Suso to score? Liverpool to win 3-2? What the betting markets are saying.

To win:
Man City   13/15  60.21%
Liverpool   10/3    20.64%
Draw          3/1     19.15%

Not enough money on City and too much of a pay off to expect a win/draw tomorrow, but the market isn't always right.

First to score:
Sergio Aguero      9/2    17.65%
Raheem Sterling   11/1   17.65%
No goal scorer     14/1   17.65%
Edin Dezeko         5/1    11.76%
Daniel Sturridge    7/1      8.82%

I actually like Jovetic here at 6/1, Y. Toure is good value at 7/1 but he played deep against Newcastle and think he may do the same here.  Lazar Markovic at 14/1 is a stretch, but if he makes the pitch I expect him to try his damnest to score on his debut, especially against the champs.

Other decent first to score bets: Silva 10/1, Nasri 9/1, Gerrard 14/1, & Skrtel 33/1.
Shots in the dark: Milner 22/1, Manquillo 66/1, Lazar Markovic 14/1, & Bacary Sagna 45/1
Sucker bets: Lambert 10/1 (that number is way too low) & Borini 9/1

Correct Final Score:
Liverpool 3-2   35/1   13.64%
Draw 1-1          8/1    11.36%
Draw 0-0         16/1    9.85%
Draw 2-2         14/1    9.09%
Man City 4-2   50/1    7.58%

The other favorites are City 2-1 (8/1) and City 1-0 (19/2). I am shocked that anyone thinks we will score 3 against City, their defence is just too good.  If we do win, it'll be 2-1 or 1-0, but I think we'll be lucky to get away with a draw.  The Liverpool fan in me says 'Pool 2-0, the pragmatic, intelligent football analyst says Citeh with an emphatical 3-0 win.  Sorry, but we are not on their level... yet.  If Markovic plays and shows he is the talent he's built up to be, then I will be more optimistic.

Draw No Bet:
Man City     2/5   77.78%
Liverpool  28/13  22.22%

That's not good.

Anytime Goalscorer:
Stevan Jovetic      2/1    27.78%
Daniel Sturridge  11/5   16.67%
Raheem Sterling   7/2    16.67%
David Silva          7/2      5.56%
Suso                    5/1      5.56%

Suso? Really? He was no where near the bench on match day one and now that Markovic and possibly Lallana are fit, he probably won't even be in the stands.  Jovetic is crazy at 2/1, which puts a first goalscorer bet in jeopardy as well.  Sturridge, Aguero (6/4),and Dzeko (6/4) would be my picks.  My long shots would be Coutinho (5/1), Kolarov (13/2), and Skrtel (14/1).

Man of the Match:
David Silva                12/1   56.25%
Jordan Henderson     18/1    31.25%
Sergio Aguero            7/1     12.50%

Yaya Toure (7/1), Raheem Sterling (9/1), and any goalkeeper (16/1) seem like decent bets.

Bets if you're feeling lucky:
Kolarov to score 2 or more goals 75/1
The Serbian left back is just the sort of player who has the big game against us.

Henderson to receive a card (5/1)
Henderson and Oliver have a 'history'.

Man City by a goal (11/4)
This is logically the most likely result, but logical people don't gamble much.

Fantasy Picks for Matchday 2: Tottenham, Southampton, Chelsea, Swansea, & Hull

Note: I don't play fantasy football myself, but I was asked who I would pick this week and for the next month or so (plus a few 'alternates').  So, using my vast vault of useless data, here's my picks:

Keeper
This week: Lloris (Tottenham)
Alternate: McGregor (Hull), Courtois (Chelsea)

Long term: Forster (Southampton), McGregor (Hull), Mannone (Sunderland), Krul (Newcastle)

Defenders
This week: Clyne (Southampton), Davies (Hull), Kelly (CP), Rose (Tottenham)
Alternates: Chester (Hull), Vlaar (Aston Villa), Kaboul (Tottenham), Ivanovic (Chelsea)

Long term: Clyne (Southampton), Coloccini (Newcastle), A. Williams (Swansea), Wilson (Stoke), Davies (Hull), Chester (Hull), Kelly (CP), Ward (CP), Shawcross (Sunderland), Cahill (Che)

Midfielders
This week: Hazard (Che), Shelvey (Swansea), Bentaleb (Tottenham), Schneiderlin (Southampton)
Alternates: Ince (Hull), Fabregas (Che), Ward-Prose, Tadic (Southampton), Mata (Man U)

Long term: All listed Southampton midfielders above plus S. Davis, Wanyama, & Ramirez if you are feeling extra lucky, Ince (Hull), Fabregas, Schurrle, Oscar (Che), Cabella (Newcastle), Mata, Fletcher, Young (Man U)

Forwards
This week: Adebayor (Tottenham), Costa (Chelsea)
Alternates: Bony (Swansea), Long (Southampton), Weimann (Aston Villa)

Long Term: Rooney (Man U), Jelavic (Hull), Gouffran (Newcastle), Berahino (WBA)

That's all I got, sorry a bit short on the strikers, but it what it is.

Coutinho least efficient for Liverpool, Anichebe worst in the league

Coutinho, our wee Brazilian wizard, may have just been called up by Brazil, but it's doubtfully due to his performance versus Southampton on Sunday.  He posted the worst outfield player passing rate of 75.7% and turned the ball over 17 times.  His stats combined gave him an efficiency in possession rating of 0.569 and efficiency over team score of -0.159.  There's no doubt he'll improve, he's just got to realize this isn't pre-season anymore.

Though his numbers weren't good, at least our Radagast was no where near the bottom of the efficiency tables in the Prem.  Here are the ten worst in per and eot:

Player efficiency rating

V. Anichebe	0.303
C. Wickham	0.350
C. Cole	0.367
Kieran Tripper	0.397
A. Knockaert	0.400
M. Biram Diouf	0.407
J. Puncheon	0.407
S. Pocognoli	0.418
Y. Bolasie	0.421
F. Campbell	0.423

Efficiency over team

V. Anichebe	-0.351
C. Cole	-0.338
M. Biram Diouf	-0.314
Y. Sanogo	-0.311
C. Wickham	-0.299
P. Bardsley	-0.297
A. Knockaert	-0.267
S. Pocognoli	-0.235
D. Tadic	-0.230
C. Austin	-0.207

Former Everton and current West Brom forward Victor Anichebe tops a list of a lot of other medicore front-liners to take the Golden Rubbish Bin.  Anichebe played the full 90, but only managed 33 touches and 8 completed passes at a 44.4% completion rate.  Meanwhile his partner scored a brace.

Other questions these tables bring up are how long will Sunderland wait for Wickham to find his form?  How long will Sanogo have to prove himself at Arsenal?  And is Tadic really that poor?  He didn't seem so, but the stats say different.

Dejan Lovren is the most efficient player in the EPL thus far

Individual Stats Leaders after Week One

Top ten most efficient in possession players:

S. Nasri	0.889
Y. Toure	0.868
T. Blackett	0.866
Andy King	0.852
M. Arteta	0.850
G. Barry	0.839
N. Bentaleb	0.828
V. Kompany	0.816
J. Olsson	0.813
G. Obertan	0.800

Leicester's Andy King is a surprising one here.  Gerrard came 11th with a ppe of 0.797.

Top ten most efficient defensive players:

Liam Moore	0.405
S. Dann	0.400
Curtis Davies	0.380
J. Chester	0.344
M. Jedinak	0.339
P. van Aanholt	0.339
B. Hangeland	0.333
Wes Morgan	0.319
P. Senderos	0.297
M. Kelly	0.295

Some solid players (Dann, Davies, Jedinak, & Hangeland) mixed in with some surprises who will probably play their way out of the this category.  Former LFC boy Kelly comes in tenth.

The ten most efficient overall:

D. Lovren	0.953
L. Koscielny	0.950
M. Arteta	0.925
P. Jagielka	0.922
M. Skrtel	0.919
V. Kompany	0.918
J. Chester	0.918
T. Blackett	0.918
J. Collins	0.911
W. Reid	0.911

I was shocked to see Lovren on top here.  Skrtel at fifth, not so much, with all the defensive numbers he racked up.

The top ten in effieciency over team average:

S. Dann	0.271
J. Chester	0.254
Ron Vlaar	0.253
R. Ferdinand	0.249
David Jones	0.238
J. Olsson	0.237
L. Cattermole	0.232
B. Hangeland	0.221
D. Lovren	0.208
J. Collins	0.207

This stat measures a players performance compared to his team's average, for instance, Scott Dann and Brede Hangeland's were the stars on a less than stellar Crystal Palace versus Arsenal.

- Joey Barton lead all players with 6 chances created.
- Mikel Arteta lead all players with 100 completed passes on 105 attempts (95.2%), Aaron Ramsey was the only other player to break the century mark in pass attempts with 106.
- Asmir Begovic was the only player to play a full match and complete all his pass attempts (23 for 23).
- West Ham's Cheikhou Kouyate lead all outfield players, who played 60 minutes or more, with a 96.9% pass completion rate.
- Mark Noble and Stewart Downing lead all players in successful crosses with 4 each, but Noble took just 6 attempts while Downing needed 10.
- Eden Hazard lead the league in take-ons with 9, Sterling and Cazorla tied for second with 5 apiece.
- Former Arsenal and current QPR left back, Armand Traore, was a very impressive 11 for 11 on aerial duels, making him tops in most won and best success percentage (100%).  Southampton's Graziano Pelle won the second most, going 10 for 23 while United's Chris Smalling and Erik Pieters of Stoke were 2nd in efficiency going 7 for 7 each.
- Jack Wilshere won the most fouls with 6.
- England and West Brom's Saido Berahino was the only player to score a penalty and/or a brace, but he also lead in times dispossessed at 7.  Raheem Sterling was runner-up with 6 times dispossessed and Daniel Sturridge tied with Aaron Ramsey at four times apiece.
- Adnan Januzaj lead all players with 6 direct turnovers, 2 more than any other player.
- Victor Wanyama and Mile Jedinak had the most successful tackles with 9 each.
- Sunderland's new left-back, Patrick van Aanholt is the league leader in interceptions with 8.
- Martin Skrtel's 19 clearances were enough to edge out Ryan Shawcross by one to lead all players.
- Marouane Chamakh committed 11 fouls, more than twice as many than any other player.

Mental Team Stats from Matchday One

Most efficient in possession

Man City	0.695
Arsenal	0.690
Man U	0.681
Everton	0.676
Chelsea	0.673
Liverpool	0.645

Keeping the ball away from City would be ideal.  And Jesus Navas didn't even play.

Defensive efficiency

C Palace	0.212
Sunderland	0.172
Hull City	0.150
Leicester	0.136
Swansea	0.130

Crystal Palace continues their dominating defensive form from last season, meanwhile City is 11th (0.102), Liverpool is 12th (0.100), and Man United are dead last (0.057).

Overall Efficiency

Man City	0.798
Arsenal	0.766
Chelsea	0.749
Everton	0.746
Liverpool	0.746

The most important of these three numbers taking into account all favorable actions of players (i.e. keeping possession and preventing the other side from scoring).  Arsenal is only ranked high here because of their passing, I expect them to fall rapidly as they play sides that focus more on possession-based defence instead of Palace's somewhat suicidal 'mighty fortress' stance.

Chance created value

Swansea	0.400
Crystal Palace	0.333
Chelsea	0.222
Liverpool	0.200
Everton	0.167

United is in a ton of trouble if they don't get some help on defence, Swansea has a decent attack but it's no where near the abilities of the top clubs.

Tidbits

- West Ham created the most chances of any side with 13, but failed to score.  They also connected on the most crosses with 11, while Tottenham was the only club that was unsuccessful on all their cross attempts, going 0 for 13.

- Arsenal completed the most passes with 640, 89 more than 2nd-most Chelsea, but they attempted the least amount of long balls in 34.

- QPR took the most shots (19) and tied for the most on goal (6) with Arsenal and Southampton, but failed to score.

- Liverpool lead all sides in take-ons with 15.

- Not surprising, even though Howard Webb retired, Man United 'won' the most fouls with 20.

- Only three clubs had multiple assists: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Swansea, all three sides won.

LFC at Man City: Matchday history madness

In the past 20 league meetings at City, Liverpool is 5-9-6, having failed to win at the Etihad in six years, losing 3 of the last 4.  Prior to then, the Reds had suffered three total loses there in 17 years.  Last season they met on Boxing Day with a mystery offside call and a controversial non-call on a penalty shout for Suarez denying LFC a draw and/or possible win.

Their annual league date at City has occurred on week two of the season twice in the past 23 years with Man City winning both ties.  The first was in 1991 at Maine Road with the home side winning 2-1 and the other was in 2010-2011 at Eastlands with City winning 3-0, thanks in part to a brace by Carlos Tevez.

Liverpool is 7-6-7 in their last 20 week two matches away, but have won their last two, at Villa last season and at Emirates in 2011-12.  Of their five wins prior, they've won the league 4 of those times they've won their week two road fixture.

Man City is 9-4-7 in week two fixtures overall for the past 20 seasons.  They have not lost at home in week 2 for 25 years though, posting a 9-2-0 record over that span.  Their last week two loss at home was 1-2 to Southampton in 1989.

The previous season number two is 4-7-9 in their away fixture at the previous season league champion in the past 20 years. Here's an interesting stat, the four times the previous second place side has won, they've gone on to win the league.  Prior to the last two seasons, the defending champs had won five straight, five of six, and was undefeated in 10 (6-4-0).

So what does this say about next Monday's match? Well, history is not on Liverpool's side, that's for sure.  It's too early to make any predictions though, no idea who'll be available or if we my sign an influential player by then.

What Falcao would bring to Liverpool

If rumors are true and we are about to sign Falcao on loan for ridiculous wages, well, I guess it's better than nothing.  The 28-year-old striker does one thing really well and that is score goals.  His career non-penalty goals per 90 minutes average in league matches is 0.57, while his goal created per 90 is 0.75.  He scores a non-penalty goal every other match and creates a goal, which includes penalties, two out of every three matches.  In European competitions, he improves those numbers with a 0.89 npg90 and a gc90 of 1.07. His shot percentage, that is goals-to-shots (on or off-target), of 30.3% is one of the best percentages I've ever seen for a player with such a high volume.

As for other attacking attributes, well, don't expect much. The Colombian averages an assist every 12.5 matches and he creates almost a chance per a 90 minutes (0.90 ccp90).  His passing has improved over the years as he posted a career high 84.7% success rate last season at Monaco, though his career back pass percentage is a dreadful 58.7% and his specialized passing numbers are virtually non-existent.  He also lacks the pace and skill to dribble past defenders as he averages 0.79 successful dribbles per a 90 minutes at a 39.5% rate.

Other than his scoring efficiency, Falcao is rather useless.  Bringing him on board with the objective to increase goal-scoring ability is fine, but is a temporary fix to a problem that re-arises next summer.  Liverpool really don't have much choice, the front line needs depth.  Though it would be better to bring in a prospect like Falcao's Monaco teammate, Lucas Ocampos, that's a luxury LFC can no longer afford.

LFC 2, Southampton 1: Great? No. Good? Not really. Lucky? Probably.

When I wrote my brief analysis yesterday on Man U's loss to Swansea at Old Trafford... that'll never get old... I mentioned that they dominated possession, had outstanding passing percentages, took three times as many shots, and won two-thirds of their aerial duels, which is somewhat similar to Liverpool's performance today save shots.  The Reds were less dominate on possession though at only 56% compared to Mangoloid U's 60%.  Liverpool completed 86% of their passes, which goes without saying is excellent, and won 62% of aerial battles.  The big difference was shots.

Both Southampton and LFC took 12 shots, but the south coast side had 6 on target while Liverpool had one less.  If we allow 6 shots on target every match, we will be very fortunate to make the top 7, never mind top four or competing for the league.  Mignolet put in an outstanding performance today making some terrific saves.  With Reina gone, I just hope there aren't any repercussions from him slamming into the post on that save of Ward-Prowse's forever lobbing attempt on goal.  Brad Jones is capable, but I doubt he would have put in an equal performance.

Let's get the negative out of the way first so we can look into the magic mirror, hold hands, and color unicorns.  Johnson was a waste of space and honestly we would have done better with ten men.  He turned over the ball nearly half the times he touched it, his two shots had a better chance of hitting the hot dog man than finding the back of the net, and he passed the ball backward like he was challenging time travel.  Maybe he was trying to go back to three years ago when he wasn't as dreadful. Moreno should be ready to go next match, but if not, where's Enrique?

Speaking of fecal matter, Lucas and Allen were particularly foul, especially as the match wore on.  It was as if Lucas had just put on Allen's kit and continued his downward spiral.  The Brazilian hasn't played that poorly in a couple of seasons, maybe it was just part of his 'sell me to Napoli so I can be with me Uncle Benitez' plan.  I guess Rodgers felt Can wasn't ready to make his EPL debut, I don't see how he could do any worse than those two though.  Turnovers, indecisiveness on the ball, passing to Southampton players on crucial possessions... those aren't positive attributes for players who are supposed to be 'holding midfielders'.

Also, what happened to our defence? What happened to our field general and drill sergeant, Lovren?  It's not as if he hasn't played in the Premier League before.  Maybe he just felt sentimental towards his old club, hopefully that was the case, hopefully it's not a disease that defenders get now when they put on the LFC kit, and hopefully it has nothing to do with Rodgers' tactics.  If it's the latter, we are screwed, let'em rage, BR.  The bottom line is, our defence has to communicate better, at times they looked like a bunch of mud-wrestling Helen Kellers out there.

Finally, Coutinho had a poor match.  Every time he gained possession, he was corralled by the Saints defence and for the most part, failed to dribble or pass his way out of it.  He'd better get used to it though, he's got a target as big as Hiroshima on his back and if pressuring him takes him out of the equation, it's going to be awfully easy for opposing defences to make him a non-factor.  If there's one thing that he needs to understand is that it's okay for him to pass backward once in a while, especially when he has two or three defenders around him.  His passing today clearly suffered from trying to force things, his 76% completion rate was worst among Liverpool outfield players.

Our best players were Sterling and Gerrard with Henderson coming in third, though the latter's passing requires improvement.  Sterling should probably get man of the match just on being responsible for both goals, but Gerrard, as always, played his heart out with reckless abandon.  Our captain was all over the place defensively, and thankfully so since Lovren and Skrtel had a few momentary lapses of concentration, but the most impressive part of Gerrard's performance was his passing.  He completed 89% overall and was 10 of 13 on long passes, even though most were wasted.  Sturridge looked a little bit shaky there in the beginning and never really found his form, which is scary, but he'll come around.

Speaking of Sturridge, he once again came through with the match-winning goal.  The first match of the season and he already has a 'crucial' goal, something he did seven times last season.  And since we are on the subject, I really wish pundits and commentators would get a clue, Suarez was not as valuable as he seemed.  Yes, he scored goals, but most were meaningless, he scored exactly ZERO goals that broke a scoring draw, won, or drew a match for Liverpool last season.  Shut your ignorant pie holes, please.

Southampton deserves some credit as they were quite impressive.  They looked far from a relegation contending side, but will be a mid-table club, possibly finishing as high as seventh.  Tadić and Ward-Prowse were brilliant and I wrote prior to the match, if Clyne gets involved on attack, we could be in trouble.  Well, guess what? He did and he equalized a vivid passing display by the Saints.  In the end, Liverpool were lucky to get all three points, pulling this one off by the skin of their teeth.  We've got to improve defensively though because a master passer like Fabregas, Silva, or Ozil will tear us to pieces if we don't.

Six things learnt from LFC 2, Southampton 1

1 - Sterling can put on a Suarez-esque performance and make it meant something.  Our pint-sized powerhouse notched home the opening goal on a scintillating pass from Hendo and then got the game-winning assist on a header on to our poacher extraordinaire, the Studge.  Of all the goals and assists Suarez had last year, 31 and 12 just in case you forgot, only one assist gave Liverpool 3 points.  It took Sterling just one match to equal that this season.

2 - Sterling can put on a Suarez-esque performance, but that's not always a good thing.  His true turnover index was 17, which is about what his former teammate averaged per 90 minutes last season, but nobody cares as long as you produce goals.  The thing is Sterling is a better passer and he's 19.

3 - Speaking of cloaking a poor overall performance with a flash of brilliance, Jordan Henderson completed just 78% of his passes today (He's a career 83% passer and posted a career best 87.1% last season), was 0 for 2 on crosses, 2 of 6 on long balls, had 2 shots though none on-target, and was dispossessed 3 times.  That assist though and his tackling were enough to keep him off the shortlist for the Golden Rubbish Bin.

4 - Gerrard hasn't lost a step.  Our captain had a tackle, an interception, two clearances, created a chance, completed 89% of his passing, and was successful on 10 of 13 long balls.  Without him playing back, we would have probably allowed more goals.  Once again he proved his commitment and sacrifice to his club are unparalleled.

5 - Mignolet can be boss.  Let's hope he wants to be for 37 more league matches.  The save on Ward-Prowse's free kick and the tip that sent Pelle's shot off the post were simply class.  He did surprisingly well on set-pieces and corners as well, even though he seemed shaky at times.

6 - Manquillo is a bad ass.  His first Prem match and he commanded the right side of pitch like a ten year veteran.  He recorded 6 tackles, 5 clearances, 4 interceptions, a blocked shot, and completed 86% of his passes.

The return of Robo-Skrtel

Liverpool 2, Southampton 1: The match in stats
- Martin Skrtel had 20 clearances.  He led Liverpool and the league last season with 11.5 per 90 minutes and is well on his way to doing so again this season.  Lovren was second with 11 and Manquillo was third with 5.

- Skrtel also led the side in touches with 111, Manquillo was second with 109, and Lovren third with 86.

- Skrtel won the most aerial duels as well with 7 while Lovren was second with 6.

- Lovren led all players with an absolutely ridiculous passing rate of 96%, Skrtel was 2nd at 91%, and Gerrard third at 89%.

- Manquillo led the side with 6 tackles, Jordan Henderson was 2nd with 3.

- Gerrard completed 10 of 13 of long balls.  He lead all outfield Prem players last year with 257.

- Daniel Sturridge attempted 20 passes the entire match, Joe Allen attempted that many in 31 minutes.  Sturridge, a career 80% passer, completed 17 while Allen, a career 90% passer, completed 16.

- Raheem Sterling dribbled past 5 opponents, but was dispossessed 6 times.

-Rickie Lambert had more tackles, one, than Glen Johnson and Lucas Leiva combined.

- Every starter had at least one interception except Sturridge.  Lovren and Manquillo led the team with 4 a piece.

- No Liverpool player committed more than a single foul.  Thank you, Clattenburger.

- One of Glenn Johnson's shots landed in a rubbish bin, the other knocked an ice cream cone out of a six-year-old girl's hand.

- Lucas had a shot on target, created a chance, and dribbled past an opponent.  Either he passed a few bills to the statistician before the match or it's his Uncle Joenihno recording the numbers.

- The only other player to do as Lucas did above was Raheem Sterling, he had 3 shots on target and 2 key passes though.

Liverpool 1, Southampton 0: thoughts at the break

I don't think Koeman is 'parking the bus', but playing three defensive-minded midfielders and Southampton's overall 'conservative' approach is awfully close.  The goal, a brilliant pass by Hendo followed by a non-chalant tap through by Sterling, failed to open things up, the Saints remained disciplined, have not panicked, and have created chances to equalize.  Fortunately for Liverpool, though he has been shaky, Mignolet has come through on those occasions.

If this is the last chance for Lucas and Glen Johnson to prove their value to Rodgers, they've failed so far, Johnson especially.  The right back, playing left back, has gifted possession at least a third of the time he touches the ball.  I used to defend him, but he's clearly well past it.  I don't think he could get a match for, well, Southampton.  Unfortunately he's not doing much good for his value, it'll probably take a million pounds and a pizza for anyone to take him now.  Lucas has been much less dreadful, but at the same time, utterly useless.  Gerrard seems to be playing holding/defensive midfielder, so I don't see the point in having the Brazilian out there, Can offers much more going forward.

Speaking of poor performances, Coutinho is not in the midst of his best match by an ostrich mile.  In his defense though, he's been circled like sharks on a bloodied sea lion.  He's got to find some space out there if he's to be a factor in the second half.

Practically everyone else has played well, some great passing especially from Gerrard.  Manquillo has been all over the place and that card was complete rubbish.  If that was a card-worthy foul, half the Southampton side should be booked already, Bertrand especially.  And since we are talking about fouls, Sturridge should have gotten a free kick at the top of the box when Yoshida deliberately left his foot out to trip him.  That was just ridiculous.  Anyhow, second half about to start...

What the betting markets say: Liverpool vs Southampton

Percentage of bets placed:
Liverpool to win -240 71.17%
Draw +400 12.3%
Southampton to win +800 16.53%

First goalscorer:
Daniel Sturridge +333 52.99%
Dejan Lovren +2500 8.21%
Raheem Sterling +650 5.97%
Steven Gerrard +700 5.22%
Rickie Lambert +500 3.73%
Others 23.88%

Correct score:
Liverpool 2-0 +750 13.14%
Liverpool 2-1 +850 10.95%
Liverpool 4-0 +2000 7.3%
Liverpool 3-0 +1000 6.57%
Liverpool 3-2 +3000 6.57%
Other 55.47%

A couple of interesting surprises here, Southampton 1-0 not a popular choice and Liverpool 3-0 and 3-2 about even on bets placed.

Anytime goalscorer:
Sturridge -120 40.38%
Sterling +187 13.46%
Gerrard +260 11.54%
Lambert +137 9.62%
Coutinho +250 7.69%
Other 17.31%

Coutinho looks like a great bet here.

Man of the Match:
Sterling +600 61.11%
Coutinho +750 33.33%
Henderson +1200 2.78%
Lambert +1200 2.78%

No matter how well they play, Sterling and Henderson rarely get MotM honors.  Sturridge is the favorite at +500 though few seem to fancy him.  Lambert? Really? Wishful.

Interesting bets:
Sturridge hat-trick +2000
Sturridge score + Liverpool win +130
Liverpool to win by 1 +300

Bad bet:
Oussama Assaidi first goalscorer +700
The Moroccan  might have to buy his own ticket to the match if he's around.  Boylesports is the only site giving odds and will happily take your coin if you're feeling really, really, really lucky.

Crazy but why not? bet:
Kolo Toure first goalscorer +4000, to score +1400
It's surprising that the pay off for Toure as first goalscorer is so much higher than Assaidi considering the centre back does have a much better of chance of making the pitch, he's at least made the bench.

The most dangerous player for Southampton at Anfield

Nathaniel Clyne gets no respect.  The 23-year-old right back put up some solid attacking numbers last season and was more of a catalyst in the opponent's third than Luke Shaw or any other Saints defender.  If he is allowed to be a factor tomorrow, it will increase Southampton's chances of scoring and even winning exponentially.  They will probably push forward in limited numbers as not to suffer an 'easy' goal on the counter and an extra player to stretch the Liverpool defence would be very beneficial in that regard.

Here is the offensive output for Clyne last season:

ap90	cc90	cc90	ccv	pass%	bp%	lb90	lb%	tti90	gopd
0.19	0.19	0.58	0.143	0.816	0.41	1.26	0.542	10.73	0.42

The most impressive stat is his goals on pitch difference.  Lovren, Shaw, and especially Chambers paled in comparison.  Our new centre back posted an acceptable -0.05, Shaw was a little bit better with a 0.03, but Chambers was horrendous with a -0.59, a full goal difference than Clyne.  Did Arsenal buy the wrong right back?  I think so.

Despite the endless jokes the south coast club has endured this summer, Southampton is not without quality.  Even with Jay Rodriguez out due to injury, they will be a formidable attacking force.  The key will be how well their midfield interacts.  Most likely, Morgan Schniederlin (or Jack Cork) and Victor Wanyama will start as defensive midfielders with Gaston Ramirez, Dušan Tadić, Steven Davis, and James-Ward Prowse in front of them.  Not to be too cliché, but the Saints will look to hold on to the ball as long as possible, forcing Liverpool to come at them and hoping the Merseysiders will make a mistake.

Unfortunately for them, it will leave new boy Graziano Pellè alone at the top.  I don't expect much from the Italian striker, bar a lot of frustration, but getting him the ball in open space will put the skills of Tadić & company to test.  If they can gain any momentum, expect Nathaniel Clyne and/or Ryan Bertrand to 'bomb' forward and help out on the attacking end.  It would be 'suicidal' to do so often though as Liverpool's counter is quick and deadly.

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say Liverpool 2-1 with goals from Coutinho, Skrtel, and Shane Long.

It's fitting that the Korean 'Gerrard' helps sink Man U

What a glorious way to kick off the Prem.  With goals from Ki Sung-yeung and Gylfi Sigurdsson, Swansea took all three points at Old Trafford, winning 2-1.  The South Korean is affectionately known as 'Gerrard' and 'Kirrard' by the Asian press, a well-deserved moniker after his performance today.  The best part about his goal though is how Wilifred Bony manhandled Phil Jones to make space for Sung-yeung's shot.  He tosses the dimwitted defender aside like a limp hot god.  It's a thing of beauty.

I wonder what Van Gaal must be thinking now?  Mangoloid U dominated possession, completed 87% of their passes, had three times as many shots, and won two-thirds of aerial battles.  There's not much more they could have done.  I actually feel a little sorry for the Dutchman, if he doesn't get at least one great player in, they are going to be in trouble.  Did Herrera even play today?  Never mind, I see he committed a couple of fouls.

There's a smile on David Moyes' mug right about now that not even a sledgehammer could crush.  Van Gaal took one match to break-in the record book, first time ever in the Prem that United have lost their opening match and the first ever league win for Swansea at Old Trafford.  There are 37 more to go though, and you'd have to lower your intelligence level to a Manc not realize United will improve.

What 'history' says about the loss of Suarez

A Premiership club losing their own and the league's leading scorer from the previous campaign is nothing new, in fact, it's happened four times prior.  In 95-96, Alan Shearer set a Premier League record by scoring 31 goals for Blackburn.  The Rovers finished 7th that season and Shearer was sold to Newcastle in the summer for a world record transfer fee of £15m.  They were never really able to find a replacement and a downward spiral to relegation was sowed, coming to fruition following the 1998-99 campaign.

In 1997-98, the great Dion Dublin found the back of the net 18 times for Coventry, accounting for 39.1% of the Sky Blues' goals that season.  The total tied him atop the league charts along with Liverpool's own, Michael Owen, and Chris Sutton.  He was then bought by Villa in the summer transfer window for £5.75.

The season after he left, Coventry struggled, scoring 7 less goals overall and finishing 15th.  They tried replacing Dublin with John Aloisi, who at that time was a 22-year-old striker coming off an impressive campaign at First Division (which was the equivalent of the Championship back then) Portsmouth.  The Australian failed to fill Dublin's boots and eventually led to the club being relegated in 2001.

The next season, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Mickey Owen both scored 18 to lead the league.  Hasselbaink played for Leeds at that time and unsatisfactory contract offers forced him to put in a transfer request during the summer of 1999.  He was sold to Athletico Madrid where he had a stellar season, scoring 24 goals in 34 La Liga matches.

Leeds didn't miss him though, despite the 27-year-old Dutchman being responsible for 29% of their goals, they actually went up a spot on the table to 3rd.  The remarkable thing is they garnered 69 points, 2 more than they did during Hasselbaink's final season, despite scoring 4 less goals and allowing 9 more.  An Australian lad by the name of Kewell stepped up and filled the gap scoring 10 and (unofficially) assisting on another 13 in league play.

Finally, just two seasons ago, Robin Van Persie betrayed the Arsenal faithful, selling his soul to the Red Devils.  The 30 goals he scored in  his final season at the London club lead the league and accounted for 40.5% of the Gunner's total.  The following season Arsenal finished a spot lower at 4th despite accumulating three more points.  Their goals scored only dropped by 2, while they held their opponents to 12 less.  If Liverpool would do the latter this season, they have a good chance of winning the league, even if they score 20 goals less.

What about non-league leading scorers who were significant contributors to their club the season before leaving:

year	player	prev club	goals	club	pct	place	after
94-95	L. Ferdinand	QPR	24	61	39.34%	8th	19th
	S. Collymore	Nott Forest	22	72	30.56%	3rd	9th
	J. Klinnsman	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	7th	8th
98-99	N. Anelka	Arsenal	17	59	28.81%	2nd	2nd
05-06	Van Nistelroy	Man U	21	72	29.17%	2nd	1st
06-07	Mark Viduka	Mids'boro	14	44	31.82%	12th	13th
	Darrent Bent	Charlton	13	34	38.24%	19th	11th*
08-09	C. Ronaldo	Man U	18	68	26.47%	1st	2nd
11-12	C. Dempsey	Fulham	18	68	26.47%	9th	12th
	Yakubu	Blackburn	17	48	35.42%	19th	17th*
12-13	Gareth Bale	Tottenham	21	66	31.82%	5th	6th
	R. Lukaku	WBA (loan)	17	53	32.08%	8th	17th
	Demba Ba	Newcastle	15	45	33.33%	16th	10th

*Clubs were relegated the player's final season and this is their finishing place in the Championship the following campaign.

One thing that can be derived is that 'major' clubs take the loss of a significant attacking player much better than 'mid-table' or 'smaller' sides.  That gives hope to Liverpool, though only twice has a club increased their finishing place on the table.  Leeds in 2000-01, as mentioned above, and in 2006-07 when Mangoloid U won the league after the loss of Van Nistelroy. Another thing that should be pointed out is none of the clubs mentioned in this post featured the second leading league scorer from the previous season, whereas Liverpool have Daniel Sturridge.

Second place has been a 'bad omen' for Liverpool

In the 22 seasons of Premier League history, 11 times the previous season second-place finisher has won the league.  For those of you who are mathematically-challenged, that's 50% of the time.  Unfortunately, this has happened the last two seasons, but never three seasons in a row.  Also, Liverpool have finished 2nd twice before, in 2001-02 and 2008-09, but faultered to fifth and seventh in their respective following seasons.

In 1992-93, the inaugural Premiership season, Aston Villa finished second.  Featuring Liverpool greats Ray Houghton and Steve Staunton, as well as a young Dwight Yorke, the Villans lead the table late into March before only managing 10 points in the final 8 matches.  It was their best campaign in a dozen years and their best since.  They would finish 10th the following year.

The worst finish for a previous season second place side was Newcastle in 1997-98.  In fact, Newcastle had finished runner-up to Man United for two years in a row.  Oddly enough, the Magpies were managed by Kenny Dalglish and featured John Barnes, Ian Rush, and Dalglish's son, Paul.  John Barnes led them in league goals with 6, while Rush struggled for playing time against Alan Shearer.  Dalglish would be sacked two matches into the 98-99 season.

In 2011-12, Chelsea fell victim to the 'Liverpool curse'.  With Fernando Torres and Raul Meireles in their squad (as well as Daniel Sturridge, but he doesn't count), they went from 2nd to 6th, their worst finish under Abramovich and in ten seasons.  It lead to Andres Villas-Boas being sacked in March 2012 and Robert Di Matteo being appointed caretaker manager.  Though they did win the FA Cup, 2-1 over Liverpool might I add, and Champions League that year.

Not even the 2008-09 Chelsea side that went from runner-up to third escapes the 'jinx', though the link is minor.  Former albeit brief LFC striker, Nicolas Anelka, lead the Blues in scoring, both in the league and in all competitions, but couldn't prevent their third place finish.

It's not all black cats and broken mirrors though, Liverpool have won the First Division five times (75-76, 78-79, 85-86, 87-88, & 89-90) after finishing runners-up the previous year.  Though that only makes it 5 league titles after 13 second place finishes.

WWKD: What would Klopp do? The Luis Suarez replacement edition

It is no secret that Borussia Dortmund manager, Jürgen Klopp, is a mad genius when it comes to signing players.  He created his two-time Bundesliga-winning side by throwing together a motley crew of after-thoughts, 'big' club rejects, and lower-tier league stars.  It made me wonder whom he would go after to replace Suarez.

He was actually in a somewhat similar situation having lost Robert Lewandowski to Bayern Munich this summer.  Klopp replaced the 25-year-old Polish striker with Capocannoniere winner, Cirro Immobile of Torino.  Bit of an odd choice for Klopp, but unlike Rodgers, the German no longer has the luxury to develop players.  That's what two titles and a trip the Champions League finals does to supporter's expectations, but what if it was 2010?

That's when Klopp bought Lewandowski, a little known striker who was coming off a stellar season with Lech Poznán, when he lead the Ekstraklasa in goals scored.  He wasn't really replacing anyone, even though Nelson Valdez left the club that summer, but Klopp knew that the 54 goals his club scored the season before would never be enough to win the league.  Lucas Barrios, the team's leading scorer with 19 goals in his first season, stayed on, while Shinji Kagawa was also added.

So basically Klopp would be looking for a star player in a league that has similar style of play.  Call me cray, but the player that probably fits the bill best is Stevie May of St. Johstone in the SPL.  The 21-year-old striker has produced at every level he has played.   In 2011-12, he was loaned out to Alloa Athletic of the Scottish Third Division, where he scored 22 goals in 19 matches.  The season before last, he spent loaned at Hamilton Academical, where he found the net 25 times in 33 matches.  Last year he was one of the leading scorers in the SPL with 20 goals for the Saints.

May has an uncanny style of play, he doesn't possess great pace, but he's quick and tricky on the ball.  He also has a keen sense when to let loose, scoring goals by catching opposition defence and keepers off guard with swift and odd-angled shots.  He is also a decent passer of the ball, tying for his club lead with 5 assists.

Unfortunately, Sheffield Wednesday got to him first, but that could be a good thing.  If he continues to perform in the Championship as he has in every league he's played, Rodgers would be mental not to snatch him up.  I honestly would go ahead and buy the 21-year-old Scot and then loan him back to Wednesday.  He just seems to be one of those players who's style baffles not only opponents, but supporters as well.

Here's a video of all his goals from last season: