defence and keepers off guard with swift and odd-angled shots.  He is also a decent passer of the ball, tying for his club lead with 5 assists.

Unfortunately, Sheffield Wednesday got to him first, but that could be a good thing.  If he continues to perform in the Championship as he has in every league he's played, Rodgers would be mental not to snatch him up.  I honestly would go ahead and buy the 21-year-old Scot and then loan him back to Wednesday.  He just seems to be one of those players who's style baffles not only opponents, but supporters as well.

Here's a video of all his goals from last season:

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

A future Asian star who could solve our striker issues

Heung-Min Son is a 22-year-old South Korean forward, currently signed to Bayer Leverkusen.  He came to Germany six years earlier as a youth player for Hamburger SV.  In 2010, he made his Bundesliga debut, 'breaking the duck' in his first match for HSV versus 1. FC Köln.  After three seasons for the fading club, he transferred to Leverkusen, where last season he posted his best numbers to date.

That is what is most impressive about Son, he not only has improved each season, he also seems to be adding weapons to his already abundant arsenal.  He has always possessed explosive pace, excellent ball control/passing skills, and a keen sense of awareness on attack, but now his 'specialized' passing and shot accuracy have improved significantly over the years.

Here are his 'regular stats' from the past four seasons:
npg90ap90gc90cc90ccvpass%sdr90tti90gopd
2010-110.370.000.370.370.0000.7712.5012.730.05
2011-120.370.070.441.030.0710.7842.7911.540.35
2012-130.400.070.470.840.0800.7741.5410.78-0.15
2013-140.380.150.531.290.1180.8013.2710.340.05

...and here are his 'specialized' passing and shot percentages:
cr90cr%lb90lb%sacc%shot%
2010-110.120.0770.500.4440.3680.158
2011-120.220.2730.740.6250.3060.139
2012-130.070.1111.310.7220.4490.154
2013-140.650.3091.250.8050.4580.120
He has improved each season in nearly every stat with his true turnover index 90 showing a maturation that I'm not sure if I've seen before.  His goal-scoring has been consistent, though he'll need to show  improvement there and in creating goals in general (assists) to reach the next level.  The 'specialized' passing I mentioned above, particularly his successful cross and long ball percentage from last season are already respectable rates, who knows how accurate he can become?  That's the thing, he has all-world potential, but he'll have to move to a bigger club with better players to reach it.

His last season with HSV makes this point.  They lost arguably their three best attacking players in Mladen Petric, Paolo Guerrero, and Gohkan Tore the summer prior.  Van Der Vaart and Artjom Rudnevs were added, but the damage was done.  Son had to become a major factor instead of fourth-choice on attack and even though he put up decent numbers, he was as unprepared as any 20-year-old you expect would be.  His move to Leverkusen gave him 'more room to breathe' and it showed in his performances.

Buying him now may be a bit premature, but I still think he'll excel in Rodgers' system with the likes of our players.  He is valued at around £12m, but Leverkusen would not even think about selling for any offer less than £20m.  Son is going to be good, possibly great at times, for the next 8-10 years, so as a long term investment that's pennies.  The odds of this happening though? Bleak to none.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Take note United, Moreno transfer is how it's done

If reports are true and we have captured 22-year-old left back Alberto Moreno from Sevilla for £12m, Ian Ayre has outdone himself because that's a solid piece of business.  The original asking price was €20m or £15.9m, but months of negotiating dwindled it down, though I am sure there is some fine print of add-ons and possible transfer fee reductions of Iago Aspas if they choose to keep him.  Instead of being like United and just breaking out the check book, compromise appeared to have actually taken place, and we got a player at a fair price, though he could become a 'steal' down the road.

On top of his defensive abilities, Moreno has the dribbling and passing skills to make a tremendous impact on attack as well.  It's his acumen, his ability to discern and anticipate his opponent's next move that is most impressive and helps him shut'em down. His pace and vigor will benefit him on both sides of the pitch and are definitely Premier league quality.

The stats from his two seasons at Sevilla show different sides of his skill spectrum.  In his first season he excelled on defence and the second he improved his attacking numbers though seemingly at the cost of his defensive contribution:

yrgc90cc90ps%bp%tti90gopdtkl90tkl%int90clr90adw90adw%
13-140.110.710.7890.3658.62-0.151.94.3962.721.641.940.500
12-130.080.670.7810.45100.732.42.3783.833.501.920.478

He improved in nearly every attacking category, but slagged off a little on defense.  His improvement in backpass percentage and true turnover index per 90 minutes was quite impressive.  The drop in tackles, interceptions, and clearances per 90 minutes are disappointing and hopefully just a one year slump.  The drastic decline in his goals-on-pitch is alarming, hopefully going from a very impressive 0.73 to a -0.15 is just a glitch and he becomes a positive influence once again.

If he can get back to his first season numbers in the first third and continue his improvement in the opponent's, he'll be well-worth his reasonable price tag.  At least we didn't pay £30m for him, Shaw will have to put up at least twice the numbers of Moreno to prove he's worth that much.

Eto'o just as good as Van Persie last season

I don't understand why so many Liverpool fans are against signing Eto'o on a free.  The arguments of his 'loss of pace' are grossly over-exaggerated if not unproven and defining him as a 'mercenary' is just delusionary.  Welcome to modern football, swallow your pride or go back to being a mid-table club.

What's even more pathetic are United fans joking about Liverpool possibly signing the 32-year-old Cameroonian.  Eto'o was just as good as Van Persie last year, but that would take intelligence to understand and I don't give the Manc mongoloids that much credit.  Here is a comparison of their stats from last season:

npg90ap90gc90cc90pass%sacc%shot%tti90gopd90gopd
Eto'o0.620.140.761.530.7610.4410.15311.31.180.02
RVP0.570.170.860.970.7670.3390.16110.50.40-0.15

Eto'o scored more non-penalty goals and created more chances per 90 minutes played.  The most damning stat is their value to their respective clubs, Eto'o may not have been the 'world class' goal scorer he once was, but at least he didn't have a negative effect on his team's performance.  Van Persie's -0.15 goals on pitch difference suggests he was detrimental toward Man United's winning efforts.  Seems like the joke's on Man United as they are definitely going to keep a 31-year-old striker who is often injured and failed to help his side's seventh place cause last season.  I guess it's good they won't be venturing far from home next season.

Monday, August 11, 2014

The top 5 worst possible forward transfers

Note that these are, or were, actual targets unlike Michael Chopra, Andy Carroll, or my cousin Leroy.

5. Salomon Kalou
Salomon Kalou is a conundrum.  Is he any good? Was he ever good?  When he transferred from Feyenoord to Chelsea in 2006, he was coming off two productive years where he scored 42 goals in 80 matches in all competitions.  Interestingly enough, his strike mate at the Eredivisie club was Dirk Kuyt, who scored 61 goals in 82 matches over that same span.  Read the rest of this post here

4. Ezequiel Lavezzi
Ezequiel Lavezzi is like a fine wine, he's gotten better with age, but is he good enough to help Liverpool win?  He doesn't score many goals, he has more than his fair share of turnovers, and he's an average passer at best, though he does make his passes count.  Over the past five seasons, he has a 2.03 chances created per 90 and a chance created value of 10.67%, both above average numbers in any league. Read more of this post here

3. Jay Rodriguez
Jay Rodriguez isn't worth £1.9m, yet alone 19! That is absurd.  There just can't be any truth to Rodgers being interested in him.  If so, somebody needs to set his head right, because that's certifiable. Are these stats worthy of a £19m attacking midfielder/winger/forward? To see his stats and read the rest of this post, go here.

2. Mauro Icardi
I don't really get all the hoopla about Icardi, other than stealing fellow teammate's wives and having a decent though far from amazing career goal scoring rate of 0.5 per 90 minutes, there is nothing statistically impressive about him.  He's not a good passer (68% pass completion rate) nor creator for his teammates (0.92 chances created per 90 minutes) and he can't even dribble past defenders in the pace-challenged Serie A (0.5 successfull dribbles per 90 at a 20% success rate).  Inter want £24m for him, even if he leaves his wife in Italy, that's entirely too much for potential alone.

1. Fred
I was browsing message boards the other day, for self-esteem reasons of course, when I found quite a few 'pro-Fred' postings.  At first I thought that there must be some younger, lesser known Brazilian striker going by that same moniker, but apparently not.  (Yes, I am aware of the Brazilian attacking midfielder at Shaktar Donetsk.)  Honestly, I was shocked to see supporters backing his purchase, did they watch the World Cup? He was absolutely useless.

On top of that, even if he posted 'World Class' stats, which he doesn't (about a goal scored every other match, good but not great, and average passing stats at best), it would take a boatload of cash to get him to leave Brazil.  That's surprising considering what happened there this summer.  His stay at Lyon left a bad taste in his mouth regarding European football and made him homesick, I don't think he'll find himself in a much better situation anywhere in England.

The Transfer Rubbish Bin: Moreno likely? Di Maria Possible? Agger gone?

Sevilla club president Juan Castro has proclaimed that Liverpool have not yet met his club's evaluation for Alberto Moreno.  They want closer to £20m for the 22-year-old left back and LFC apparently have offer £14-16m plus bonuses.  The Mirror is reporting that the deal will be done after Sevilla play Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup match tomorrow.  Not sure why that matters because unless they sign another left back by the then, they won't have a true one to replace Moreno if he's sold.  Navarro and possibly Vitolo can 'cover' there, but neither are 'true' left backs.

Recovered from World Cup injury, Angel Di Maria has reported to Real Madrid despite grumblings that he desires to leave.  If he plays tomorrow in the UEFA Super Cup, it'll raise a few eyebrows.  Paris St. Germain would be the likeliest destination, but unless they rid themselves of a couple of 'A' list players, Lavezzi and Cavani in particular, they can't buy the 26-year-old winger due to their settlement agreement with the CFCB of UEFA.  That's a scintillating read, by the way.  Apparently Man United are the current favorites and are preparing a £55m bid for the Argentine. That is way too much, even for a player of Di Maria's class.  Is he part English? His market value according to transfermarkt.co.uk is £44m. Other than dinero, I can't see him walking into a starting spot for us like he would at United.  Would you sit Sterling or Coutinho for him? Not I, though we could play him in the hole which would take time away from Henderson and make Lallana's transfer even more irrelevant.  Considering he wants out of Real Madrid because the additions of James Rodriguez and Toni Kroos will severely cut into his pitch time, United would be better for him.  One can dream though.

Daniel Agger is apparently broken and bent.  So much so that he has gone 'tearfully begging' to Rodgers for a transfer.  It's a nice story and may hold some truth, but doubtful.  Sure, the 29-year-old centre back has been utilized considerably less the last couple of seasons, but he is still quality and we will need him as insurance, in case of injury to others. Their are also a ton of fixtures to be played next 'year' and the more coverage, the better off we'll be.  I hope we do whatever is necessary to hold on to our Vice Captain.  Good news is Rodgers has claimed that there have not been any approaches for the Dagger.

There is also word in the cyberspace that a 'huge' signing is coming.  Hopefully it isn't Cavani or Lavezzi or god help me, Mauro Icardi.  None of those players will be very helpful to us and considering Rodger's distaste for Andy Carroll, Cavani's style of play is quite similar though somewhat superior.  The Uruguyuan will problem come at an exorbitant price as well.  I also don't think Moreno can be considered a 'big deal' either, he is quality and may one day be considered 'world class', but he is years from that now.  Then who could be? Cuadrado? Reus? Fred? I just puked.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

The Spanish-Senegalese 'Raheem Sterling' is there for the picking

Keita Baldé Diao is a 19-year-old Spanish forward of Senegalese descent, who is currently plying his trade at Italian club, SS Lazio.  He was brought up through the Barcelona youth system, but was loaned out to Cornellá after the 2009-10 season due to disciplinary reasons.  Unfortunately it worked against Barça as Keita refused to return and was sold to Lazio.

Keita finally broke through to the first team last season and did not disappoint.  In limited action, he scored 5 goals and posted 3 assists, but he impressed most in his decisiveness.  For a 19-year-old and a forward in general, he posted a fairly low true turnover index per 90 minutes of 9.93, a decent 82.5% successful pass rate, and a 54% shot accuracy percentage, which would have been tops on Liverpool last season.

Here is a stat comparison from last season of Sterling and him:
npg90ap90gc90cc90ccvpass%tti90gopd
Keita0.330.200.521.630.1200.8259.930.07
Sterling0.360.200.572.060.0970.81712.10.22

Their numbers are eerily similar save chances created 90 (cc90), chance created value (ccv), and true turnover index 90 (tti90).  A tti90 below 10 at his age and position is simply unheard of and a ccv a full 20 points above what is considered the average shows he is efficient and unselfish.

Should we buy him though? Well, word is Lazio want £24m for him, that seems a bit high, but he does have the potential to make that price still seem like a bargain years from now.  To add a player of his pace and skill doesn't come around that often.  Here's a video with horrible music to judge for yourself:


Liverpool 4 Borussia Dortmund 0: 5 things learnt

1. Dejan Lovren is the new Boss.  And a much needed one.  He took command of the defence and dared Borussia to attempt attack.  He is what we needed last season when Skrtel and Sakho doted around the field masquerading as defenders who really wanted to just score goals.  That's a bit harsh, but it's nice to be reminded what a centre back who is actually committed to playing defence looks like.  He reminds me of Carra except more athletic.

2. Coutinho is becoming Gerrardinho.  Is it just me or were some of those passes/flicks from the Brazilian very Gerrard-esque?  He's definitely been paying attention to his captain's methods of ball conveyance.  How he did not get chosen for his country for the World Cup is beyond me, but I'm glad he didn't get picked.  The time off probably did him some good.

3. Manquillo is probably already better than Glen Johnson.  No need to beat a dead horse, but me Uncle Joe is probably better than Glen Johnson.  I can't say I was impressed with Manquillo's performance even given the circumstance of just joining the club a couple of days ago, but at least he didn't turn over the ball every time he touched it.

4. We didn't need Gerrard to dictate attack.  And that is huge.  The less our captain has do on the attacking end of the pitch, the better we will be as a side.  If Sterling, Sturridge, Hendo, and Coutinho can dissect defences without the help of Stevie-G, he can concentrate on controlling the middle-third.  I don't think he'll ever be completely cut out of the picture, which nobody wants, but he's also not 26 anymore.  He has plenty of long passes and through balls in store. Though the only stat that should matter to him at this point in his career is league titles. Glory over goals.

5. Aubameyang was playing? The 25-year-old Gabonese striker was invisible today at Anfield.  He scored 13 goals in 26 league matches after coming over from AS Saint Etienne.  In France, he was finally coming into his own, scoring 35 goals in his last two seasons there.  I thought he might be a player worth looking at, before today, I'd pass.  It may have been a friendly, but he was inexistent today and failed to make even the slightest impact.

Liverpool 4, Dortmund 0: A lovely little pass around

What started out with the intensity of European football, slowly drowned itself in the atmosphere of a true friendly.  Most of our side glistened save the ever turnover prone and utterly useless Glen Johnson who refuses to let the match come to him and forces error after error.  He needs to benched, sold, drawn, and quartered.  Keep him off the pitch, Rodgers, please, at least until he returns to his form of three years ago.  He doesn't play defence and it's like being a man down every time he gifts the ball to the opposition, which is entirely too often.  Opposing managers must smile every time they see him take the pitch, he is always a counter goal waiting to happen.

The passing, for the love of Xabi, was absolutely brilliant.  We picked apart their defence like the Visigoths on Rome.  Pass after scintillating pass came from the feet of Gerrard, Sturridge, Coutinho, and Sterling, who found a better form in the second half, though far from his best.  That one looping lob from Gerrard that found Sterling down the left was harken of our captain's finest displays and the entire episode leading to Sturridge's assist to Hendo was artful, though the ball did go out.

Lovren was solid in the first half, but not really needed in the second.  In fact, we could have filled the back four with Salif Diaos and it wouldn't have mattered.  Fans seems to be smitten with Manquillo's performance, but I guess harder to impres because for me, he didn't do anything spectacular.  He was adequate and far better than Glen Johnson, but so was the hot dog man, me Gran, and that baby elephant. (It even looks like Glen Johnson, don't it?)  I'll withhold a verdict until he plays in a match that matters.

The bottom line is the matches don't count until next Sunday, but if we can play as we did today, natural-like and calculating, we will win a lot of matches.  The loss of Suarez put us at an advantage of sorts, defences won't know how to stop us.  Before, if you could stop El Conejo Loco, you had a good chance of beating us, but now we are more of a team.  If you stop Sturridge, we've got Sterling, then Coutinho, then Gerrard, then Hendo and so on and so forth, and we score on set-pieces, even more now with Lovre.  That's just scary.  If we are going to win the league though, we must not let one thing beat us, ourselves.  When the opposition scores and they will at times, we must maintain composure and believe we will still win no matter the circumstance.

Liverpool 2, Dortmund 0: Thoughts at the break, panic on the streets of Merseyside

Victor Moses, Abel Xavier, Gabby Paletta, and Mark Gonalez, what do all these Liverpool legends have in common?  They scored on their LFC debut and their goals actually counted.  Iago Aspas scored in his first pre-season match and we all know where it went from there.  It was nice for Lovren to be gifted a set-piece goal on his debut, but at the end of the day, meaningless.  He has been impressive though.

When it's your first match for your new club, regardless if it's preseason or not, and you are shouting 'orders' at your new teammates, that's impressive.  Lovren brings a much-needed presence to the club, someone who is not afraid to take command and responsibility for his side's result.  Carragher had that fire as did Reina in his first few years at the club, last season it was only Gerrard and even he wavered from even a few seasons ago.

Coutinho has been our best player so far, that assist was class and Gerrard-esque.  It's good to see the Brazilian is paying attention to his captain's endless talents.  I can't really say the same for Sterling who has been wasteful to say the least.  He has to do better when he's one-on-one on the box.  Studge is being Studge, as long as he's healthy, he's a threat to score every match.

This is about as close to European football that a friendly can get.  I'm relatively confident this isn't Dortmund's best eleven, but they have been 'spritely'.  Their pace, quickness, and passing has been trying, but our defence, save Glen Johnson on two legs and not his ass, has shut down their every opportunity.  I'm hoping Kelly or me Uncle Joe comes on in the second half for our challenged fullback.

The rest of the side has been 'adequate' but going up 2-0 in the first fifteen minutes seemed to take a little off from both sides.  Since then, Dortmund seems less driven to score and Liverpool more content to take the result.  Hopefully it'll open up in the second half and we'll see another goal or two from Liverpool.  It would be especially nice to see Lambert find the back of the net.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Three 'lesser known' strikers who could help us win the Prem

Aritz Aduriz
Yes, Aduriz is 33 and has never played out of Spain, but I never claimed to be 'realistic' about these possible signings, they are 'wishful thinking' at best.  He is coming off a career year though, in fact, three of the last four seasons have been the best for the Bilbao striker.  His 16 goals and 8 assists last season means he created nearly a goal every 90 minutes and his chance created value of 0.258 is simply mind-bottling.

He does have a few negatives though, first and foremost he posted a ridiculously bad 61.5% pass success percentage last season.  It was a career low and most players usually improve their passing stats as they get older.  He also lack pace which should be no surprise considering his age, but we have Sturridge and Sterling so we don't necessarily need more speed.

Dario Cvitanich
Another Argentine striker, Cvitanich had a very impressive season the year before last with 19 goals and 2 assists in just 29 matches, giving him a goal created per 90 of 0.81 or 4 goals every 5 matches.  The Nice striker 'fell off the pace' last year only netting 8 times in 31 appearances, but may have regained his form with a brace today in the opening Ligue 1 match for Nice against Toulouse.  Cvitanich is a great finisher, especially outside of the box.  Here's a taste of what he could offer:

Stefan Kießling
Kießling is probably the best esoteric striker in Germany.  How can a player who has scored 84 goals and posted a 0.75 goals created per 90 min average in the past five seasons in the Bundesliga be so uncoveted?  He may only be 1.91 m (6'3"), but it's as if he's the Peter Crouch of German football.  His inconsistency may be one reason, the Lichtenfels native has been up and down his whole career, for example posting 25, 7, 16, 25, and 15 goals the past five seasons.  His passing is subpar as well with a career percentage of 69.1%.

The most impressive thing about Kießling is his magic skills, how he got this goal to be counted is still a revelation:

Is Gerrard's best season yet to come?

Statistically speaking, last season was our captain's most impressive.  He set career bests in assists per 90 minutes, chance created value, successful pass percentage, successful cross percentage, goal-to-shot ratio, true turnover index, and team goals scored while on pitch per 90 minutes (take a breath).  His next closest season was 2008-09, also the last time Liverpool finished second,  when he set career marks in goals scored per 90, goals created per 90, and goals-on-pitch-difference.  The common factor between those two campaigns was Gerrard's role in the side.

It seems to me, when Gerrard is not under pressure to create goals, he is at his finest.  He is not a natural goal scorer or finisher, he possesses the ability to do his part, but he lacks the touch and finesse of even a moderately good poacher.  The funny thing is, when he is allowed to do what he does best, roam between the boxes trying to control the tempo and ball movement, he creates goals anyhow.  His specialty is long passes and through balls, which is why we need another target for him other than Sturridge.  Sterling and Ibe have the pace to benefit, but aren't great finishers either.

No matter what, our captain has to show some discipline and continue to play the holding midfielder role.  He cannot get frustrated and try to force things like he has in the past, hopefully the maturity he has displayed the last couple of seasons will continue to strengthen.  Ever since Rodgers has arrived, Gerrard seems more content with his position and confident in his abilities as a world class passer.  One of the biggest mistakes Rafa Benitez made was playing Gerrard wherever he needed him because he knew Gerrard would be 'adequate' there.  I don't disagree with putting the team before the player, but not playing to your best player's strengths is borderline suicidal.

If he is allowed to be midfield maestro next season, he should post some of his best numbers ever.  With Can and Henderson there to be 'true' box-to-boxers, it should allow Gerrard to stay back and patiently control the match with or without the ball.  Our defence has to improve and that starts with the midfield.  Stevie-G has to recognize when a defender has gone too far forward and cover for them, a tongue-lashing would be nice as well, but sometimes throwing a 'different' player forward offsets the opponent and creates more good than bad.  Of course the most important number of all, that being the most points on the Prem table, is the only one Gerrard or any other Liverpool player should care about.

Is this free 'World Class' striker the solution?

It's getting to the point that almost any signing that can contribute more than Aspas did last season will have to do, but what if there were a proven, experienced striker still out there and he wouldn't cost Liverpool a dime?  Well, there is, and his name is Samuel Eto'o.

For those who think that the Cameroonian legend is past it, look no further than his production last season for Chelsea.  He may be 33, but he's still got the ability to post respectable numbers.  Here's his output from last season:

npg90ap90gc90cc90pass%sacc%shot%tti90gopd
0.620.140.761.530.7610.4410.15311.30.02

He basically created three goals every four matches, not too bad for an 'old man', and he turned over the ball less than Sterling or Suarez.

Apparently he is currently in talks with Ajax, which is interesting because he allegedly was asking too high of wages from interested clubs.  Ajax is not going to pay him an exorbitant salary and LFC could easily pay him more.

He would obviously just be around for a season, which may not appeal to him, but he's only needed to 'buy time' until Origi returns or another long term option is found.  I really don't see what we have to lose, if he ends up a failure, oh well, we got him on a free, if he makes a splash, he was a 'genius buy'.  Even if he repeats his output from last season, 9 goals and 2 assists in about fourteen-and-a-half matches worth of minutes, it'll be well worth sigining him up.

Friday, August 8, 2014

Is Gonzalo Higuaín worth more than Suárez?

We all know Ronaldo and Messi are the cream of the European football crop, but number three is up for grabs with Luis Suárez and Gonzalo Higuaín among the top candidates.  Most people believe the Uruguayan is the clear cut choice, but a closer look at their performance data may lead to a change of mind.

The fact is, Higuaín is the superior player when it comes to the numbers.  The Argentine is considered to be more of a 'poacher' while most believe Suárez is the more complete player, but the stats tell a different story.  Both players have benefited by playing most of their careers at 'big' clubs.  Ajax may not seem like as 'big' a club as it was 20 years ago, but it still attracts some of the best young talent in the world and was absolutely loaded the years El Conejo Loco played there.  His teammates included Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Jan Vertonghen, Urby Emanuelson, Thomas Vermaelen, Dennis Rommedahl, Maarten Stekelenburg, and Gregory van der Wiel among others.

Also, it could be argued that Suarez prospered from playing in a lesser league where his 'world class' talents allowed him to dominant his 'lesser' opponents while Higuain had to deal with the superior defences of La Liga.  Not to mention that the Eredivisie is an 'attacker's paradise' where players tend to rack up more impressive offensive stats than any other league in Europe.

Here are their accumulative stats since the 2006-07 seasons:
npg90ap90gc90cc90ccvpass%sacc%shot%TTI90gopd
Higuaín0.730.311.091.380.230.8080.5180.44912.270.11
Suárez0.620.170.872.500.090.7530.4070.29617.370.09

Higuaín takes almost every stat except chances created, but his chance created value is far superior.  In fact, one out of every four of his chances finds the back of the net while only one out of eleven for Suarez result in a goal.  That is one of the best ccvs I have ever seen and really sums up what Higuain is, efficient.  It's not that Suarez lacks in precision, but he fails in comparison to his Argentine counterpart.

The one thing Suarez does better, though is hard to quantify, is create chances for himself.  Though it doesn't really show self-created chances, the former Liverpool man has a successful dribble rate of 2.88 per 90 at 38% while the Napoli striker posts a 1.40 sdr90 at 47%.  Once again, Higuain is more efficient, though only completes half as many take-ons per ninety minutes.

To answer the question of this post though, no, I don't think Higuain is worth more than Suarez.  Numbers aren't everything and if you put the latter on the worst team in any league, I firmly believe he would make a bigger impact than the former.  Suarez doesn't need highly-skilled teammates to make a difference, but they obviously help.  Higuain is more efficient and can make a good team great, but I highly doubt he would be able to lead a team like Stoke to a Champions League spot.  He would make Liverpool more of a contender though, but £80m?  Messi is the only player worthy of that amount, but if we could somehow get Napoli to agree to half that, Rodgers would be crazy not to break the bank for him.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Striker solution? This 'once-linked', former Barça prospect, could be a quality buy

Despite being 'pre-season' and meaningless, last night's match exposed our need for another striker.  Waiting for the magical boots to turn on and make Lambert the answer just won't hack it.  The problem is there isn't much else out there, certainly nothing of Suarez' class.  We may have to 'settle' for a forward with 'potential' and most likely risk funds to do so.  One of these players is Celta Vigo's Nolito, who we've been linked to in years past.

The 27-year-old forward/winger first came to prominence playing for Segunda División B side, Écija Balompié.  His performances helped lead Écija to the league title, catching the eye of Barcelona B scouts, where he would transfer to in July 2008.  There he scored 29 goals in 108 appearances, helping them get promoted to the Segundo División for the first time this century.

Seeing the pitch just three times for the senior side, he turned down a contract offer in summer 2011 and was transferred to Benfica for £2.2m.  His first year with the Portuguese club was somewhat successful, scoring 15 goals in all competitions and helping the club win the Taça de Liga.  He also scored in his first five consecutive league matches, tying Eusébio's record for goals by a debut player in Primeira Liga.

Unfortunately the honeymoon ended and Nolito found himself as fourth choice forward at the start of 2012-13 season.  After only 6 appearances and 188 minutes the first half of the year, he was loaned to Granada CF in the January transfer window.  At the Andalusian club, he created lots of chances, but only managed one assist to go with his 3 goals, but garnered enough interest to earn a transfer to Celta Vigo for £2.2m.

His stats for the La Liga club last season are not mind-blowing, but somewhat impressive considering it was his first season there and he wasn't exactly surrounded by world class talent:
npg90gc90cc90sacc%shot%TTI90gopd
0.480.631.9441.18%14.12%11.50.29

Nolito seems to set up lots of chances for his teammates no matter where he plays, just imagine what he could do with the likes of Sturridge, Sterling, and Coutinho around him.  He also doesn't waste shot opportunities nor turnover the ball at a ridiculous rate, hence his 11.5 TTI90.  The most impressive stat though is his goals on pitch difference 90 of 0.29, when he wasn't on the pitch, Celta Vigo was destined to lose with a team gopd of -0.13.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old Spaniard is not just a poacher, but can contribute in many ways.  Other than setting others up, he is also a decent tackler, averaging 2.34 successful tackles per 90 minutes at a 48.4% rate.  He's valued at around £5m, which if we could get him for anything close, would be steal.  Recently, he said if Barcelona came calling, he would leave, I wonder if that applies to other 'big' clubs. 

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