Friday, August 29, 2014

Sturridge dethrones Coutinho as the king of inefficiency: Liverpool stat leaders


Chances created
R. Sterling4
S. Gerrard3
Henderson3
P. Coutinho2
D. Sturridge2

Passing
Emre Can10101.000
D. Lovren1191290.922
M. Skrtel1181300.908
A. Moreno38420.905
S. Gerrard1231360.904

Shots
shsotshaccsh%
D. Sturridge830.3750.125
R. Sterling530.6000.200
Henderson200.0000.000
G. Johnson200.0000.000
L. Leiva111.0000.000
R. Lambert111.0000.000
  
Aerial duels
M. Skrtel9110.818
D. Lovren8170.471
G. Johnson340.750
S. Gerrard230.667
J. Manquillo230.667
 
Tackles
J. Manquillo6
Henderson6
D. Lovren4
S. Gerrard4
A. Moreno4
  
Interceptions
D. Lovren6
M. Skrtel6
J. Manquillo4
Henderson2
S. Gerrard2
  
Clearances
M. Skrtel25
D. Lovren17
J. Manquillo5
S. Gerrard4
L. Leiva4
  
Attacking efficiency
S. Gerrard0.797
D. Lovren0.726
M. Skrtel0.708
R. Sterling0.681
J. Allen0.672
  
Defensive efficiency
M. Skrtel0.905
D. Lovren0.896
S. Gerrard0.842
L. Leiva0.833
Emre Can0.706
  
Overall efficiency
S. Gerrard0.820
D. Lovren0.811
L. Leiva0.808
M. Skrtel0.807
Henderson0.674
  
Efficiency over team
S. Gerrard0.135
D. Lovren0.127
L. Leiva0.124
M. Skrtel0.122
Henderson-0.010
  
So only four players boast a positive EOT, which means they make up for half of the sides' positive results in possession.  If that doesn't improve, Liverpool are in a world of trouble.

Least efficient players overall
D. Sturridge0.494
P. Coutinho0.571
G. Johnson0.622
J. Manquillo0.624
R. Lambert0.625

Fantasy picks for match day 3: Newcastle, Villa, Swansea, West Ham & City are the way to go

Keepers
This week: Tim Krul (Newcastle)

Alternates: Brad Guzan (Villa), Fabianski (Swansea), Hart (Man City), De Gea (Man U), Robert Green (QPR).

Long term: De Gea, Krul, Forster (Southampton), Mannone (Sunderland)

Defenders
This week: Alan Hutton (Aston Villa), Dummett (Newcastle), Kompany (Man City), Armat (Swansea)

Alternates: Vlaar (Villa), Coloccini, Williamson (Newcastle), Williams, Rangel (Swansea), Ferdinand (QPR)

Long term: Dummett, Coloccini (Newcastle), Fonte (Southampton), O'Shea (Sunderland), Blackett, Jones (Man U)

Midfielders
This week: Barton (QPR), Nasri (Man City), Sigurdsson (Swansea), Cabella (Newcastle)

Alternates: Delph, Westwood (Villa), ColbackSissoko (Newcastle), Ki Sung-yeung (Swansea), Silva, Toure (Man City), Noble, Kouyate (West Ham)

Long term: Valencia (Man U), Larsson (Sunderland), Colback, Cabella, Sissoko (Newcastle), Schniederlin (Southampton), Gerrard, Sterling (Liverpool)

Forwards
This week: Bony (Swansea), Riviere (Newcastle)

Alternates: Dzeko, Jovetic, Aguero (Man City), Cole (Newcastle), Rooney, Van Persie (Man U)

Long term: Pelle, Long (Southampton), Wickham, Fletcher (Sunderland), Sturridge (Liverpool), Riviere, De Jong, Gouffran (Newcastle)

Pay close attention to transfer news as some may not be with their club come match time.

Obscured by Dowd: A history of the ref & LFC

Phil Dowd is the ref for this Sunday's match at White Hart Lane, here is a breakdown of his record with Liverpool.  He has refereed 57 matches featuring Liverpool Football Club in all competitions.  In those matches, LFC is 21-12-14 and have accumulated 61 cards, 57 yellows, 2 yellow-reds and 1 straight red.  Our opponents have received 88 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 2 straight reds.

Dowd has awarded 5 penalties to Liverpool all-time, 4 at Anfield and 1 on the road (funny enough coming in a loss at White Hart Lane).  Three of those came against Crystal Palace in 2004 with Milan Baros converting two.  The Czech striker had the third waved off, but he still managed a hat-trick in the 3-2 win at Anfield.

Away from Anfield, LFC is 6-4-10 under the disciplinary guidance of Mr. Dowd in all competitions, receiving 37 yellows, 1 yellow-red, and 1 straight red.  Their opponents have accumulated 40 cards, all yellow.

In Premier League play, Liverpool is 17-12-10 with Dowd, but only 4-6-9 away from Anfield.  They have received 33 cards in visiting matches (31 y, 1 y-r, 1 r) while their home opponents have been booked 29 times, all yellow.

Twice Dowd has mediated matches between Spurs and LFC at White Hart Lane, both times Tottenham won.  The first time in January 2008, a heart-breaking affair that would wind up costing Liverpool a chance at the title that season.  Up 1-0 through two-thirds of the match, Jamie Carragher headed in an own goal against the run of play and in the 91st minute, a shambolic defensive display allowed Pavlyuchenko to score the winner.

The second match occurred November 2012, also resulting in a 2-1 Spurs win.  The north London club went up 2-0 in the opening 16 minutes with goals from Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale, never looking back.  The only 'goal' Liverpool could manage was a Bale own goal in the 72nd minute.

Dowd has over seen some other significant matches including Brendan Rodgers' EPL debut as LFC manager.  In a controversial affair at the Hawthorns, Dowd awarded West Brom two ridiculous penalties and handed five cards to Liverpool players including a laughable straight red to Daniel Agger.  Another match he refereed was our 1-2 FA Cup final loss to Chelsea in May 2012.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Is Etienne Capoue the best player in the league?

Only players with 120 minutes played are considered.

- Joey Barton leads all EPL players with 10 chances created.  Eden Hazard is second with 9.
- Frazier Campbell is the league leader in pass completion percentage at 95.0%.  Asmir Begovic is second with a 94.4% rate, which is quite impressive for a keeper.  Mignolet is second among goalies with a 78.3% rate.
- Etienne Capoue has completed the most passes with 173.  Yaya Toure is second (164) and Fabregas is third (150).
- Stewart Downing has connected on the most crosses, going 8 of 19, second best are Mark Noble, Joey Barton, and Seb Larsson at 5 a-piece.
- Kaspar Schmeichel has completed and attempted the most long passes, going 23 of 65.  Joey Barton, Jason Shackell, and Phil Jagielka lead all outfield players with 16.
- Andre Schurrle has taken 11 shots, most of any player, but only one has been on-goal.
- Wilfried Bony has 4 shots-on-target, which leads the league, none of them have found the back of the net.
- With 15 successful take-ons, Eden Hazard leads the league and has more than twice as many as any other player.
- Southampton's Graziano Pelle leads with 16 aerial duels won and 36 attempted.  Agbonlahor is second with 34 attempted, but has won only 6.
- Mile Jedinak leads with 15 successful tackles.
- Phil Jones has the most interceptions with 11.  Youssouf Mulumbu is second in both tackles (12) and interceptions (10).
- Ryan Shawcross has leap-frogged Skrtel to take the lead in clearances at 30, our Slovakian has 25.
- Former Man Utd product and current Burnley midfielder, David Jones, is the most valuable player to his team posting a 0.225 efficiency over team average.  Rio Ferdinand is second with a 0.217 eot and Leicester's Andy King is third at 0.193.




CL draw: A club we've beaten every time, a club Gerrard has a grudge against, and the 'Chelsea' of Bulgaria

Though nothing will be 'easy', good fortune gifted LFC with a very manageable Champions League group.  Though we have met only three times ever, we have beaten Real Madrid each time.  The first time in the 1981 European Cup final in the Parc De Princes in France. Alan Kennedy's lone effort in the 81st minutes gave the Reds a 1-0 victory and a return to European supremacy after being dethroned by Nottingham Forest the previous two seasons.


Sergio Ramos & company will look to make amends for his club's embarassing display in their only trip ever to Anfield in March 2009.  They were dismantled by Gerrard and Torres with Andre Dossena adding further to their misery with a late goal of his own.


We were drawn against Basel in the group stage of the 2002 Champions League as well.  Both ties ended in draws, 1-1 at Anfield and 3-3 at St. Jakob-Park.  In the latter match, Gerrard was subbed for Salif Diao in one of his most embarassing career moments.

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad were founded in 2001.  They have about as much a history as Chelsea.

Sunday is looking very 'drawish' at Tottenham

Before last season's 5-0 drubbing at White Hart Lane, Liverpool had lost five straight matches there.  The Reds are 6-5-11 in 22 Premiership seasons at Tottenham.  Seven of those losses finished with a 1-2 scoreline.  Liverpool have scored 30 goals and allowed 32 at Spurs over that period.

In their 20 matches away from Anfield on match day 3, LFC is 6-5-9.  They are 1-1-0 at White Hart Lane during that time, a 0-0 draw in 2005-06 and 3-1 win in 1995-96.  In the latter match, John Barnes scored a brace to give him 100 career goals for Liverpool, while Robbie Fowler's lone goal gave him 50.

Liverpool is 6-8-5 at the previous season 6th place finisher, though that opponent has never been Spurs.

The previous season 2nd place finisher is 9-6-6 at the previous season 6th place side, though the former has only lost once in the previous 8 meetings when Liverpool beat Chelsea 4-1 in 2011-12.   Liverpool is 1-0-1 as the second place side in this situation, beating Villa 1-0 in 2009-10 and losing to Chelsea 2-1 in 02-03.

Everything points to a draw at the moment, but there's still plenty of research to be done.

Chelsea & Tottenham dominate most outstanding performances from Matchday Two

Most outstanding performances from matchday two:

Calum Chambers, Arsenal
47/49 passing, 95.9%, 1 cc, 2 tackles, 1 int, 10 clearances

Dean Marney, Burnley
62/67 passing, 92.5%, 6/7 long passes, 2 cc, 5 tackles, 4 ints, 2 clearances

Eden Hazard, Chelsea
1 goal, 48/54 passing, 88.9%, 7 cc, 6 successful take-ons, 2 sot

Cesc Fabregas, Chelsea
72/77 passes, 93.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 3 take-ons, 1 tackles

Cesar Azpilicueta, Chelsea
50/55 passes, 90.9%, 1 cc, 5 tackles, 2 ints, 6 clearances

Mile Jedinak, Crystal Palace
9/10 aerial duels, 1 cc, 6 tackles, 4 ints, 1 blocked shot

Antonio Valencia, Man United
54/59 passing, 91.5%, 1 cc, 7 tackles, 3 ints, 1 blocked shot

Joey Barton, QPR
42/50 passing, 84%, 9/13 long passes, 4 cc, 7 tackles, 2 ints

Ryan Shawcross, Stoke
1 goal, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 3 tackles, 1 int, 12 clearances, 1 blocked shot

Ashley Williams, Swansea
61/67 passes, 91%, 10/15 long passes, 2 tackles, 2 ints, 11 clearances

Emmanuel Adebayor, Tottenham
1 g, 1 ast, 38/42 passing, 90.5%, 4 cc, 2 sot, 1 take-on, 1 int, 1 clearance

Erik Lamela, Tottenham
2 assists, 43/48 passing, 89.6%, 3 cc, 5 take-ons, 3 tackles, 2 ints

Nacer Chadli, Tottenham
2 goals, 26/28 passing, 92.9%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 2 ints, 1 clearances

Eric Dier, Tottenham
1 g, 42/48 passing, 87.5%, 1 cc, 1 take-on, 7 tackles, 1 clearance

Danny Rose, Tottenham
1 assist, 59/66 passing, 89.4%, 1 cc, 5/7 aerial duels, 2 tckls, 3 ints, 4 clrs

Youssouf Mulumbu, WBA
50/58 passing, 86.2%, 1 take-on, 9 tackles, 6 ints, 1 blocked shot

Cheikhou Kouyate, West Ham
1 assist, 1 cc, 2 sot, 5/10 aerial duels, 4 take-ons, 5 tckls, 2 ints, 2 clearances


Gerrard breaks into top ten of most efficient EPL players, Lovren falls and Yaya takes top

Top attacking efficient players in the Premiership 
(must have played at least 120 minutes thus far)

ape
Y. Toure0.878
S. Nasri0.859
D. Fletcher0.825
Cesc Fàbregas0.822
F. Coloccini0.817
N. Bentaleb0.805
Eden Hazard0.804
S. Gerrard0.797
E. Adebayor0.795
T. Blackett0.795

Fletcher is a bit shocking, but he has posted a 87.3% pass rate and has only averaged 7 caused possession changes a match.  Blackett has managed an even better successful passing percentage at 88.4%.

If all players are included, despite the amount of minutes played, Sergio Aguero is king with a ridiculous 0.938 attacking efficiency.  That's what happens when you score 2 goals, post a 3/4 shot accuracy and are 10/10 on passing in 29 total minutes on the pitch.  Only a matter of time before they play the Argentine, Jovetic, and Dzeko up front at the same time and have the minnows of the Prem soiling their shorts.

Leicester's Andy King is a good example of 'levelling off''.  The Welsh midfielder dropped 22 places in rankings after facing Chelsea, the 2nd most efficient side in the EPL.  The Foxes next host Arsenal, which could go either way for King as he should have the amount of touches to show if he's as good as he was against Everton.

Top defensive efficient players
(must have played at least 120 minutes thus far)


dpe
C. Chambers0.914
R. Ferdinand0.914
M. Skrtel0.905
D. Lovren0.896
F. Coloccini0.894
Y. Toure0.884
P. Jagielka0.878
Fernando0.877
V. Kompany0.871
T. Blackett0.865

Chambers continues to impress, but I did change up the formula to be more possession-friendly, meaning the 19-year-old right back benefits greatly from playing for Arsene Wenger.  That shouldn't help Rio though as QPR is the fifth-worst possession side.  Man United should have let him stayed another season.  Skrtel leap frogs Lovren and having both centre backs in the top for says a lot about Liverpool's somewhat deficient defence. Save Gerrard, only Jordan Henderson is  ranked in the top 75 at 74.

Top overall efficient players
(must have played at least 120 minutes thus far)

ope
Y. Toure0.881
F. Coloccini0.856
C. Chambers0.840
S. Nasri0.835
T. Blackett0.830
D. Fletcher0.829
Fernando0.825
G. Barry0.821
S. Gerrard0.820
N. Bentaleb0.817

No Chelsea players? Fabregas is closest at 18th, but they are tied with City with a league best 8 players in the top 100.  It is a team sport after all.  Lovren dropped to 13th, one ahead of Skrtel.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Man United the third most efficient attacking side in the Premiership? Afraid so, but...

Most efficient attacking sides in the EPL:
ape
Man City0.700
Tottenham0.698
Man U0.690
Arsenal0.674
Chelsea0.669

City and Tottenham are not surprising here, but ManU at third? Really?  Well two things play into this, first the quality of their opponents.  Home against Swansea and at Sunderland are not very tough 'tests', the latter is eighth best in defensive efficiency so far, but they got a boost from playing West Brom.  The Cardiff club is second to last in defensive efficiency and will probably have to rely more and more on scoring goals to keep up with opponents.

Second, United are actually decent at passing and lead the league in completion percentage at 87.3%. They play at Burnley next week, so expect them to continue their competency, but once the meat of their schedule begins, their numbers should 'level out'.

Liverpool stand 6th, by the way.

Most efficient defensive sides in the EPL:
dpe
Stoke0.366
Chelsea0.350
Arsenal0.318
West Ham0.310
Hull City0.278
Stoke shouldn't be much of a surprise here considering their defence-oriented style of play and the fact that their first two opponents this season are currently the 17th (Hull) and 19th (Aston Villa) most efficient attacks.  Let's see how they fair at City this weekend before we pass judgement.

Liverpool currently sit 11th.

Most efficient overall:
per
Chelsea1.019
Arsenal0.992
Stoke0.974
Man U0.943
Tottenham0.936
Man City0.933
Liverpool0.897
Before anyone loses the plot, this measures 'efficiency', there is no 'extra' value given to goals nor to defensive errors that lead to goals.  It will even out as the season continues and opponents become more common.  The fact that Man U isn't at or near the top of the table after two matches against less-than-mediocre opposition says plenty.

Team stat stand-outs
- West Ham are the king of the crosses with a by far league best 19 successful at an also impressive 39.6% rate.  West Brom has completed the second most with 12 and Sunderland is the second most efficient at 29.0%.

- Stoke have been dominant in the air.  The Potters have won the most duels (59) at the highest success rate (65.6%).

- West Brom has been 'dispossessed' 44 times, 15 more than the next nearest club, which is surprisingly Man City.

- Aston Villa has one shot on goal in 15 attempts, it also resulted in their only goal by Andreas Weimann.

- Chelsea lead the league in goals scored, chances created, shots-on-goal, and successful dribbles.

- Stoke and Hull lead the league with 94 clearances a piece, 20 more than any other club.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Man City 3, Liverpool 1: No Jovetic of confidence

Well, that was disappointing though I can't say the result was unexpected.  We had our chances, as did they, but they were better in taking advantage and that's the difference between having a bottomless money bag and having to be fiscally sound.  Yes, we can buy great players, but not for asking price like City.  They bought Jovetic for £22m on talent alone.  Prior to today, the 24-year-old had 6 goals in 17 career matches for City, while £12m Daniel Sturridge has scored 36 in 50.  They should have never let the latter go.

The positive points were... not sure.  Honestly, I think we played well enough to lose 1-3.  It makes me question if we have the talent to compete for the league.  Players made mistakes and other than Glen Johnson, nobody was habitual in their error proneness, but we've been used to our right back's faults for a while now.  Though I don't think Manquillo starting would have made a huge difference, he would have at least gave us a chance.  Is Johnson playing amazing in training or something? I just don't understand why Rodgers started/played him today.

Moreno had a decent debut despite being blamed for the opening goal.  It was more Jovetic's superb little push-on then our new left back's inability to clear the ball which lead to the goal.  Not much could have been done there, Glen Johnson would have probably just went ahead and put it in the net for City.  The 22-year-old Spaniard debutant led the side with 4 tackles, had two take-ons, and completed 90.5% of his passes (38 of 42).

Statistically speaking, nobody truly stood out.  Mignolet lead the side with a 95% pass completion rate (19/20) including 6/7 long balls, but our Belgium keeper probably could have done a better job stopping shots.  Sturridge filled up the stat sheet with two shots on target, two chances created, three take-ons, a tackle and a clearance, but also posted a team-worst 70% passing rate. If I had to pick a player of the match for us, it would be Gerrard.  The ageless one had 2 key passes, 3 tackles, 2 clearances, an interception, an led all outfield starters with a 93% successful pass rate.

Though this match does matter in some degree, we must move on and realize that it doesn't make much difference in the title race.  Not showing up against a lower table side would concern me much more.  We didn't play all that bad, but we didn't take advantage of the opportunities afforded us, which is worrisome.  Suarez would have made no difference by the way, as he rarely showed up in matches against top competition.

Man City 1, Liverpool 0: Thoughts at the break

Until about five minutes to go, Liverpool were by far the better side.  One error then the walls come crumbling down and that was our problem last season.  We must maintain composure and regain the form we had in the first half when we were in control of the match.

I thought Coutinho looked better, but what do I know? Glen Johnson is still passing to ghosts, Joe Allen has been impressive for Joe Allen, but would like to see what Can can do.

There were some interesting calls though, the 'foul' on Henderson instead of a corner being the most obvious.

Blaming Moreno for that goal is just stupid, Jovetic sneaked up on him and knocked the ball his way.  It was a great goal from the player I actually picked to score first.

Will we be able to get back into this? Capability is without question, but unfortunately we can't take risks or City will make us pay.  Maybe it's Markovic time.  Let's see what our 'Zlatan' can do.

Impressive stats so far:
Gerrard       96% passing
Man City     1/20 on long balls

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Suso to score? Liverpool to win 3-2? What the betting markets are saying.

To win:
Man City   13/15  60.21%
Liverpool   10/3    20.64%
Draw          3/1     19.15%

Not enough money on City and too much of a pay off to expect a win/draw tomorrow, but the market isn't always right.

First to score:
Sergio Aguero      9/2    17.65%
Raheem Sterling   11/1   17.65%
No goal scorer     14/1   17.65%
Edin Dezeko         5/1    11.76%
Daniel Sturridge    7/1      8.82%

I actually like Jovetic here at 6/1, Y. Toure is good value at 7/1 but he played deep against Newcastle and think he may do the same here.  Lazar Markovic at 14/1 is a stretch, but if he makes the pitch I expect him to try his damnest to score on his debut, especially against the champs.

Other decent first to score bets: Silva 10/1, Nasri 9/1, Gerrard 14/1, & Skrtel 33/1.
Shots in the dark: Milner 22/1, Manquillo 66/1, Lazar Markovic 14/1, & Bacary Sagna 45/1
Sucker bets: Lambert 10/1 (that number is way too low) & Borini 9/1

Correct Final Score:
Liverpool 3-2   35/1   13.64%
Draw 1-1          8/1    11.36%
Draw 0-0         16/1    9.85%
Draw 2-2         14/1    9.09%
Man City 4-2   50/1    7.58%

The other favorites are City 2-1 (8/1) and City 1-0 (19/2). I am shocked that anyone thinks we will score 3 against City, their defence is just too good.  If we do win, it'll be 2-1 or 1-0, but I think we'll be lucky to get away with a draw.  The Liverpool fan in me says 'Pool 2-0, the pragmatic, intelligent football analyst says Citeh with an emphatical 3-0 win.  Sorry, but we are not on their level... yet.  If Markovic plays and shows he is the talent he's built up to be, then I will be more optimistic.

Draw No Bet:
Man City     2/5   77.78%
Liverpool  28/13  22.22%

That's not good.

Anytime Goalscorer:
Stevan Jovetic      2/1    27.78%
Daniel Sturridge  11/5   16.67%
Raheem Sterling   7/2    16.67%
David Silva          7/2      5.56%
Suso                    5/1      5.56%

Suso? Really? He was no where near the bench on match day one and now that Markovic and possibly Lallana are fit, he probably won't even be in the stands.  Jovetic is crazy at 2/1, which puts a first goalscorer bet in jeopardy as well.  Sturridge, Aguero (6/4),and Dzeko (6/4) would be my picks.  My long shots would be Coutinho (5/1), Kolarov (13/2), and Skrtel (14/1).

Man of the Match:
David Silva                12/1   56.25%
Jordan Henderson     18/1    31.25%
Sergio Aguero            7/1     12.50%

Yaya Toure (7/1), Raheem Sterling (9/1), and any goalkeeper (16/1) seem like decent bets.

Bets if you're feeling lucky:
Kolarov to score 2 or more goals 75/1
The Serbian left back is just the sort of player who has the big game against us.

Henderson to receive a card (5/1)
Henderson and Oliver have a 'history'.

Man City by a goal (11/4)
This is logically the most likely result, but logical people don't gamble much.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Fantasy Picks for Matchday 2: Tottenham, Southampton, Chelsea, Swansea, & Hull

Note: I don't play fantasy football myself, but I was asked who I would pick this week and for the next month or so (plus a few 'alternates').  So, using my vast vault of useless data, here's my picks:

Keeper
This week: Lloris (Tottenham)
Alternate: McGregor (Hull), Courtois (Chelsea)

Long term: Forster (Southampton), McGregor (Hull), Mannone (Sunderland), Krul (Newcastle)

Defenders
This week: Clyne (Southampton), Davies (Hull), Kelly (CP), Rose (Tottenham)
Alternates: Chester (Hull), Vlaar (Aston Villa), Kaboul (Tottenham), Ivanovic (Chelsea)

Long term: Clyne (Southampton), Coloccini (Newcastle), A. Williams (Swansea), Wilson (Stoke), Davies (Hull), Chester (Hull), Kelly (CP), Ward (CP), Shawcross (Sunderland), Cahill (Che)

Midfielders
This week: Hazard (Che), Shelvey (Swansea), Bentaleb (Tottenham), Schneiderlin (Southampton)
Alternates: Ince (Hull), Fabregas (Che), Ward-Prose, Tadic (Southampton), Mata (Man U)

Long term: All listed Southampton midfielders above plus S. Davis, Wanyama, & Ramirez if you are feeling extra lucky, Ince (Hull), Fabregas, Schurrle, Oscar (Che), Cabella (Newcastle), Mata, Fletcher, Young (Man U)

Forwards
This week: Adebayor (Tottenham), Costa (Chelsea)
Alternates: Bony (Swansea), Long (Southampton), Weimann (Aston Villa)

Long Term: Rooney (Man U), Jelavic (Hull), Gouffran (Newcastle), Berahino (WBA)

That's all I got, sorry a bit short on the strikers, but it what it is.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Coutinho least efficient for Liverpool, Anichebe worst in the league

Coutinho, our wee Brazilian wizard, may have just been called up by Brazil, but it's doubtfully due to his performance versus Southampton on Sunday.  He posted the worst outfield player passing rate of 75.7% and turned the ball over 17 times.  His stats combined gave him an efficiency in possession rating of 0.569 and efficiency over team score of -0.159.  There's no doubt he'll improve, he's just got to realize this isn't pre-season anymore.

Though his numbers weren't good, at least our Radagast was no where near the bottom of the efficiency tables in the Prem.  Here are the ten worst in per and eot:

Player efficiency rating
V. Anichebe0.303
C. Wickham0.350
C. Cole0.367
Kieran Tripper0.397
A. Knockaert0.400
M. Biram Diouf0.407
J. Puncheon0.407
S. Pocognoli0.418
Y. Bolasie0.421
F. Campbell0.423

Efficiency over team
V. Anichebe-0.351
C. Cole-0.338
M. Biram Diouf-0.314
Y. Sanogo-0.311
C. Wickham-0.299
P. Bardsley-0.297
A. Knockaert-0.267
S. Pocognoli-0.235
D. Tadic-0.230
C. Austin-0.207

Former Everton and current West Brom forward Victor Anichebe tops a list of a lot of other medicore front-liners to take the Golden Rubbish Bin.  Anichebe played the full 90, but only managed 33 touches and 8 completed passes at a 44.4% completion rate.  Meanwhile his partner scored a brace.

Other questions these tables bring up are how long will Sunderland wait for Wickham to find his form?  How long will Sanogo have to prove himself at Arsenal?  And is Tadic really that poor?  He didn't seem so, but the stats say different.

Dejan Lovren is the most efficient player in the EPL thus far

Individual Stats Leaders after Week One

Top ten most efficient in possession players:
S. Nasri0.889
Y. Toure0.868
T. Blackett0.866
Andy King0.852
M. Arteta0.850
G. Barry0.839
N. Bentaleb0.828
V. Kompany0.816
J. Olsson0.813
G. Obertan0.800

Leicester's Andy King is a surprising one here.  Gerrard came 11th with a ppe of 0.797.

Top ten most efficient defensive players:
Liam Moore0.405
S. Dann0.400
Curtis Davies0.380
J. Chester0.344
M. Jedinak0.339
P. van Aanholt0.339
B. Hangeland0.333
Wes Morgan0.319
P. Senderos0.297
M. Kelly0.295
Some solid players (Dann, Davies, Jedinak, & Hangeland) mixed in with some surprises who will probably play their way out of the this category.  Former LFC boy Kelly comes in tenth.

The ten most efficient overall:
D. Lovren0.953
L. Koscielny0.950
M. Arteta0.925
P. Jagielka0.922
M. Skrtel0.919
V. Kompany0.918
J. Chester0.918
T. Blackett0.918
J. Collins0.911
W. Reid0.911
I was shocked to see Lovren on top here.  Skrtel at fifth, not so much, with all the defensive numbers he racked up.

The top ten in effieciency over team average:
S. Dann0.271
J. Chester0.254
Ron Vlaar0.253
R. Ferdinand0.249
David Jones0.238
J. Olsson0.237
L. Cattermole0.232
B. Hangeland0.221
D. Lovren0.208
J. Collins0.207
This stat measures a players performance compared to his team's average, for instance, Scott Dann and Brede Hangeland's were the stars on a less than stellar Crystal Palace versus Arsenal.

- Joey Barton lead all players with 6 chances created.
- Mikel Arteta lead all players with 100 completed passes on 105 attempts (95.2%), Aaron Ramsey was the only other player to break the century mark in pass attempts with 106.
- Asmir Begovic was the only player to play a full match and complete all his pass attempts (23 for 23).
- West Ham's Cheikhou Kouyate lead all outfield players, who played 60 minutes or more, with a 96.9% pass completion rate.
- Mark Noble and Stewart Downing lead all players in successful crosses with 4 each, but Noble took just 6 attempts while Downing needed 10.
- Eden Hazard lead the league in take-ons with 9, Sterling and Cazorla tied for second with 5 apiece.
- Former Arsenal and current QPR left back, Armand Traore, was a very impressive 11 for 11 on aerial duels, making him tops in most won and best success percentage (100%).  Southampton's Graziano Pelle won the second most, going 10 for 23 while United's Chris Smalling and Erik Pieters of Stoke were 2nd in efficiency going 7 for 7 each.
- Jack Wilshere won the most fouls with 6.
- England and West Brom's Saido Berahino was the only player to score a penalty and/or a brace, but he also lead in times dispossessed at 7.  Raheem Sterling was runner-up with 6 times dispossessed and Daniel Sturridge tied with Aaron Ramsey at four times apiece.
- Adnan Januzaj lead all players with 6 direct turnovers, 2 more than any other player.
- Victor Wanyama and Mile Jedinak had the most successful tackles with 9 each.
- Sunderland's new left-back, Patrick van Aanholt is the league leader in interceptions with 8.
- Martin Skrtel's 19 clearances were enough to edge out Ryan Shawcross by one to lead all players.
- Marouane Chamakh committed 11 fouls, more than twice as many than any other player.

Mental Team Stats from Matchday One

Most efficient in possession
Man City0.695
Arsenal0.690
Man U0.681
Everton0.676
Chelsea0.673
Liverpool0.645
Keeping the ball away from City would be ideal.  And Jesus Navas didn't even play.

Defensive efficiency
C Palace0.212
Sunderland0.172
Hull City0.150
Leicester0.136
Swansea0.130
Crystal Palace continues their dominating defensive form from last season, meanwhile City is 11th (0.102), Liverpool is 12th (0.100), and Man United are dead last (0.057).

Overall Efficiency
Man City0.798
Arsenal0.766
Chelsea0.749
Everton0.746
Liverpool0.746
The most important of these three numbers taking into account all favorable actions of players (i.e. keeping possession and preventing the other side from scoring).  Arsenal is only ranked high here because of their passing, I expect them to fall rapidly as they play sides that focus more on possession-based defence instead of Palace's somewhat suicidal 'mighty fortress' stance.

Chance created value
Swansea0.400
Crystal Palace0.333
Chelsea0.222
Liverpool0.200
Everton0.167
United is in a ton of trouble if they don't get some help on defence, Swansea has a decent attack but it's no where near the abilities of the top clubs.

Tidbits
- West Ham created the most chances of any side with 13, but failed to score.  They also connected on the most crosses with 11, while Tottenham was the only club that was unsuccessful on all their cross attempts, going 0 for 13.
- Arsenal completed the most passes with 640, 89 more than 2nd-most Chelsea, but they attempted the least amount of long balls in 34.
- QPR took the most shots (19) and tied for the most on goal (6) with Arsenal and Southampton, but failed to score.
- Liverpool lead all sides in take-ons with 15.
- Not surprising, even though Howard Webb retired, Man United 'won' the most fouls with 20.
- Only three clubs had multiple assists: Chelsea, Liverpool, and Swansea, all three sides won.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

LFC at Man City: Matchday history madness

In the past 20 league meetings at City, Liverpool is 5-9-6, having failed to win at the Etihad in six years, losing 3 of the last 4.  Prior to then, the Reds had suffered three total loses there in 17 years.  Last season they met on Boxing Day with a mystery offside call and a controversial non-call on a penalty shout for Suarez denying LFC a draw and/or possible win.

Their annual league date at City has occurred on week two of the season twice in the past 23 years with Man City winning both ties.  The first was in 1991 at Maine Road with the home side winning 2-1 and the other was in 2010-2011 at Eastlands with City winning 3-0, thanks in part to a brace by Carlos Tevez.

Liverpool is 7-6-7 in their last 20 week two matches away, but have won their last two, at Villa last season and at Emirates in 2011-12.  Of their five wins prior, they've won the league 4 of those times they've won their week two road fixture.

Man City is 9-4-7 in week two fixtures overall for the past 20 seasons.  They have not lost at home in week 2 for 25 years though, posting a 9-2-0 record over that span.  Their last week two loss at home was 1-2 to Southampton in 1989.

The previous season number two is 4-7-9 in their away fixture at the previous season league champion in the past 20 years. Here's an interesting stat, the four times the previous second place side has won, they've gone on to win the league.  Prior to the last two seasons, the defending champs had won five straight, five of six, and was undefeated in 10 (6-4-0).

So what does this say about next Monday's match? Well, history is not on Liverpool's side, that's for sure.  It's too early to make any predictions though, no idea who'll be available or if we my sign an influential player by then.

Monday, August 18, 2014

What Falcao would bring to Liverpool

If rumors are true and we are about to sign Falcao on loan for ridiculous wages, well, I guess it's better than nothing.  The 28-year-old striker does one thing really well and that is score goals.  His career non-penalty goals per 90 minutes average in league matches is 0.57, while his goal created per 90 is 0.75.  He scores a non-penalty goal every other match and creates a goal, which includes penalties, two out of every three matches.  In European competitions, he improves those numbers with a 0.89 npg90 and a gc90 of 1.07. His shot percentage, that is goals-to-shots (on or off-target), of 30.3% is one of the best percentages I've ever seen for a player with such a high volume.

As for other attacking attributes, well, don't expect much. The Colombian averages an assist every 12.5 matches and he creates almost a chance per a 90 minutes (0.90 ccp90).  His passing has improved over the years as he posted a career high 84.7% success rate last season at Monaco, though his career back pass percentage is a dreadful 58.7% and his specialized passing numbers are virtually non-existent.  He also lacks the pace and skill to dribble past defenders as he averages 0.79 successful dribbles per a 90 minutes at a 39.5% rate.

Other than his scoring efficiency, Falcao is rather useless.  Bringing him on board with the objective to increase goal-scoring ability is fine, but is a temporary fix to a problem that re-arises next summer.  Liverpool really don't have much choice, the front line needs depth.  Though it would be better to bring in a prospect like Falcao's Monaco teammate, Lucas Ocampos, that's a luxury LFC can no longer afford.

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