Lazar to get off the Markovic? Liverpool to win 6-0? What the markets say...

Aston Villa to win at 11/1 seems like a decent gamble and 45.92% of all bettors agree.  Looks like a sucker bet to me and Liverpool at 1/3 isn't worth the return.  5/1 for a draw seems to high, expect Liverpool to win.

To win:
Aston Villa	11/1	45.92%
Liverpool	1/3	43.78%
Draw	5/1	10.30%

A lot of people seem to think Sterling will be the first to score and there's a nice pay off if they're right, but if I was a betting man, I'd go with Balotelli or even Gerrard.  Hopefully someone doesn't bet on Studge.

First goalscorer:
Sterling	6/1	39.02%
Balotelli	15/4	24.39%
Weimann	16/1	7.32%
Gerrard	8/1	4.88%
Coutinho	10/1	4.88%
Markovic	7/1
Lambert	7/2
Agbonlahor	14/1
Borini	6/1
Henderson	10/1
Sturridge	14/5

The market is giving Aston Villa much of a chance when it comes to the final tally.  The lowest odds for the visiting side to win is 1-0 and that's at 25/1.  Liverpool at 12/1 for 4-0 looks intriguing and a tiny wager on 6-0 at 50/1 wouldn't hurt.  Apparently most bettors think Villa will double their average goals per a match and score twice against Liverpool.  It's possible, just not very probable.  

Correct score:
Liverpool	4-2	40/1	13.89%
Liverpool	3-0	17/2	11.11%
Liverpool	3-1	11/1	8.33%
Liverpool	2-0	6/1
Liverpool	4-0	12/1
Liverpool	5-0	25/1
Liverpool	6-0	50/1

Bettors overwhelmingly think Balotelli will score at some point in the match and the 19/20 pay off shows it.  Even Markovic with a 21/10 return is not that great off odds.  Henderson at 4/1 or Lovren at 6/1 look like good wagers to me.

Anytime scorer:
Balotelli	19/20	71.43%
Lambert	6/5	9.52%
Bent	6/1	4.76%
Henderson	4/1
Lovren	6/1
Markovic	21/10

Balotelli to score 3 is awfully low at 20/1 and there's a great pay-off if either Markovic gets hot or free-kicks and penalties come into play for Gerrard.

Score hat-trick:
Balotelli	20/1
Markovic	80/1
Gerrard	50/1

Balotelli to score a brace is not that great of a payoff either, Markovic and Gerrard seem most likely again but the return is much less.  Henderson at 25/1 here seems like a decent wager.

Two or more goals:
Balotelli	9/2
Markovic	14/1
Gerrard	12/1

Bettors and bookmakers agree that Sterling will be Man of the Match, but since the pay-off isn't that great and there usually isn't much money bet on these kind of perks, it could happen.  Vlaar at 22/1 though, yeah, good luck.  The best bet is probably Balotelli at 6/1, but I like Henderson at 12/1 and Markovic as a long shot at 14/1 though the return isn't that great.

Man of the match:
Sterling	4/1	37.50%
Vlaar	22/1	25.00%
Balotelli	6/1
Gerrard	4/1
Henderson	12/1
Markovic	14/1

Finally, who do you think will most likely get shown a card?  Yeah, me too, and at 3/1 he isn't even the favorite.  Hutton and Lucas are, which isn't that surprising.

Shown a card:
Balotelli	3/1
Hutton	7/4
Lucas	7/4

The Villan to watch out for on Saturday

Aston Villa is a dreadful, mundane side.  Currently they rank as the third worst attacking side and are second worst on defence, so how have they managed seven points in their first three matches?  Well, other than being quite fortuitous, they rely heavily on their five best players setting up shop in front of the net.

The Birmingham club lives and dies by the performances and defensive cohesiveness of Guzan, Senderos, Vlaar, Westwood, and Delph.  Vlaar is the heart while Delph is the engine and Westwood is the brains of the operation.  Senderos is there just to take care of the leftovers and Guzan is the mouth, his job is to keep everyone talking.  So if you want to stop Villa from initiating attack, take Westwood out of the picture.  If Westwood can't get the ball out to Richardson or N'Zogbia or is unable to break into the Liverpool's third by himself, the Villans will curl up and die a slow death.  Delph will occasionally make a dangerous run forward, but that leaves his side thoroughly exposed on the counter, something in which Liverpool are quite adept, so he'll probably be cautious to do so on Saturday.

For Liverpool to score, they are going to have to penetrate the invisible fortress maintained by the five aforementioned Villa players.  Our best bet is to have Sterling or Coutinho or Markovic or even Suso bring the ball up on the left and go straight at Alan Hutton, if he's not already behind them after a futile attempt at defence or attack.  They are going to have to draw out Senderos and pass the ball back across in the middle to whomever is rushing forward or, God forbid, play the cross game, attempting cross after cross hoping to find Balotelli or Lambert in a welcomed spot in the box.  The latter isn't really Rodger's approach so hopefully we won't resort to such mindless Van Gaalish/'European' tactics.

Villa will rely more on Delph's athleticism to stop Liverpool's attack, which means Westwood will be relied even more on attack.  I highly doubt he'll score, but he is their best 'specialized' passer, though no where near the class of a Gerrard.  Still Liverpool need to respect his abilities and with Skrtel out, hopefully Sakho won't make too many of his runs into the opponent's half.  Lucas cannot continue his horrible form so far this season either, but at least he's more likely to stay back.  In the end. I think Liverpool will prevail, but a nice old fashion whipping would be a much-needed comfort.

Three weeks of hell? Or has the Fixture God shown mercy?

Liverpool play seven matches in three weeks starting with Villa at Anfield on Saturday.  The thing is, all seven are winnable, even with the injuries we have sustained recently.  The 2-0-1 record, 7 points, and current third place standing on the table are flattering to deceive for the Villans.  To say they've been lucky would be the understatement of the season by far.  They were manhandled at Stoke in their first match, but somehow managed a 1-0 win. They needed a red card by Newcastle to get a 0-0 result at home in week two, and barely managed to hold on against Hull at Villa Park two weekends ago.  Karma has to catch up with them at some point and history says it could very well come Saturday.

Next up we host Ludogorets on Tuesday, our easiest Champions League fixture by far.  I can see Rodgers going with a 'weaker' side in this match, hopefully Suso will play a part.  I don't know if he'll go as far as starting Borini, but he could make the bench.  Then we go to Upton Park to take on the Hammers, where Liverpool has won 7 of the last 9 matches and Rodgers has never lost to Allardyce or West Ham.   The London club has the sixth most efficient defence, but sixth worst attacking efficiency, who knows how that could change when they face the equally volatile Hull City on Monday.

Three days later, Liverpool host Middlesborough in the League Cup.  We should definitely see an 'experimental' side here.  If Markovic hasn't broken his duck by then, this will be his best opportunity.  Liverpool have not lost to the Boro at Anfield since March 6, 1976, 38 years ago and before I was born.  The two have not met since 2009, when the then Premier League side beat Liverpool 2-0 at Riverside.  I remember the dismal affair, Nabil El Zhar started for us, Xabi scored an own goal, and Tuncay sealed it in the 63rd minute.  LFC dominated the match in every aspect, winning 9 corners to Boro's 2, having 16 shots, 7 on-target to the home side's 5 and 3 respectively, 84.7% to 65.6% passing, and 72% to 28% possession, but just couldn't score.  It was one of the matches looked back on as costing Liverpool the title that season and baffled many as the Reds had just beat Real Madrid 1-0 at the Bernabeu three days earlier.

One of the harder matches of the lot is Liverpool hosting Everton the Saturday following the Boro fixture.  I'm not really that worried as much as I probably should be when it comes to hosting the lesser Liverpool club.  They have not beaten us in four years, at Anfield in 19 years, and how suspect their defence has been this season, we should be able to get the goals needed for three points.  Any result less than a win will be unacceptable and detrimental to any chance of winning the League.

If a visit from the Blue side of Merseyside isn't the hardest fixture of this bunch, the trip to Basel four days later definitely is.  Kicking off October at the defending Swiss Super League Champions in our second CL fixture isn't the worst of scenarios, but even if our squad isn't as injury depleted as it is now, we will still have fatigued players.  That'll be six matches in 19 days, only Man City have the depth to maintain a high level of football during that kind of run.  The good news is, we've never lost to Basel, that bad news is, we've never beaten Basel and we've only ever played them twice.  The 'Rotblau' currently sit atop the SSL table, are unbeaten in 7 matches with 6 wins, and lead the league in goals scored with 18.  I still think we can get a win here, but will not be too aggrieved if we only manage a draw.  Wins at home are a must in CL group play and that should be enough to get us through to the elimination round.

Finally, we end the Shine on Harvest Moon tour with a visit from West Brom.  The Baggies have baffled us the past few years, a ship that seemed to be righted with our 4-1 dismantling of the West Midlands club, but a title costly 1-1 result at the Hawthorns last February rekindled the recent pain. Before winning at Anfield in two of the last three meetings, WBA hadn't won there since 1965.  Liverpool are 3-1-4 versus West Brom in their last 8 meetings in all comps, but the Baggies have the least efficient defence in the league by quite a distance.  We should be able to end this run with three points as long as we don't beat ourselves.

EPL Fantasy Picks R4: Can't budge on Studge

I have yet to be able to adorn these fantasy picks posts with Liverpool players and now that I can, Sturridge is sidelined.  There is a plethora of chop-lickin' picks this week including Liverpool, Chelsea, Stoke, Southampton, Man U, and even Hull?

Keeper
Asmir Begovic is the best keeper in the league and has the third most efficient defence playing in front of him.  Factor in Stoke is home against Leicester on Saturday and it's a no-brainer.  The Foxes have dropped all the way to second-to-last in attack eficiency, but they should be able to get off some shots on goal, though nothing Begovic can't handle.

Alternates: Speroni (CP), Mignolet (Liv), Forster (Sou), MacGregor (Hull)

Begovic also looks like a solid long-term pick as well with Stoke's upcoming fixtures: vs Leicester, at QPR, home to Newwcastle, at Sunderland, and then hosting Swansea.  Mignolet has a lot of clean sheet chances coming up, the only worry being the massive schedule congestion coming up with Champions League and League Cup play.  LFC play a ridiculous 7 fixtures in the next 23 days.  Other decent picks are DeGea (Man U), Forster (Sou), and if you're feeling particularly cardiac-ish, Burnley's Tom Heaton has 5 weeks of clean sheet chances coming up.

Defenders
A blind monkey could probably pick a productive group of backs this week. The dream team would be Shawcross (Sto), Ivanovic (Che), Lovren (Liv), and Chester (Hull).  The almost dreamy team would be Pieters (Sto), Moreno (Liv), Davies (Hull), and Clyne (Sou).  The 'what the hell they'll probably do well' side would be Terry (Che), Dann (CP), Alderweireld (Sou), and Sakho (or Skrtel) (Liv).  Finally, the 'why not? they are worth a shot' side is Rojo (Man U), Blackett (Man U), Kelly (CP), and Wilson (Sto).  If I could only pick four, I would really role the dice and go with: Terry, Rojo, Kelly, and Pieters, just have a 'weird' feeling about those four.  Is Daley Blind (Man U) listed as a defender? If so, he's worth a shot as well.

In the long term, it's more of who to avoid from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton.  I think I'd go Shawcross, Lovren, Rojo, and oddly enough, Fonte (Sou).  The latter is also worthy of a pick this week as well.  The players I would avoid from those four clubs are Sakho (Liv), mostly because Skrtel will start when he's fit, Bardsley (Sto), Bertrand (Sou),  and Evans (Man U).  The latter three are all capable of having a solid run, but statistically least likely.

Midfielders
The elephant man's bones could pick a decent midfield this week. The ace picks are Sterling (Liv),Fabregas, Oscar, Hazard (Che), Schniederlin (Sou), Zaha (CP), DiMaria (Man U), and Mata (Man U).  Decent picks are Henderson, Gerrard (Liv), Schurrle (Che), Cazorla (Ars), MacArthur, Puncheon (CP), McGeady (Eve), Livermore, Elmohamady, Ramirez (Hull), Ward-Prowse (Sou), N'Zonzi, Whelan, Moses (Sto), Johnson, Larrson, Rodwell, Giaccherini (Sun), Brunt, Gardner, and Morrison (WBA).  Seriously, put all those names in a hat and draw, you'll probably have a better chance than anyone picking a high-scoring group.  Again, if I had a gun to my head and had to go with my gut, I'd take Sterling, Schniederlin, Zaha, and DiMaria.  If you truly want to take a gamble go with either Markovic or Lallana.

Long term picks are the same for defenders, pick from Stoke, Liverpool, Man U, and Southampton with a little sense and it should turn out fine.  The players I would avoid though are Davis, Wanyama (Sou), Herrera (Man U), Allen and Lucas (Liv).  Mainly because they are either inconsistent or not consistently in the line-up.

Forwards
Seriously, if you need help picking a few strikers for your team this week, you should probably just quit.  A dead fish on a ouija board listening to Justin Bieber could pick decent front men this round.  The prime picks are Balotelli (Liv), DeCosta (Che), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U), Pelle, Long (Sou), and Diouf (Sto).  The boss picks are Gayle (CP), Lukaku, Naismith (Eve), Hernandez, Jelavic (Hull), Crouch (Sto), Wickham (Sun), and Berahino (WBA). The 'that guy at Anfield Banter don't know squat' picks are Zarate (WHam), Dzeko (MCity), Mirallas (Eve), Flacao (Man U) and Welbeck (Ars).  If I went with my gut, I'd go with Balotelli, DeCosta, and Gayle.

My long term forwards would be Balotelli, Rooney, Pelle, Long, Diouf, and Bony (Swa).

Make sure to check and make sure your players are not injured and expected to start before the first match on Saturday.  Not my problem otherwise.  Cheers and buena suerte.

Will Liverpool 'throttle' Villa at Anfield? Will Lazar get off the 'Markovic'? Inquiring minds just exploded.

Liverpool are 13-7-5 in league matches at home versus Aston Villa since 1989, but only 1-2-2 in the last five seasons.  They went through a similar run from 1998 to 2003 when they also went 1-2-2.  Take away those two 'slumps', they are 11-3-1 the past 25 years.  Hopefully their current difficulty against the Birmingham club will come to an end after five matches as well.  The last time Liverpool finished 2nd, they lost to Villa at home the following season in the third round, a 1-3 defeat that featured a Lucas Leiva own goal, a rare Curtis Davies header, and a penalty awarded on a Gerrard foul, converted by Ashley Young.

Liverpool is 6-3-1 at home in round 4 EPL matches, their only loss being 2-1 at the hands of Tottenham 21 years ago, August 25, 1993.  A brace by Teddy 'the dirty Sheriff' Sheringham bettered an early clinical finish from new boy Nigel Clough.  The only other time they have ever met Villa in this scenario is 2000-01 with LFC prevailing 3-1.  A first half hat-trick from then 20-year-old and not yet loathed, Michael Owen, was all the home side needed.

Villa is 5-2-5 as visitors in the round four fixture in Prem history, not exactly push-overs.  In fact, they have never lost by more than a goal and have only allowed multiple goals in three of those 12 fixtures.  They've only allowed 3 goals once, an exciting clash with Spurs in 1997-98 that resulted in a 3-2 Tottenham win.  After falling behind 0-1 in the sixth minute, Dwight 'New York, New' Yorke equalized in the 27th minute and Stan 'less is' Collymore gave them the lead in the 68th, but Spurs came roaring back to win on a 77th goal from Ruel 'what the' Fox.

Finally, the previous season 2nd place finisher is 19-2-1 at home against the previous season 15th place finisher in Premier League history.  The only time a 15th has beaten a 2nd at home was in 1996-97, when Sheffield Wednesday overcame a 13th minute penalty from Alan Shearer to win 2-1.  Short-time Villa player and Pompey 'legend' Guy Whittingham scored the winning goal.  The home side in this fixture has won the last 11, outscoring the visitors by a whopping 28 to 4.  In fact, the host club has only allowed 8 goals in all 22 fixtures with 15 clean sheets and only once allowing multiple goals.  Liverpool has twice been involved and unfortunately was part of one of the draws, a 0-0 result versus Everton in 2002-03.

So what do all these numbers say?  Even without Sturridge and Villa's staunch record on the road in round four, Liverpool should prevail. I hope Rodgers gives Markovic a start and if he does, I fully expect him to get off the mark.  I'll go out on a limb and say Liverpool 3-0 with goals from Lazar, Balotelli, and Sterling.

Will the Scottish 'magic' ever return?

Liverpool's history is deeply sown with Scottish footballers.  The first squad ever was made up entirely of Scots.  Alex Raisbeck, an English-born Scottish International, is widely considered Liverpool's first 'star' player.  Some of the club's greatest players are of Scottish descent: Kenny Dalglish, Ian St. John, Graeme Souness, Billy Liddell, and Alan Hansen.  Not to mention 'legends' like Steve Nicol, John Wark, Ron Yeats, and Gary McAllister.  Last but not least, one of the greatest managers in all of football, Bill Shankly, was born in Glenbuck, East Aryshire.

For a club so woven with Scottish influence, it's been quite some time since we've had a Scottish player worth renown.  It hasn't been since the aforementioned Gary McAllister that there's been a Scottish footballer of note.  Charlie Adam was signed by Dalglish in July 2011 after inspirational performances with Rangers and Blackpool.  The following summer, he was deemed excess to the cause by newly-hired manager, Brendan Rodgers, and sold to Stoke.

Prior to Adam's signing, centre back Danny Wilson was acquired from Rangers by Hodgson in July 2010.  The 19-year-old was a highly regarded prospect and signed a three-year deal.  He made just two Prem league starts and was loaned out to Blackpool, Bristol, and lastly, Hearts.  He wound up signing with Hearts after his contract with Liverpool expired.  The now 22-year-old is still considered to have a bright future and has started for Scotland five times.  A future return to Liverpool is highly doubtful though.

The level of play and talent coming out of Scotland is just not what it used to be.  Gary Mackay-Steven, a 24-year-old winger for Dundee United and a one-time Scottish International, wet his feet with the Liverpool Academy and Reserves in the late 2000s.  Deemed to be quite the talent, injuries prevented him from proving his ability and he was released.  He made the 2011-12 PFA Scotland SPL Team of the Year and though his future seems promising in Scotland, he probably won't ever reach a higher level than the English Championship at best.

Are there any Scottish players who could one day play for Liverpool? Well, I've already revealed my love for Stevie May, but the 21-year-old probably doesn't have what it takes to be more than a third-choice striker.  Still, I can't see him doing much less than Rickie Lambert has done so far.  The big name everyone will say is Ryan Gauld.  I just don't think he has the physicality to make it in the Prem and the 1.68m lad has already struggled at his new club, Sporting Clube de Portugal.  He was demoted to the B team before ever playing for the first.  He lacks the pace, quickness, strength, and stamina of a Raheem Sterling to offset his diminutive size.

Another player on the map, who does have the physical attributes to make it in the Prem is Celtic's James Forrest.  The 23-year-old 'naturally-talented' winger has featured for the Hoops 129 times in all comps, scoring 24 goals and assisting on 21 more.  He has been compared to Everton's Aiden McGeady, whom I have followed since his days at Celtic.  I would say Forrest is more advanced than his fellow Scot at this point in their careers.  The problem with Forrest is there isn't really room on the Liverpool squad for him and at his age, if he's ever going to leave Celtic, it'll have to be sooner than later.  I'm not sure it's in his plans though.

The smart thing would be to go young and defence, which brings up John Souttar.  The 17-year-old Dundee United centre back was a regular starter for his club last season.  He is commanding in the air and makes good decisions on the ball.  Here's a video display of his talents:

I wouldn't be against Liverpool signing him next summer, we are going to need depth in defence and he's already got the size to compete in the Prem.  Not sure if he's 'ready' just yet though, but a solid Scot in the squad would be a start.

Barton is right, Welbeck is a better 'team' player than Sturridge, but...

...he's no where near as good a striker nor talented footballer. Unfortunately, when someone as controversial as Joey Barton makes such revelations, they are immediately dismissed and then buried under a slew of ad hominem recoil.  It also doesn't help that he is terrible at proving his points.  Applauding goals that could have easily been scored by most any striker with the kind of service Welbeck received last night proves nothing, especially that he is a good 'team' player.

The two biggest differences between Sturridge and Welbeck is that the former is a brilliant scorer/goal-creator while the latter is a more complete footballer, though not close to a brilliant level.  The former Man U forward is merely average on attack, he will never be spectacular, not even at Arsenal were he'll be spoon-fed goal opportunities. He is one of the better defensive forwards, stifles counters before they can come to fruition and gets back for support.  Last season he posted a defensive possession efficiency of 0.636, much better than an attack-first forward like Sturridge, who had a 0.541 dpe.

Welbeck is a better overall passer as well, posting an 87.4% completion rate last season compared to Sturridge who managed a 79.3%.  When it comes to assists and chances created, Welbeck pales in comparison.  Sturridge had 7 assists and 29 chances created compared to Welbeck who had 1 and 13 respectively.  The Liverpool forward did play 800 more minutes, 55.2% more than his United counterpart, but last time I checked, that doesn't equate 7 to 1.

Sturridge creates and scores goals at a world-class rate, while Welbeck does not.  Sturridge scored 0.83 goals and created 1.11 per 90 minutes last season, Welbeck averaged 0.55 and 0.62, not even close.  It sort of makes me scratch my head that Arsenal bought him, but I guess they were desperate.  They, like every other unbiased, somewhat intelligent manager would take Sturridge over Welbeck in a second.  No, he's not a better team player, but I'll take his goal created a match since it's much more likely to help the team win opposed to a tackle or clearance in midfield.

England will go only as far as they let Sterling take them

The Three Lions weren't very good tonight and were lucky to get the win.  The first half was forgettable at best with England putting on a clinic on how not to win a match.  Tactically, Hodgson further showed he is oblivious to, well, tactics, football, reality, etc.  Starting Sterling in the middle doesn't work if you don't have any players on the pitch who can play wide and create space for him.  In fact, the two goals were both products of our 31 on the flanks, while he seemed lost most of the time in the middle.  Not to mention he had Wilshere, Hendo, and Delph crowding him.

In the second half, England seemed more composed.  They absorbed the attempts on attack from Switzerland well, were more relaxed on the ball in general, and let the match come to them.  By the way, nearly every single legitimate goal chance for the Swiss were offside, though I believe they were only called once.  It was a decent display of defence, especially for Cahill, and even Phil Jones was adequate, though he still did his normal bonehead moves like clearing the ball and conceding a corner despite no opposition players near.

The home side dominated possession at 56% to 44% and were the better passers with a completion rate of 90.6% to England's 88.5% while completing nearly a hundred more passes overall.  Fabian Delph, who put in a solid performance, came up a pass short of perfection, going 38 for 39.  Rickie Lambert posted the highest attacking efficiency rating ever of 1.50 getting an assist on his only official touch of the match.  I am a bit baffled at why people thought Rooney had a good match, his attacking efficiency score was 0.651, while his overall was 0.635.  He was most hurt with his 17 give-aways.

In the end, it was all about Sterling being allowed to do what he does best, even if it was only for a few possessions.  If Hodgson starts Sterling in the middle again, he has to start Milner and Oxalade-Chamberlain on the wings with Sturridge up front when healthy, either Welbeck or Rooney when he isn't.  I know it's sacrilegious not to start the captain, but honestly, he doesn't deserve it anyhow.

'Special' accommodations & menu items of Giggsy and Gazzo's Hotel Football uncovered

Man United fans are in for a real treat this December when Hotel Football opens next to Old Trafford.  The 138-bed, 10-story hotel will be the first of hopefully many for Ryan Giggs and Gary Neville's business, GG Hospitality.  The two former Red Devils have traveled the world extensively and stayed in many a hotel, especially Giggs who has lived in one recently.  According to their website, their experiences have given them 'an innate understanding of what works and what doesn't' in the hospitality trade.

The press blitz for the new venture started awhile back, but what you will never find in an advert, brochure, or even press packet are the 'secret' special accommodations and menu items only available for those 'in the know'.  I came across these revelations when I infiltrated 3 past 3, the secret society for former Manchester United players.  Posing as Paul Parker, I attended a 'meeting' where I had in-depth conversations about the new venue with Nicky Butt and Paul Scholes.  They let me in on some interesting features that won't be available to the general public at the hotel.

What I found most endearing was the apparent man-love former players have for Johnny Evans.  There will be a secret suite named in his honor where, as it was put to me, 'you can get away with anything'.  I have no idea what they were implying there. There will also be a special drink named for him called the 'GoHnny Bevans' (pronounced 'Johnny Bevans'), an interesting spelling nonetheless, but it's apparently a knock-out with the ladies and really gets them in the mood.

The penthouse suite will be covertly named 'the house Dwight Yorke built'.  It will be the only personally-staffed suite with a minimally-dressed 'servant' (woman or man, your choice) and a bartender (again gender choice, shirt-optional).  Along with it's own 8-seat bar, this suite will also feature a jacuzzi and a 'secret' bathroom called the 'Rooney' room which will feature 'all the latest technologies for your pleasure'.  A personally written note from the United striker is given to each guest.

For those who can afford it, a massage therapist will be available 24 hours a day, either by room visit or in the Tommy Docherty office located in the basement.  There will also be an extensive security system with hundreds of cameras strategically placed through out the facility.  The room housing the nearly sixty monitors for those cameras is named after former club chairman Martin Edwards, a man who is known for his remarkable peeping abilities.  A concierge who is knowledgeable of all the local entertainment including a non-age discriminate 'companionship' service recommended by Wayne Rooney, will also be available and on call at all hours.

Special secret menu items at the Cafe Football include a pie called the Zaha, 'so good it'll be like shagging your manager's daughter', and the Anderson, a prawn delicacy that'll disappear so fast 'you'll never realize how much it cost.'  Special drinks include 'the Ferguson' which will, according to David Moyes, 'turn your nose red and leave you a mess to deal with', as well as the 'Van Gaal' which apparently makes you regret things you do and say almost immediately.

Now that I'm in the know, I can't wait to stay there.  Hopefully I'll get a room close to Giggsy.

Suspicious character seen leaving England training following Sturridge injury

There's been an alert issued for the individual who resembles this photo:

Officials are baffled who this person could be.  He has been labeled as 'legged and useless', but please heed all caution.  He is apparently unstable and thinks he's worth more than he actually is.  He has yet to be charged with any crime, but considered a dangerous individual except in front of goal.  If you see him, please alert local officials, but if you feel threatened, it is advised to produce a net of some sort which appears to 'freeze' him.

England officials are not confident of a conspiracy, but Rickie Lambert has been taken into questioning.  Once again, this individual has apparently learned to use all his assets, including his teeth from a certain former LFC player, and should be considered 'mouthed and dangerous'.  Take extra precaution if he appears with a female who is clearly out of his league.  Thank you for your cooperation.

'Special' accommodations & menu items of Giggsy and Gazzo's Hotel Football uncovered

Expect a big match from Balotelli versus Villa

Mario Balotelli took a little warming his first go-around in the Prem.  In fact, his first season at City was somewhat forgettable.  The first time he saw the pitch was a 3-0 loss to Arsenal at the Etihad.  He was a surprise sub, expected to be out due to injury, but he came on for the then 10-man City side in the 72nd minute for a fruitless effort to break his duck.  They were already down 2-0 and to make matters even more embarrassing, Nicklas Bendtner added a third.

His first full debut was a week later at the Molineaux.  City were more pretenders than contenders at the time and it showed.  They had yet to add some missing pieces, most notably Samir Nasri, and Balotelli actually started on the left behind Adebayor.  It was a dreadful performance for the Italian who had 5 shots, though none on-goal, was 15 of 21 passing (71.4%) and caused 17 turnovers. His only positives were 2 chances created and 2 successful tackles, as a red-faced City fell 2-1.

In his third match he finally scored, twice in fact, at the Hawthorns with both goals less than 7 minutes apart.  He then managed a straight red after 'kicking-out' while entangled with Youssuf Mulumbu.  He wouldn't score again until a hat-trick against Aston Villa at the end of December 2010, which included two pens.  He would end that season with only 6 goals, 0 assists, and 8 chances created in 17 appearances.

Flash forward to February 3, 2013.  Balotelli had made the switch to AC Milan and makes his debut at the San Siro versus Udinese.  He managed a brace, the first an ugly left-footed straggler in the box and the other a pen from a gratuitous call earned by an near-paraplegic Sharaaway.  He would go on to score in 8 of the final 10 matches played by Milan that season for a total of 12 goals in 13 matches.

So what should we expect?  A brace in his next match? Well, it's certainly probable considering it will be his first at Anfield and the opponent will be Villa, but he should be a factor in the least.  I fully expect he and Sturridge (if fit) to get at least one each.  This is the match that we need to send a message to the rest of the league and that message should be, 'We are contenders and we aren't going anywhere.'

Ballotelli business better than Man United & Falcao

I will probably never be happy that Mario Balotelli is part of our club.  Three years from now, if he's still a productive member of the squad, I'll eat my words, but his track record speaks for itself.  He grows tired of his manager, the staff, his teammates, club officials, the press and the supporters and starts acting out in the third year.  It happened at Inter, it happened at City, and most recently, it happened at Milan, where they got rid of him before he became a cancer.  If he breaks the cycle, great, but don't hold your breathe.  Let's not wait like City did, if he starts costing us matches by his behavior either on or off the pitch, I hope whomever in charge, hopefully Rodgers, puts him in the reserves dungeon and throws away the key until he can be shipped off elsewhere.  Madrid will probably come knocking by then anyhow.

No matter how it plays out though, £17.6m to sign Balotelli is a much better deal than acquiring Falcao on a year-long loan for £6.7m plus £10m salary and an option to buy him at the end of the season for an additional £40m.  Super Mario is basically a younger, faster, stronger, and more skilled verison of Falcao.  If anyone complains, like myself, that all Ballotelli can do is score goals, well, Falcao can only score less.  Plus the Italian can physically impose himself on the opposition and worry their defence to no end, creating space for teammates.  I don't see the 177cm (5'10"), 72kg (160lb) Colombian with no Premier League experience having much presence, wait until they play Stoke.

Their career club league stats are quite comparable:

	npg90	ap90	gc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	sacc%	shot%	sdr90	tti90	gopd
Balotelli	0.47	0.14	0.77	1.33	0.1	0.757	0.382	0.121	2.14	14.6	-0.46
Falcao	0.57	0.08	0.75	0.90	0.05	0.797	0.492	0.305	0.79	11.21	0.06

First things first, Falcao is four-and-a-half years older than Super Mario.  Which means he's probably at his peak and won't improve much more, not to mention he'll have to make the adjustments for the English game.  Quick, name a 28-year-old South American and/or La Liga player who came to the Premier League and made a significant impact? Don't even try to say Valencia, he's been in the league for eight years now.  The closest is probably Coloccini, but he was 26 when he signed with Newcastle and he's a defender.  Maybe Falcao will make history, but I doubt it.

Mario is a better team player and that says mountains, since we all know what kind of a 'team player' he is.  The thing is, Balotelli has the ability to be a great asset to the club as a whole, while I don't think Falcao has the capacity to do so, because if he did, he would have already done so with Porto or Atletico or Monaco.  He has never been a significant 'defending forward' and forget about setting up others on goal.  When Balotelli cares and tries, which honestly, this is his last chance to do so before he becomes a true pariah, he is eons better than his Colombian counterpart.

In the end, it won't matter though.  If Falcao scores goals and does nothing else, even have the worst efficiency in the league, the Mangoloids won't care.  I honestly think the EPL is too physical for him and can see an injury-riddled season where he gets sent packing back to Monaco in the end.

(Oh and just a quick point because I can see it coming, 16 of Falcao's last 63 league goals since joining La Liga have been penalties compared to 15 of 55 for Balotelli, so save that rubbish for your pub trash bin banter.)

Sterling stole the show, but Hendo was the Lone Ranger

I could really care less about international football at the moment.  With Gerrard no longer carrying England, it's lost a lot of it's luster, and let's face it, Norway isn't exactly a glamorous opponent. Sterling did make it quite an exhibition though.  Our diminutive winger/attacking midfielder/second forward had 67 touches in which he completed 43 0f 50 passes, 2 take-ons, 4 fouls won, 2 tackles, and a ridiculous 7 chances created, 3 more than his entire fellow countrymen combined. He also won the pen that unfortunately was the match's only goal.

Some of that was due to Sturridge's inability to get a decent shot off.  I don't want to say he's in a slump, but... he's in a slump.  It should be flattering to him that three goalless matches, one which matters not, is worrisome.  Villa come to town next, so he should get a few good shots in.  His 12 losses of possession only added to a forgettable night.

Henderson put in a valiant effort as well.  He lead the side with a 117 touches, 110 pass attempts, and 101 completions, giving him a pass completion percentage rate of 91.8%.  He was so awesome, his heat map looked the Lone Ranger:

I guess that makes Wayne Rooney, 'Tonto'. 

Spurs 0, LFC 3: Five things learnt

1. Mamadou Sakho is a bad influence.
In the first two matches, Lovren was rarely caught out of position, but against Spurs it happened twice and Liverpool were lucky not to surrender a goal.  Sakho uses his athletic ability to cloak his 'bad' positioning, but Lovren doesn't have that luxury.  It was also the first match that the Croatian played on the right.

2. You shall not pass!
Tottenham dominated possession and were able to move around the ball quite freely, that is until they got close to Liverpool's box.  Spurs managed just 9 of 22 passes into the box, that was 1.9% of their passes completed and 0.4% attempted, resulting in only 3 chances created.  Liverpool, on the other hand, attempted just 10 passes into the box (2.8%), completing 4 (1.4%), creating a chance and another that lead to a goal.

3. Sometimes efficiency doesn't matter that much
Especially when you can be effective on the counter.  All three goals came on the counter and if we are able to 'build a fort' around the box, opponents will just get frustrated.  That should lead to even more counter opportunities as we take advantage of their errors and lack of equal pace. Here are the efficiency stats for each side:

	att	def	ovr
Tottenham	0.633	0.679	0.656
Liverpool	0.54	0.645	0.593

As you can see, Tottenham were superior, they just weren't able to take advantage of their chances.  That could have been due to Liverpool's defence or Spurs' incompetence.

4. Do I really have to start calculating 'forced back passes'?

Tottenham were forced to make 94 backward passes in Liverpool's third out of 121 completed overall.  They attempted 95 and 160 respectively, which means that 38 times the ball either went out of bounds or changed possession.  It also means they were only able to continue their forward attack on 27 passes.

5. Liverpool can play defence when they want to.

28 tackles, 14 interceptions, 45 clearances, and 2 blocked shots, that's quite a line.  Not to mention the clean sheet.  The good part is we can play better and will need to when we have to play the real contenders.  The moments of communication breakdown were quite evident versus Spurs and others will punish us for that.

Sturridge remains least efficient on Liverpool, N'Zogbia now worst overall

*Only players with 180 minutes played qualify.

Sturridge is still the least overall efficient player LFC player at 0.492.  He has averaged about 12 'give-aways' per match and a 78.1% pass completion percentage.  True strikers are always going to be 'middle of the pack' at best as they take more chances and are usually out-numbered in the final third. Jovetic is the highest rated and he's 71st in the league, Sturridge ranks 155th out of 191.  Goals don't matter much, even if Sturridge had scored 10 goals in the first three matches, his per would have only went up to 0.565, good for only 126th, which happens to be Alexis Sanchez' current ranking.

The ten worst overall per:

C. N'Zogbia	0.338
L. Jutkiewicz	0.355
M. Phillips	0.358
C. Wickham	0.361
M. Biram Diouf	0.390
Kieran Tripper	0.394
C. Cole	0.399
Loic Remy	0.409
Y. Bolasie	0.419
J. Schlupp	0.420

I didn't realize N'Zogbia still played  in the league, I also can't believe he's only 28.  Seems like he's been around forever.  Loic Remy was clearly unhappy at QPR, watch how miraculously his stats go up at Chelsea.  Not only because he got out of Loftus Road, but now he's got world class service from Fabregas & Co.

Just how statistically poor was Balotelli vs Spurs?

Before all you fan boys get out your stakes out and start your trash can fires, this post isn't going to be a complete slagging of Balotelli.  Everyone has to understand the expectations that come with a name like 'Super' Mario.  Unfortunately, the fact that we didn't pay £24m for his loan move (you're chum, Falcao) won't matter, even if we had gotten him on a free, he will always be a target for the press and opposition supporters.  He didn't do himself any favors against Spurs though.

Balotelli had 34 possessions (or touches) at White Hart Lane, completed just 8 of 16 passes, took 5 shots, but only one was on-goal.  Factor in his (lack of) defensive contributions and he was accountable for 12 negative changes of possession in 61 minutes.   He did have a chance created and three clearances though.

His attacking efficiency ended up being 0.324, the worst on the team.  For perspective, Lazar Markovic who has played a similar 59 minutes, destroys 'Super' Mario with a 0.744.  Sturridge who is worst on the team among minutes played qualifiers is still better than his Italian strike-mate with a 0.532.  Even Ricky Lambert betters him with 0.625.

He had a poor debut, you can either admit it or take residence in delusion land, where Glenn Johnson is still a good right back.  When he has such matches, he has to do the one thing that can be quantified, he has to create space.  He has to be a threat, go to open areas and force the opposition defence take notice, so Sturridge, Sterling, and other teammate have room to operate.

My feed was down the past couple of days so if you want to go to any missed articles they are below:
Liverpool has played the hardest schedule, boasts the best defence
Wanted: Yaya Sanogo, for impersonating a footballer (Match Day 3 morsels)
Skrtel top defensively, Flamini take over attack & overall efficiency
Tottenham 0, Liverpool 3: Sometimes moments of madness

Liverpool has played hardest schedule, boasts best defence

Not being too pleased with defensive rating results after matches this past weekend, I decided to tweak my formula to consider strength of opponent.  Mainly I just wanted to make it so I could 'prove' Liverpool have been the best defensive side and that Man U are not as good as my ratings say.  Unfortunately, I could only manage the former.

Here are the most difficult schedules according to opponent's attack efficiency:

team	opp ape
Liverpool	0.66872
Leicester	0.65853
Burnley	0.65069
C Palace	0.62751
WBA	0.61973

I didn't even factor in home field advantage, which would more than likely pad Liverpool's lead at the top of the table considering they have played at City and at Spurs. In the end though, it is a non-factor since all clubs will have played each other home and away, but I will probably start factoring it in after match day five.

The least difficult schedules?

club	opp ape
Arsenal	0.52008
Hull City	0.53570
Chelsea	0.54696
Newcastle	0.55131
Tottenham	0.57160

Arsenal, far and away, have had the easiest walk in the park, but have only managed 5 points in 3 matches.  Is Hull relegation bound?  Their second half against Villa suggests not, but they still lost and their schedule just gets harder from here on out.

So here are the adjusted defensive rankings:

club	adj dpe
Liverpool	0.93203
Burnley	0.93190
Stoke	0.90287
Man U	0.87822
Leicester	0.87333

Burnley and Leicester are here on strength of schedule and the fact that two of their first three matches have been at home.  Stoke is apparently the real deal as they showed at City Saturday and Man U is basically here because they dominated two crap sides, only managing draws though, and lost to a somewhat decent Swansea attack.

Worst defences:

club	adj dpe
Aston Villa	0.798
Swansea	0.805
Hull City	0.806
Tottenham	0.810
Newcastle	0.816

Villa come to Anfield next and if LFC take them seriously, it should be a route.